Galen Rupp's Days as a 5000m Runner Are Over, 2017 Looks to Be His Last at 10,000m

Doubtful Pre Doubtful wrote:

"The 77 fastest runners in the world this year at 26.2 were all born in Africa."

What is that statement based on? I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure that Galen Rupp finished 3rd at Rio! The USA also had a guy named Ward who also finished in the top 10.

Marathons are run in all kinds of weather, courses, and conditions.

What is it based on? It's based on fact.

Here are the 77 fastest marathoners in 2016 according to the subscription service tilastapaja.org.

Marathon

1 2:03:03 Kenenisa Bekele ETH

2 2:03:05 Eliud Kipchoge KEN

3 2:03:13 Wilson Kipsang KEN

4 2:03:51 Stanley Biwott KEN

5 2:04:24 Tesfaye Abera ETH

6 2:04:33 Lemi Berhanu ETH

7 2:04:46 Tsegaye Mekonnen ETH

8 2:05:13 Wilson Loyanai KEN

9 2:05:16 Sisay Lemma ETH

10 2:05:21 Daniel Wanjiru KEN

11 2:05:31 Evans Chebet KEN

12 2:05:44 Mule Wasihun ETH

13 2:05:45 Sammy Kitwara KEN

14 2:05:47 Marius Kimutai KEN

15 2:05:54 Laban Korir KEN

16 2:06:07 Ezekiel Chebii KEN

17 2:06:10 Kaan Kigen Özbilen TUR

18 2:06:11 Marius Kipserem KEN

19 2:06:22 Solomon Deksisa ETH

20 2:06:25 Felix Kandie KEN

21 2:06:26 Festus Talam KEN

22 2:06:27 Geoffrey Kirui KEN

23 2:06:40 Tadesse Abraham SUI

24 2:06:45 Abayneh Ayele ETH

24 2:06:45 Bernard Kipyego KEN

26 2:06:48 Mark Korir KEN

27 2:06:51 Frankline Chepkwony KEN

28 2:06:53 Samuel Kosgei KEN

29 2:06:56 Feyisa Lilesa ETH

30 2:06:58 Felix Kiprotich KEN

31 2:07:11 Cybrian Kotut KEN

32 2:07:20 Philemon Rono KEN

33 2:07:21 Luka Kanda KEN

34 2:07:22 Martin Kosgei KEN

35 2:07:24 Lawrence Cherono KEN

36 2:07:30 Asbel Kipsang KEN

37 2:07:34 Dickson Chumba KEN

38 2:07:37 Stephen Chemlany KEN

39 2:07:39 Victor Kipchirchir KEN

40 2:07:46 Stephen Kiprotich UGA

40 2:07:46 Ghirmay Ghebreslassie ERI

42 2:07:47 Eliud Kiptanui KEN

43 2:07:48 Abera Kuma ETH

44 2:07:49 Ernest Ngeno KEN

45 2:08:03 Micah Kogo KEN

45 2:08:03 Robert Kipkorir KEN

47 2:08:04 Gilbert Koech KEN

48 2:08:06 Abel Kirui KEN

49 2:08:07 Joel Kimurer KEN

50 2:08:11 Tilahun Regassa ETH

51 2:08:12 Amos Kipruto KEN

51 2:08:12 Peter Kirui KEN

53 2:08:14 Cosmas Lagat KEN

53 2:08:14 Dino Sefer ETH

55 2:08:17 Gebretsadik Adhana ETH

56 2:08:19 Sammy Korir KEN

56 2:08:19 Wilson Chebet KEN

58 2:08:20 Ishmael Bushendich KEN

59 2:08:23 Hillary Kipchumba KEN

60 2:08:28 Alfers Lagat KEN

61 2:08:31 Solomon Yego KEN

61 2:08:31 John Mwangangi KEN

63 2:08:34 Thomas Kiplagat KEN

64 2:08:35 Gideon Kipketer KEN

65 2:08:38 Kenneth Mungara KEN

66 2:08:39 Raymond Choge KEN

67 2:08:41 Asefa Mengistu ETH

68 2:08:47 Emmanuel Keter KEN

69 2:08:48 Limenih Getachew ETH

69 2:08:48 Yemane Adhane ETH

71 2:08:51 Pius Dominic Ondoro KEN

72 2:08:53 Yitayal Atnafu ETH

72 2:08:53 Lucas Rotich KEN

74 2:08:55 Ezekiel Omullo KEN

75 2:08:56 Jacob Kendagor KEN

76 2:08:57 Patrick Makau KEN

77 2:08:58 David Kiyeng KEN

78 2:09:01 Yuki Kawauchi JPN

