Nike sub 2 Hour Marathon attempt in 2017 & Nike ruins dream Bekele vs. Kipchoge London matchup

This is a Nike publicity stunt although I do think there are as yet undiscovered Kenyans and Ethiopians who may be able to run a sub 2 hour marathon.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

If you ask someone to break 2:00, that's like expecting someone to break the 1000 and 1200 world records enroute to running a 3:38 mile.

Not at all. The mile world record is much more advanced than the marathon world record. The men's marathon record has yet to be attacked by a 26:20 or faster guy. Everything on the track has been attacked pretty thoroughly (normal events at least).

Agree with you wrote:

This is a Nike publicity stunt although I do think there are as yet undiscovered Kenyans and Ethiopians who may be able to run a sub 2 hour marathon.

Bekele and Geb could have come close if they went for it when in prime 5000/10000 shape.

I think we're missing the point. The Kenyan athletes are in it for the money. Funny eh? I thought they just see it as a job. Now he has a 'better paying job offer' good for him.

Second runners are waaay to underfunded. No matter how stupid this becomes, I'd rather see Kipchoge make a decent payday than LJ make $1B on his f-ing shoe contract.

Would it count if they did laps around a 6 mile track?

mcmillanrunning.com says that a 2:00::00 marathon converts to 43.5 for 400m, so probably the best approach would be to take Wayde van Niekirk and train him up for a crack at the marathon.

ifif wrote:

Lenny Leonard wrote:

If you ask someone to break 2:00, that's like expecting someone to break the 1000 and 1200 world records enroute to running a 3:38 mile.

Not at all. The mile world record is much more advanced than the marathon world record. The men's marathon record has yet to be attacked by a 26:20 or faster guy. Everything on the track has been attacked pretty thoroughly (normal events at least).

Going back to my example:

If someone came through the 30k at the current 30k WR (1:26:47), he would need to run the next 12.2k in 33:12. That's 27:12 10k pace.

So you don't need a 26:20 guy, you need a guy who can run a WR for 30k, hold that pace for 2k more, then run a 26:50 10k.

Remembering how Shalene staggered around in the heat at the Oly Trials with Nike's vaunted medical and heat research supporting her, I don't give this a chance at all. Maybe Nike will come to their senses and they'll let up on the ego-tripping and the grip they have on the sport. Seems doubtful, however.

Odd ways that would help:

-Shave EVERYTHING

-Go shirtless

-Possibly ditch the shorts and run in bikini bottoms like women

-Run race in late afternoon so the temperature and solar radiation is still slow, and more importantly, the body is more awake and warm.

-Maybe even run in the dark with lit roads and screaming clouds. This intimacy will surely promote fast running.

These things may just bring a sub2 before 2018.

Cody Casserly wrote:

Odd ways that would help:

-Shave EVERYTHING

-Go shirtless

-Possibly ditch the shorts and run in bikini bottoms like women

-Run race in late afternoon so the temperature and solar radiation is still slow, and more importantly, the body is more awake and warm.

-Maybe even run in the dark with lit roads and screaming clouds. This intimacy will surely promote fast running.

These things may just bring a sub2 before 2018.

Actually, running in the afternoon alone could possibly bring the record down to the 2:00.XX range by next year at Berlin or London as long as the temperature is right.

Afternoon versus early morning has got to be worth 0.5 to 1% performance gain.

disgraceful_admin wrote:

Cody Casserly wrote:

Odd ways that would help:

-Shave EVERYTHING

-Go shirtless

-Possibly ditch the shorts and run in bikini bottoms like women

-Run race in late afternoon so the temperature and solar radiation is still slow, and more importantly, the body is more awake and warm.

-Maybe even run in the dark with lit roads and screaming clouds. This intimacy will surely promote fast running.

These things may just bring a sub2 before 2018.

Actually, running in the afternoon alone could possibly bring the record down to the 2:00.XX range by next year at Berlin or London as long as the temperature is right.

Afternoon versus early morning has got to be worth 0.5 to 1% performance gain.

If they can run the marathon in the afternoon at optimal temperatures and weather, then I'll say running 2:00.XX could happen next year on an existing course such as London or Berlin but it's going to be either Kipchoge or Bekele and it's very unlikely either could do it unless both are in the same race.

If the race has to be in the morning then I'll give it maybe 1/10000 chance they're running 2:00.XX in Berlin or London, and that's with both in the same race. No chance if they go at it alone.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

Going back to my example:

If someone came through the 30k at the current 30k WR (1:26:47), he would need to run the next 12.2k in 33:12. That's 27:12 10k pace.

