10:10 on a 3 K cross-country course is not consistent with 38:39 10 K and 1:21:21 half. Bolder Boulder is a slow course, but not that slow. I have had several friends (31-34 minute range) run "normal" times there, a bit slower that what they would have on a flat course at the same elevation - maybe 30 seconds or so slower. So with that in mind, she is holding the pace very well from 10 K to the half. But 10:10 on a correctly measured cross-country course at 7000 feet would indicate a very sharp drop in endurance from 3 K to 10 K, which just does not happen for a runner that holds it so well from 10 K to the half.
I do have some good data for that - here in Provo we have a series of cross-country meets where both kids and parents can participate. So I ran a good number of 3 Ks. The course is at about 4500 feet, has some hills that are mild by cross-country standards. On that course I was able to run 10:30 on faster days and 10:45 on slower days. Around the same time I ran a certified Bolder-Boulder like course (maybe even nastier) - Layton Classic - in 36:58. I also was able to hit 35:20 10 K en route to a 1:16:22 half (Monumental in Indianapolis, low elevation, loop course, mostly flat).
Grace Ping ran 14:12 on the 4 K course in the same park along mostly the same route. On that same day I ran 18:29 in the adult section in the 5 K again on mostly the same route. So maybe I would have run around 14:35 in the 4 K. Then Grace ran 16:36 in the 5 K in California on Thanksgiving for another data point. So I would anticipate her to run around 36:00 in Bolder Boulder.
Move over Grace Ping
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Any care to name any 12yr / 13yr phenoms that have had substantial success when they were older?
Mary Decker, Francie Laureau -
Here's another one...Yamilet Lopez is an 8 year old who set the 800M World Record at USATF Jr Olympics 2016 (2:38) and then the following day set the 1500M national record (5:16:29)... I am not making any big predictions about her future...but I really enjoyed watching her kick at the end of these races.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjYxzlJomaE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElkEbDKdhHM -
Bro - Mama wrote:
Any care to name any 12yr / 13yr phenoms that have had substantial success when they were older?
Mary Decker, Francie Laureau
Great you named 2 now how many thousands abandoned the sport due to injuries and hate their parents for nagging and pushing them and forcing them to lose out on their happy childhood years!!
Tennis and gymnastics are two sports riddled with tens of thousands of girls who were labeled to be the next great ones only to be non bodies.
The question is....AT WHAT COST DO YOU WANT SUCCESS FOR YOUR CHILDREN??
Read the "Gold Mine Effect" and maybe your opinion will change. -
Sasha Pachev wrote:
10:10 on a 3 K cross-country course is not consistent with 38:39 10 K and 1:21:21 half. Bolder Boulder is a slow course, but not that slow. I have had several friends (31-34 minute range) run "normal" times there, a bit slower that what they would have on a flat course at the same elevation - maybe 30 seconds or so slower. So with that in mind, she is holding the pace very well from 10 K to the half. But 10:10 on a correctly measured cross-country course at 7000 feet would indicate a very sharp drop in endurance from 3 K to 10 K, which just does not happen for a runner that holds it so well from 10 K to the half.
I do have some good data for that - here in Provo we have a series of cross-country meets where both kids and parents can participate. So I ran a good number of 3 Ks. The course is at about 4500 feet, has some hills that are mild by cross-country standards. On that course I was able to run 10:30 on faster days and 10:45 on slower days. Around the same time I ran a certified Bolder-Boulder like course (maybe even nastier) - Layton Classic - in 36:58. I also was able to hit 35:20 10 K en route to a 1:16:22 half (Monumental in Indianapolis, low elevation, loop course, mostly flat).
Grace Ping ran 14:12 on the 4 K course in the same park along mostly the same route. On that same day I ran 18:29 in the adult section in the 5 K again on mostly the same route. So maybe I would have run around 14:35 in the 4 K. Then Grace ran 16:36 in the 5 K in California on Thanksgiving for another data point. So I would anticipate her to run around 36:00 in Bolder Boulder.
Pretty good analysis. Hard to evaluate middle school 3 and 4K XC times though. A lot of variability with that, so wouldn't read much into the 10:10
Yup it's been said already in this thread that Bolder Boulder is about 30 seconds slower than flatter 10K at similar elevations.