78 2:09:01 Ronald Korir KEN

80 2:09:05 Reuben Kerio KEN

81 2:09:06 Edwin Koech KEN

82 2:09:16 Hisanori Kitajima JPN

82 2:09:16 Laban Mutai KEN

84 2:09:19 Alphonce Felix TAN

84 2:09:19 Nobert Kigen KEN

84 2:09:19 Philip Kimutai KEN

84 2:09:19 Chala Dechase ETH

88 2:09:20 Seboka Tola ETH

89 2:09:21 Barnabas Kiptum KEN

90 2:09:24 Mesfin Teshome ETH

90 2:09:24 Elijah Kemboi KEN

92 2:09:25 Suehiro Ishikawa JPN

92 2:09:25 Duncan Maiyo KEN

94 2:09:27 Melaku Abera ETH

94 2:09:27 Birhanu Addisie ETH

94 2:09:27 Dickson Tuwei KEN

97 2:09:28 Dominic Ruto KEN

97 2:09:28 Tujuba Megersa ETH

99 2:09:29 Geoffrey Ronoh KEN

99 2:09:29 Justus Kimutai KEN

A top 10 finish in the marathon at the Olympics is GREATLY helped by the fact that only 3 Kenyans and 3 Ethiopians are allowed to enter the race.

Let's run a marathon where 1st place gets 1 million , 2nd place 990,000, 3rd place gets 980,000 all the way down to 50th place getting 500,000 and see where Jared Ward winds up. I promise you it won't be in the top 10.

26:44...and most US guys can't krack 27:30... so like 300 meters? Or at least 100 meters if you give him credit for his ability to run under 27:10 in marathon training like last year.

Raysism wrote:

GutsIsEnough... wrote:

Maybe on the world stage but in America he is number one in the 10000 (by a mile)

No way. By 50 meters at the most.

The AlSal Plan wrote:

oh please wrote:

I think you have to trust Salazars plan for Rupp at this point.

Salazar ran himself physically into the ground. I would not trust any plan of his.

And he learned from that with Rupp which is why he is what Ritz was supposed to be. He recovered well despite huge volume. Science is the key to mastering American distance running, but the people who yearn for the days of Rodgers, Shorter, and Ryun who all had highly unscientific and self destructive training in one respect or another hold the movement back.

Spaghettimonster wrote:

26:44...and most US guys can't krack 27:30... so like 300 meters? Or at least 100 meters if you give him credit for his ability to run under 27:10 in marathon training like last year.

Raysism wrote:

No way. By 50 meters at the most.

*crack, my bad(?)

LetsRun.com wrote:

Ken Goe breaks the news at the Oregonian:"Salazar said Rupp would continue to compete in the 10,000 through 2017, but would concentrate on marathon training."

Alberto also says, "You can be effective in the 10,000 while doing marathon training. There is precedent for that. But we won't be doing all that training for a kick. And he won't be running the 5,000 anymore. That is gone."

More here:

http://www.oregonlive.com/trackandfield/index.ssf/2016/12/bronze_medalist_galen_rupp_mak.html

If Rupp wins USAs in the 10,000m this year it would be his amazing 9th straight USATF 10,000m title.

I don't even like Rupp that much, but if he manages a 9th 10,000 title this year, I'd love to see him give it one more in 2018 to see if he could make it 10 in a row. That would be special, drugs or not.

