8 year presidencies have beceome the norm. So it’s very possible that if Trump is there he’ll win.
There are very few actual independent voters, most lean one way or the other. I have yet to meet an Obama voter who voted for Trump.
National elections seem to be more an exercise in exciting “your people” and getting “your people” to vote. It’s become an “us” vs “them” exercise.
This is why Trump’s approval rating will never sink much below 40%. Then you have another few % who dissaprove but will still vote for him because he’s a R. True independents might make up 5-10% of the vote. So for candidates is it easier to just get “your people” out in huge numbers or is it easier to change the minds of the wishy washy?
Alan