particle collider wrote:
What I don't get is that people agree that sub 2 will happen eventually but it's impossible now. Why is that. Humans aren't evolving to be better at running but most agree it's not impossible at some later date
If they are not evolving and yet it's not impossible in the future why not soon?
We could breed humans to break two just like we bred racehorses to be light years faster and more enduring than run of the mill riding horses.
That is an interesting idea you have there. I have already thought about this idea and have already implemented a plan:
1) Tirunesh Dibaba (14:11.15 World Record 5K PR, 29:42.56 10K PR) and Sileshi Sihine (12:47.04 5K PR, 26:39.69 10K PR) had a child born in March, 2015 named Nathan Sileshi.
2) Nathan has inherited his mitochondrial DNA from Tirunesh Dibaba... which will give Nathan some of the best electron transport chain (located on the inner mitochondrial membrane) oxidative phosphorylation on planet Earth.
3) We will start out with a Phase 1 Lydiard based high volume aerobic base development at high altitude in Ethiopia and Flagstaff, Az. for the first 15 years.
4) Nathan will then start his Specific Phase 2 SUB-2:00:00 Marathon High Intensity/High Volume/High Altitude Training Planâ„¢ (with Renato Canova) in Flagstaff, Arizona.
5) We will all then wait around a long time for Nathan to run a sub-2:00:00 marathon.
At a certain point, every population runs into the Secretariat phenomenon. I.e. For any given population you can recreate the ideal genetic makeup for a certain task but you cannot exceed it. Genetic engineering, giving humans kangaroo tendons, or once in an epoch random mutations are obvious exceptions to this rule but the point stands for all practical purposes.
Matt Centrowitz, Jr is the offspring of a world class miler and a national class sprinter. His genetic makeup and nearly ideal training background have enabled him to become an Olympic champion. He might someday break the AR for the 1500 or mile. But he is is certainly not going to shatter the WR by six seconds, the equivalent of dropping the marathon record by three minutes.
Kip Keino and Jim Ryun's kids were to good to superb runners but they were not all-time. The same will most likely be true for Haile Gebresalassie and Keninesse Bekele, regardless of who they have kids with.