So... would you rather be able to say "I ran the 6th fastest time ever in the marathon (didn't win the race, though)" or "Look at my OLYMPIC MEDAL"

What annoys me is how Rupp said he had "unfinished business" in the 5,000M leading up to the Olympic Trials. In hindsight it appears that was empty rhetoric. And yes, it is disappointing. He was capable of being a better 5,000m runner than his record will show. I don't think he would have had to sacrifice any of his performances in the 10000M or Marathon to achieve better finishes in the 5000M DL or to at least beat Ritz's 5000M PB.

ryan foreman wrote:

What annoys me is how Rupp said he had "unfinished business" in the 5,000M leading up to the Olympic Trials. In hindsight it appears that was empty rhetoric. And yes, it is disappointing. He was capable of being a better 5,000m runner than his record will show. I don't think he would have had to sacrifice any of his performances in the 10000M or Marathon to achieve better finishes in the 5000M DL or to at least beat Ritz's 5000M PB.

Leading up to the trials Rupp hadn't won the bronze medal in the marathon. I think he's allowed to change his mind.

I love all the arm chair quarterbacking on letsrun.

Part of the fun of this site is that we all think we know what it takes to go sub 13:00 for the 5k and/or win a world champs at 5k.

It's simple. Just do some tempos, some speed work, run lots, etc...Not quite.

There is a world of elite training us hacks don't understand. To win a 5k at his level you need to have a strong kick. Training for that kick necessarily cuts into your endurance.

When you're running a 14:25 5k it's not big deal to have a good kick and endurance. You don't really know what top shape is anyways.

At the elite level, it's impossible to win a 'kicking 5k' and a marathon in the same season.

Rojo,

With all due respect, I have heard and seen comments such as yours regarding Shorter quite a bit in recent years and, to a great extent, disagree. A look at the top list is - in my mind - not truly indicative of the whole picture, given the varying degree of prize money offered, race conditions, race courses, competition, style of race (rabbit or non-rabbit?, championship or non-championship?).

A quick look at the last two years races from the World Marathon Majors (excluding Tokyo, whose results page I could not access in English to understand) reveals an interesting observation that, when I have time, I'll expand to more years and more top-tier international races involving some of these 77 fastest marathoners you alluded to.

The observations I wanted to make are as follows:

- The obvious discrepancy in winning times between non-paced versus paced races in recent years. The non-paced races are much more in line with the style of race the Frank Shorter and Bill Rodgers' of the marathoning world experienced 40+ years ago, and their winning times that were posted would be competitive in such environments to this day.

- So often we focus on the 1st-3rd place finishers at the faster WMM races (London, Berlin) where ideal races are set up for fast paces. Note that, for example, a 2:09:00 would have been top 5-7th place at London or Berlin in 2015 or 2016. Am I really to believe that the top marathoners of 40 years ago who "only" boasted lifetime pb's of 2:09-2:11 would not have been competitive in similar races? Consider Bill's 2:09:27 victory on the tough Boston Marathon course in 1979. Second place was 2:10:12, third was 2:12:30, fourth was 2:12:56. Do you really believe Bill could not have run 2:07-2:08 on a modern London or Berlin Marathon course, with 2:05 or 2:06 pacers to hold onto?

- Hearkening back to the latter portion of the above point, it is uncommon to see more than the top 2-4 finishers be at or under 2:05ish in races like London and Berlin. The remainder that finish in the 2:05-2:10 range all held onto the lead pack and pacers as long as possible before imploding. Granted, it's a large "what-if", but I actually do believe that - had a Bill Rodgers, or Frank Shorter, or Steve Jones etc. - been in a similar race to what we see today, their lifetime PB's would have been a solid 2-3 minutes faster and on this illustrious "Top 77" list. Steve Jones is, in and of himself, a great example: Chicago 1985. Jonesy took it out in 61:42 and held on for a near-miss (1s) of the world record in 2:07:13. This is very similar to the way in which a number of the 2:05-2:10's on your list were run this year, and something I would be willing to bet a high 27 to low 28 guy like Frank Shorter or Bill Rodgers would have been more than capable of, had the opportunity arose.