So you don't need a 26:20 guy, you need a guy who can run a WR for 30k, hold that pace for 2k more, then run a 26:50 10k.

You keep missing the truth. The truth is that the 30k and marathon world records are nowhere near as strong as the track world records. If you would understand this, then you would understand that your example makes little sense.

For those of you that can't read the WSJ article as you don't subsribe, type in "germano nike" into google news and you should be able to bypass the paywall.One part of her struck me. Nike has admitted the whole thing is a joke:

Germano wrote:

The company says that while the run won’t be world record-eligible on a sanctioned course, the attempt will “show the potential to break it and enable future times to fall.”

So there you have it. It won't be on a WR. I mean I could do it already right now. All I need is a truck with a 40mph wind machine and I can get someone to do it before Nike.

ifif wrote:

You keep missing the truth. The truth is that the 30k and marathon world records are nowhere near as strong as the track world records. If you would understand this, then you would understand that your example makes little sense.

No. the issue is that I am basing my claim on solid, imperical data (I.e. Actual times that have been run in the past). You, on the other hand, are feeling like maybe the guys just weren't kinda trying hard enough perhaps (I.e. Wishy-washy gut feelings)

Am I saying that I don't think the marathon WR should drop a little to be more in line with track WRs? Not at all, I would not be shocked if it went to 2:02:00 in this generation. But if you start taking about 2:01:00 or faster, I will call you crazy.

To put this into perspective

1:59:59 marathon equates to the below. And I do NOT think these guys are capable of any of this.

100m

10.4

-

200m

20.8

-

400m

43.5

-

500m

56.8

-

600m

01:09.7

-

800m

01:35.5

-

1000m

02:05.6

-

1500m

03:16.8

-

1600m

03:31.5

-

1Mi

03:32.8

3:32

2000m

04:30.3

3:37

1.5Mi

05:32.5

3:41

3000m

07:00.6

3:45

3200m

07:29.3

3:46

2Mi

07:32.2

3:46

4000m

09:38.6

3:52

3Mi

11:48

3:56

5Km

12:19

3:58

6Km

14:54

4:00

4Mi

16:00

4:00

8Km

20:17

4:05

5Mi

20:25

4:05

10Km

25:34

4:07

12Km

31:05

4:10

15Km

39:37

4:15

10Mi

42:45

4:16

20Km

53:54

4:20

1/2 Mar

57:01

4:21

15Mi

1:05:58

4:24

25Km

1:08:29

4:25

30Km

1:23:18

4:28

20Mi

1:29:45

4:29

25Mi

1:53:37

4:33

Mar

1:59:59

4:35

50Km

2:25:33

4:41

Lenny Leonard wrote:

ifif wrote:

You keep missing the truth. The truth is that the 30k and marathon world records are nowhere near as strong as the track world records. If you would understand this, then you would understand that your example makes little sense.

No. the issue is that I am basing my claim on solid, imperical data (I.e. Actual times that have been run in the past). You, on the other hand, are feeling like maybe the guys just weren't kinda trying hard enough perhaps (I.e. Wishy-washy gut feelings)

Am I saying that I don't think the marathon WR should drop a little to be more in line with track WRs? Not at all, I would not be shocked if it went to 2:02:00 in this generation. But if you start taking about 2:01:00 or faster, I will call you crazy.

Hey Lenny baby. Did you say imperical data? That sounds fancy.

We have empirical data from your post that you are an idiot.

Your brain is the size of an uncooked grain of basmati rice.

Eleven wrote:

Middling in Distance wrote:

So it seems all they need is a point to point downhill course?

Could do it tomorrow surely?!

Just drop a guy from 26.2 miles high.

What about running 26.2 miles down Mount Everest?

didn't realize how tiny these runners are.

Look at how much the weigh.

​Eliud Kipchoge

Height: 5’6”

Weight: 115 pounds

Zersenay Tadese

Height: 5’3”

Weight: 119 pounds

Lelisa Desisa

Height: 5’9”

Weight: 125 pounds

Geb ran a 2:06 as his opening marathon, then ran sub-27 with a sub13 in there in 2003. I don't think he has much more than a 2:02:30 in his legs at best.

Nike's marketing team is on full hype sh*t right now. They know that sub-2 gets press, no matter what. Too many people (who don't know how fast that is) take that barrier seriously, it offers some great media hits. Even more stupid, people compare it to sub-4, a time that three high school kids hit last year alone. Good job guys!

Truth is, adidas athletes broke the marathon record 5 times in a row. Nike can hype an amazing match between Bekele and Kipchoge with WR possibilities, but instead is opt'ing for zero-chance performance. Essentially, they care more about their the "sub2"buzz of media hits than a mega matchup.