Runningart2004 wrote:
L L wrote:
Hmm
That's about the same chance they gave Trump to win two years ago.
Still refuting the accuracy of the polls?
What was the popular vote again? Therein lies the disconnect between polls and Election Day results. Most of the state results were off within the margin of error and didnt include the impact of the Comey letter. Not saying the Comey letter changed many people’s opinion, but likely motivated more right leaning voters to head to the polls.
Facts are Trump is the least popular president at a time when the economy is zooming.
Alan
.
Wrong.
As I said repeatedly in 2016, the most accurate polls came from IBD/TIPP & the LA Times. The Cafe Press Culture Barometer has a perfect record and the Norpoth election model has been incredibly accurate. All you libs dismissed them until late into Election Night 2016. I was right then. If these polls show the Democrat winning the 2020 election, then I will mention it.
However, if the 2020 election season shows that the above mentioned indicate that Trump will win, then Trump will win. The "13 Keys" are also a good indicator as well, but we all know that Flagpole refused to believe them when it began to turn against Hillary.
2 weeks ago NBC releases a poll, shows Trump's at 45% approval (oversampling Dems by 12%) and 90% approval with Republicans. The liberals screamed in outrage, it has to be biased. And Trump was just at 47% yesterday on there. He typically fluctuates between 44%-50% on Rasmussen, and, of course, the left tries to discredit them, because they're not controlled by the liberal media.
As I mentioned yesterday, the majority of these polls are "registered voter" based- which is more inaccurate when compared to "likely voter" based. For example, within the RCP poll average, is the Quinippiac poll. They used RV, only sampled 25% Republicans vs 34% Democrats for a D+ 9 oversample. If you care to dig into the numbers, it's all there. See below.
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us09102018_demos_umvj56.pdf/