So, what's the point? Why did I bother to dig into this? Simply put, those guys had a philosophy and style of training 30-40 years ago that's similar to the heralded Africans of today. And, while it does not necessarily lend itself to dropping a massive 5k pb one weekend followed by a 2:05 marathon the following, if Americans of today adopted a similar strategy/workload, I would be interested to see how well they could do. After all, even a number of the fastest African's in recent years were not strictly focused on the marathon. Prime example: Geoffrey Mutai of 2011 running 2:03:02 in Boston on April 18th, a PR of 27:19 for 10km on June 26, and a NYC Marathon victory in 2:05:05 that fall.

Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to offer some "food for thought" on the matter!

Chicago (2016)

1) 2:11:23

2) 2:11:26

3) 2:12:20

4) 2:13:17

5) 2:13:35

Boston (2016)

1) 2:12:45

2) 2:13:32

3) 2:14:02

4) 2:14:05

5) 2:15:45

New York City (2016):

1) 2:07:51

2) 2:08:53

3) 2:11:23

4) 2:11:49

5) 2:12:01

London (2016)

1) 2:03:05

2) 2:03:51

3) 2:06:36

4) 2:07:46

5) 2:07:52

6) 2:09:47

7) 2:10:45

8) 2:10:52

9) 2:11:44

10) 2:11:56

Berlin (2016)

1) 2:03:03

2) 2:03:13

3) 2:05:31

4) 2:06:56

5) 2:07:47

6) 2:09:29

7) 2:09:46

8) 2:09:48

9) 2:10:01

10) 2:10:22

Chicago (2015):

1) 2:09:25

2) 2:09:50

3) 2:10:06

4) 2:10:07

5) 2:10:24

Boston (2015):

1) 2:09:15

2) 2:09:48

3) 2:10:22

4) 2:10:47

5) 2:10:49

New York City (2015):

1) 2:10:34

2) 2:10:48

3) 2:12:10

4) 2:12:36

5) 2:13:24

London (2015)

1) 2:04:42

2) 2:04:47

3) 2:05:51

4) 2:06:41

5) 2:07:18

6) 2:07:43

7) 2:09:33

8) 2:09:36

9) 2:10:10

10) 2:10:21

Berlin (2015)

1) 2:04:00

2) 2:05:21

3) 2:06:57

4) 2:07:46

5) 2:09:29

6) 2:10:28

7) 2:10:31

8) 2:10:47

9) 2:11:54

10) 2:12:28

rojo wrote:

Alternate Reality wrote:

Big mistake. Just like the mistake most American distance runners make when they say they are moving to the marathon (Ryan Hall, Ritz).

The most successful, accomplished U.S marathoner ever, Frank Shorter, continued to race in 10K and 5k distances throughout his career.

Can people please stop talking about Frank Shorter and thinking what he did applies at all today. He was a great marathoner in the 1970s when it was largely an amateur sport and there was hardly any African competition.

The 77 fastest runners in the world this year at 26.2 were all born in Africa.

So yes, his training was great when 2:10 could win the Olympics and hardly any one from Africa was any good.

1976 Olympic Marathon winning time: 2:09:55

1996 Olympic Marathon winning time: 2:12:36

2016 Olympic Marathon winning time: 2:08:44 (2nd was 2:09:55)

2:10 still puts you in the hunt. The biggest difference today is the depth and amount of rabbit support.

Alan

There is a strong possibility that Rupp will not finish in the top three in the 10k at USA's this year.

Just calling it from where I see it.

American distance running is about to change (reference Paul Chelimo's unheralded Rio 5k silver medal which Letsrun failed to see coming)

Shit is about to get real.

The AlSal Plan wrote:

oh please wrote:

I think you have to trust Salazars plan for Rupp at this point.

Salazar ran himself physically into the ground. I would not trust any plan of his.

