Can Matt Centrowitz run a sub 2:12 marathon in a year? What do you guys think? It is fun to speculate the range of a world class athlete.
Can Matt Centrowitz run a sub 2:12 marathon in a year? What do you guys think? It is fun to speculate the range of a world class athlete.
Probably, but not a given.
Definitely think he'd have a pretty good shot, but the marathon's unpredictable. Take Dathan Ritzenhein for example. Take Luke Puskedra or Dathan Ritzenhein for example. Both had superior long distance pedigrees than Centro, and yet neither one even came close to sub 2:12 in their debuts. I think Ritz ran 2:14 and Puskedra ran 2:15.
By definition, anyone who runs a sub 2:12 marathon does so in less than a year.
Actually puskedra's 2:15 was his second marathon. His first was a ridiculous 2:29.
Uriel. wrote:
Can Matt Centrowitz run a sub 2:12 marathon in a year? What do you guys think? It is fun to speculate the range of a world class athlete.
Bolt's faster than him, so can Usain Bolt run a 2 hour marathon?
Just matching your ridiculous question.
0% chance. Not even if he dedicated his life to the marathon.
bigtool05 wrote:
Definitely think he'd have a pretty good shot, but the marathon's unpredictable. Take Dathan Ritzenhein for example. Take Luke Puskedra or Dathan Ritzenhein for example. Both had superior long distance pedigrees than Centro, and yet neither one even came close to sub 2:12 in their debuts. I think Ritz ran 2:14 and Puskedra ran 2:15.
"Can" vs "will". Ritz and Puskedra certainly can faster, but they have fueling/hydration issues.
blow my floats wrote:
Uriel. wrote:Can Matt Centrowitz run a sub 2:12 marathon in a year? What do you guys think? It is fun to speculate the range of a world class athlete.
Bolt's faster than him, so can Usain Bolt run a 2 hour marathon?
Just matching your ridiculous question.
Actually, it's not matching it. You've exceeded it by a huge margin. You go from the most extreme sprint event and try to compare that to a middle distance runner. A miler is already primarily aerobic as opposed to anaerobic.
Centro also has a much more suitable build for marathoning. 2:12 is probably quite reasonable expectation, and I'd say sub 2:10 too if that is what he really wanted to do. There is precedent.
Rod Dixon
jungleroy59 wrote:
Rod Dixon
That's right
No. Maybe 2:15. Maybe.
"Any miler worth his salt could run a 2:12 Marathon."
-John Walker
Rui Silva and Matt Centrowitz, Jr., are both about 5'9" and have VERY similar PRs for 800m - 5000m. Silva has a marathon PR of 2:12:16 while I believe Centrowitz, Jr., has never raced that distance.
Data below are from IAAF.org.
Silva:
PERSONAL BEST - OUTDOOR
PERFORMANCE WIND PLACE DATE
800 Metres 1:44.91 San Sebastián 20 AUG 2002
1000 Metres 2:16.30 Nice 17 JUL 1999
1500 Metres 3:30.07 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL 2002
One Mile 3:49.50 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 12 JUL 2002
2000 Metres 4:54.66 Berlin (Olympiastadion) 07 SEP 1999
3000 Metres 7:46.41 Istanbul 20 JUN 2004
5000 Metres 13:19.20 Bergen 11 JUN 2004
10,000 Metres 27:53.55 Pontevedra 02 APR 2011
Half Marathon 1:02:40 Lisboa 25 MAR 2012
Marathon 2:12:16 Berlin 29 SEP 2013
PERSONAL BEST - INDOOR
PERFORMANCE WIND PLACE DATE
800 Metres 1:46.40 Gent 19 FEB 1999
1000 Metres 2:17.36 Gent 23 FEB 2001
1500 Metres 3:34.99 Maebashi (Green Dome) 07 MAR 1999
One Mile 3:52.18 Stockholm 15 FEB 2001
2000 Metres 5:03.95 Liévin 25 FEB 2001
3000 Metres 7:39.44 Stuttgart 06 FEB 2000
5000 Metres 13:41.93 Birmingham (NIA), GBR 19 FEB 2011
Centrowitz, Jr.:
PERSONAL BEST - OUTDOOR
PERFORMANCE WIND PLACE DATE
800 Metres 1:44.62 New York City (Icahn), NY 13 JUN 2015
1000 Metres 2:16.67 Lausanne (Pontaise) 25 AUG 2016
1500 Metres 3:30.40 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 17 JUL 2015
One Mile 3:50.53 Eugene (Hayward Field), OR 31 MAY 2014
3000 Metres 8:20.09 Philadelphia, PA 28 APR 2006
5000 Metres 13:20.06 Palo Alto, CA 04 MAY 2014
PERSONAL BEST - INDOOR
PERFORMANCE WIND PLACE DATE
800 Metres 1:47.82 Albuquerque, NM 03 MAR 2013
1000 Metres 2:17.00 Boston (Roxbury), MA 07 FEB 2015
1500 Metres 3:35.91 New York (Armory), NY 20 FEB 2016
One Mile 3:50.63 New York (Armory), NY 20 FEB 2016
3000 Metres 7:40.74 Portland (House of Track), OR 05 FEB 2016
2:25 OFB. 2:20 with training.
TrackBot! PRs Matthew Centrowitz
PRs for Matthew Centrowitz:
800 m (Outdoor): 1:44.62 on 13 Jun 2015
800 m (Indoor): 1:47.82A on 3 Mar 2013
1000 m (Outdoor): 2:16.67 on 25 Aug 2016
1000 m (Indoor): 2:17.00 on 7 Feb 2015
1500 m (Outdoor): 3:30.40 on 17 Jul 2015
1500 m (Indoor): 3:35.91+ on 20 Feb 2016
One Mile (Outdoor): 3:50.53 on 31 May 2014
One Mile (Indoor): 3:50.63 on 20 Feb 2016
Mile, road (Outdoor): 3:53 on 22 Sep 2012
3000 m (Outdoor): 8:10.3h+ on 15 Jun 2007
3000 m (Indoor): 7:40.74 on 5 Feb 2016
Two Miles (Outdoor): 8:41.55 on 15 Jun 2007
Two Miles (Indoor): 9:02.05 on 10 Mar 2007
5000 m (Outdoor): 13:20.06 on 4 May 2014
5 km (Outdoor): 14:04 on 21 Sep 2014
10 km (Outdoor): 30:05 on 24 Nov 2011
4 x Mile (Outdoor): 16:03.24 on 9 May 2009
Distance Medley (Indoor): 9:19.93 on 31 Jan 2015
I am a bot. Info: habs.sdf.org/trackbot
TrackBot! VDOT 38:05 10K
Whoops.
TrackBot! VDOT 30:05 10K
VDOT for 38:05 10km: 55
Equivalent race times based on VDOT:
Marathon: 02:55:58
Half marathon: 01:24:17
15K: 00:58:33
10K: 00:38:06
5K: 00:18:22
3Mi: 00:17:42
2Mi: 00:11:28
3200m: 00:11:23
3K: 00:10:37
1Mi: 00:05:22
1600m: 00:05:19
1500m: 00:04:58
I am a bot. Info: habs.sdf.org/trackbot