Calling it now, Rupp wins Boston 2017 2:07:04, prove me wrong.

bahston runnah wrote:

bahston wrote:

I think it's a lot more likely he wins than sub 2:07. Here's the top ten winning times in the history of the Boston marathon. Only two ever sub 2:07, only seven ever sub 2:08.

2:03:02 Geoffrey Mutai 2011

2:05:52 Robert Kiprono Cheruiyot 2010

2:07:14 Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot 2006

2:07:15 Cosmas Ndeti 1994

2:07:34 Moses Tanui 1998

2:07:45 Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot 2008

2:07:51 Robert de Castella 1986

2:08:14 Ibrahim Hussein 1992

2:08:19 Gelindo Bordin 1990

2:08:37 Meb Kaflezighi 2014

Plus, the average winning time over the past 5 years is 2:10:32. If the conditions are right it can happen, but I don't think Rupp is much better than most recent Boston winners.

Remind me, how many of those runners have gone sub 27 for 10k?

Paul Koech ran 26:3x and only ran 2:07:07 in his best marathon in CHICAGO.

Nicholas Kemboi's best only 2:08

Abebe Dinkessa 2:14

Zersenay Tadesse 2:10

Plenty of examples. Rupp will not run 2:07:04 barring a heft tailwind year.

I agree. He has the potential to run 2:05-2:06 on flat course with ideal conditions. But Boston is such a crap shoot with the weather, he could possibly run sub 2:08 but also could see a 2:12 if the conditions are not right.

Bottom line is that a sub 2:08 at Boston is not an easy thing to do, even if the weather cooperates, the pacing is very important as well so that you are not cooked after the 22 mile mark. Should be interesting.

Colospgdude wrote:

Calling it now, Rupp wins Boston 2017 2:07:04, prove me wrong.

Wrong, he'll run 2:07:05. Boom.

bahston runnah wrote:

bahston wrote:

I think it's a lot more likely he wins than sub 2:07. Here's the top ten winning times in the history of the Boston marathon. Only two ever sub 2:07, only seven ever sub 2:08.

2:03:02 Geoffrey Mutai 2011

2:05:52 Robert Kiprono Cheruiyot 2010

2:07:14 Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot 2006

2:07:15 Cosmas Ndeti 1994

2:07:34 Moses Tanui 1998

2:07:45 Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot 2008

2:07:51 Robert de Castella 1986

2:08:14 Ibrahim Hussein 1992

2:08:19 Gelindo Bordin 1990

2:08:37 Meb Kaflezighi 2014

Plus, the average winning time over the past 5 years is 2:10:32. If the conditions are right it can happen, but I don't think Rupp is much better than most recent Boston winners.

Remind me, how many of those runners have gone sub 27 for 10k?

Remind me what distance the Boston marathon is ?

TrackBot! VDOT 27:09 10k

VDOT for 27:09 10km: 81.9

Equivalent race times based on VDOT:

Marathon: 02:05:01

Half marathon: 00:59:40

15K: 00:41:33

10K: 00:27:08

5K: 00:13:02

3Mi: 00:12:33

2Mi: 00:08:04

3200m: 00:08:01

3K: 00:07:28

1Mi: 00:03:47

1600m: 00:03:45

1500m: 00:03:30

I am a bot. Info: habs.sdf.org/trackbot

ChuggsBunny wrote:

bahston runnah wrote:

Remind me, how many of those runners have gone sub 27 for 10k?

Remind me what distance the Boston marathon is ?

26.2 miles. A distance in which Rupp won an Olympic medal.

He will run 2:05.01 based on his last two world championship 10,000 meter races (including Olympics). His first two marathons have been run in brutal heat at 2:11 and 2:10. Boston is bound to have better conditions.

The LRC staff goes back and forth about Rupp's Boston debut here:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2016/12/letsrun-com-breaks-galen-rupps-boston-marathon-debut-will-favorite-well-suited-course-conspiracy-theories-galore/

There is a good chance the pollen count will be high in mid April. He does not do so well during allergy season.

Boston = April. April(Boston) = Springtime. Springtime = SeasonalAllergies. Rupp = AsthmaFromSeasonalAllergies.AsthmaFromSeasonalAllergies = NonOptimalPerformanceInMarathonBoston=NonRuppCertified

Colospgdude wrote:

Calling it now, Rupp wins Boston 2017 2:07:04, prove me wrong.

I guess that's why I have to read the whole thread first. Oy.

daerg wrote:

There is a good chance the pollen count will be high in mid April. He does not do so well during allergy season.

Are those hills also non rupp certified

LetsRun.com wrote:

The LRC staff goes back and forth about Rupp's Boston debut here:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2016/12/letsrun-com-breaks-galen-rupps-boston-marathon-debut-will-favorite-well-suited-course-conspiracy-theories-galore/

Nice article - I enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts in the back-and-forth format. Entertaining and well-done.

REALLY great outcome:

Sub-2:07

OR

Win

Great outcome

Sub-2:08

OR

Top-2

Good outcome:

Sub-2:09

OR

Top-3

Okay outcome:

Sub-2:10

OR

Top-5

Not good outcome:

Not sub-2:10

AND

Outside of top-5

Why is he not entered in the Nike Sub 2 Challenge? He is their star runner.

weather channel wrote:

thegripper wrote:

I was about to start a similar thread, but no way the winning time is 2:07. It will be a tactical 2:09.

Shouldn't the weatherman have a big say in the winning time? I know he did in both 2011 and 2012. And many other years as well.

100% Sure AlSal has the weatherman by the balls.

Would love for him to do well, but I think the course will beat him up the first time.Especially if the weather/winds are unfavorable.

H. Dong wrote:

This is an adidas race. It won't be a soft field.

He doesn't win. Runs 2:10. He was dead those last 3 miles in Rio on a flat course.

He was dead, so was everyone else

Probably cause it was hot