Salazar has admitted to the mistakes he made in his own training several times. He's trained rupp for the past 14 years. It's safe to say he knows wtf he's doing

Not the point rojo was making at all, but good job moving goalposts

idiotus wrote:

The AlSal Plan wrote:

Salazar ran himself physically into the ground. I would not trust any plan of his.

Salazar has admitted to the mistakes he made in his own training several times. He's trained rupp for the past 14 years. It's safe to say he knows wtf he's doing

What is safe to say is: you are incorrect, idiot.

rojo,

Your position regarding Frank Shorter and the training- and racing- of past decades is understandable. The climate of Track & Field and Road-Racing is different. Money has invaded the sport. East Africans have become more involved. Technology has made life in many parts of the world much easier. However, the performance of American distance running has not kept pace with these changes. It was easy to blame publications with headlines of ‘Run less, Run faster’ as the cause of the abysmal 2000 USA Olympic distance squad but no one is to blame except the athletes. They are the ones that must produce on race day.

I am thankful to have been born American and the opportunities that living in this great country affords. However, just maybe American distance runners are a little too affluent, have just a little too much disposable income and can afford to attempt to purchase a level of fitness. Recreational runners and age-group competitors would be better served to leave the cell phones attached to the battery chargers and the fancy watches on the night stands and just go run. The young crowd that consider themselves elite should distance themselves from the social postings and self-promotions and focus on running.

Unfortunately, marketing is how American elites now get paid. No one is running hard each week to put food on the table. Instead of finishing college, getting a job and training at lunch as did Bill Rodgers today’s athletes train, nap, massage, and are pampered and still fail to run as fast as the guys and gals of the 1970’s and early 1980’s. The 1982 NYC Marathon is an example I use when advocating a simpler training regimen. Forty-seven guys, mostly American, broke the 2:20 barrier that day. With only a few hours left in 2016 only twenty-two American men have broken 2:20 the entire year! It is obvious the current training approach for all but a few is not working. The Hanson brothers, Nike, Mammoth benefactors and others have formed pockets of training groups in an attempt to improve performance and have placed men and women on the all-time top-10 list. Even with the catalyst American performance as a whole has failed to get back to the 1970’s level of guys under 2:20 for men and, with their increased opportunities, 2:30 for the women.

So to really study the plight of American distance running- specifically at the marathon distance- you must look at the training of Shorter, of Francie Larrieu-Smith, of Joanie, of Virgin (remember him- the XC guy with the 10,000 AR that finished 2nd at Boston?) and their peers. Because what they did WORKED.

-Norm

WaitingInTheWings wrote:

There is a strong possibility that Rupp will not finish in the top three in the 10k at USA's this year.

Just calling it from where I see it.

American distance running is about to change (reference Paul Chelimo's unheralded Rio 5k silver medal which Letsrun failed to see coming)

Shit is about to get real.

He's absolutely going to win the 10k again. Unless chelimo decides to move up and is also amazingly good at the 10k, there's no one else in America even close to rupps level

Exceptional post. Thank you.

it's likely as well that rampant drug use partly explains the East African total dominance of the time lists. Another thing is that Europeans and Americans have largely given up the pursuit, especially the Europeans. If Jones could run 2:07 in the 80s and probably could have run quite a bit faster that 1:01:42 day, with pacers and a more even pace, and many other guys could run in the 2:08s and 2:09s, we should be doing a lot better today and it would be competitive, just as our track and marathon runners proved this year at the Olympics. 5000m and 10000m speed is absolutely vital to the marathon and we have seen how many of the best at the marathon have come out of there. The exceptions, in recent years, are I believe dopers for the most part. Geb was a 26:22 guy, Bekele a 26:17 guy, Kipchoge a great 5 and 10k guy, Tergat a great 5 and 10k guy. When Hall lost contact with his speed at lower distances (when he ran 59:43, just before going to the marathon, he was actually at his career peak in ability, as he recently mentioned), he became very inconsistent at the marathon and lost his high ceiling, with the exception of one great wind-driven race at Boston.