I also agree with your assessment of about 36, for Ping assuming pretty good transference from 5K to 10K. As a masters I ran 16:20 5K and 35:20 at Bolder Boulder one year; and 16:22/36:50 (super hot day) the next.
Nevertheless, the 1:21 by the girl from Wyoming is very good, and better than her 38:30 at Boulder. These kids are killing it. -
16:20* 5K and 35:20
*at sea level and BB, respectively -
SOS wrote:
It's been shown many times that the best adult women distance runners didn't even run competitively in their early teens and as a result their bodies reached sexual maturity (yes this is very important in bone and muscular development) before their bodies were subjected to the rigors of distance running.
put up wrote:
Link to any examples?
Mary Decker
Regina Jacobs
Francie Larrieu
Jordan Hassay -
Actually these shoes are the best just like that last comment. Back up your claim or don't say it!
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Not moving over wrote:
Why would the single-age world record holder move over? Ping holds WRs for 5k at ages 10, 11, 12 and 13.
"Single-age world records" aren't very meaningful. They aren't actually certified, and who can name any of them anyway, other than the record holder, their family, and close friends. Angela Copson has 31 "single-age world records". Great accomplishments for her age, but how many people have even heard of her?
Grace Ping's been beaten the last three years at USATF Junior Olympics XC in her age group. She's certainly is and has been a great runner for her age, but she's not unique, and she has a lot of changes to go through before we'll know if her current success will translate to continued progress and success as she gets older. -
SOS wrote:
Bro - Mama wrote:
Any care to name any 12yr / 13yr phenoms that have had substantial success when they were older?
Mary Decker, Francie Laureau
Great you named 2 now how many thousands abandoned the sport due to injuries and hate their parents for nagging and pushing them and forcing them to lose out on their happy childhood years!!
Tennis and gymnastics are two sports riddled with tens of thousands of girls who were labeled to be the next great ones only to be non bodies.
The question is....AT WHAT COST DO YOU WANT SUCCESS FOR YOUR CHILDREN??
Read the "Gold Mine Effect" and maybe your opinion will change.
That was my point. -
Grace Ping the Chaser wrote:
I am so jealous of this little 90 pound girl. I just want to scream to much!! Aaaaarrrrrrgggghhhhh!!!!
Take your meds, dude. -
There is no evidence that holding back kids at a young age will give them a better chance to be fast as adults. In fact, it is more likely to make them bored and frustrated and move to other activities before they even reach maturity.
Let kids run. Let kids compete. Don't push them. Don't hold them back. -
Here are some wrote:
SOS wrote:
It's been shown many times that the best adult women distance runners didn't even run competitively in their early teens and as a result their bodies reached sexual maturity (yes this is very important in bone and muscular development) before their bodies were subjected to the rigors of distance running.
put up wrote:
Link to any examples?
Mary Decker
Regina Jacobs
Francie Larrieu
Jordan Hassay
Mary is NOT an example of SOS's theory. She was the ultimate phenom at 14 (senior indoor international). she is about the only example I can think of
who carried it through and stayed at the very (gold medal)top, albeit with lots o' injuries and 'help'.
We will never know if Jordan is an example as she pushed it prior to maturity. -
Personally I do not think there is any benefit to holding back a young kid if she wants to run. Just don't force big training on them if they do not want to do it.
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qoweiury wrote:
We will never know if Jordan is an example as she pushed it prior to maturity.
So, qualifying for the Olympic Trials is not good enough for you.
1/10 -
Olympic Trials wrote:
qoweiury wrote:
We will never know if Jordan is an example as she pushed it prior to maturity.
So, qualifying for the Olympic Trials is not good enough for you.
1/10
dude, this ain't no sitcom. This IS Letsrun.com
OTQ is barely above hobby jogger. Top 10 at WCs OGs or go home! -
Coyote Montane wrote:
dude, this ain't no sitcom. This IS Letsrun.com
0/10 -
Olympic Trials wrote:
qoweiury wrote:
We will never know if Jordan is an example as she pushed it prior to maturity.
So, qualifying for the Olympic Trials is not good enough for you.
1/10
You completely missed the point, which was not that JH was not good (she is maybe sub elite) but that we cannot know how much better she would be if she had waited a bit to train hard. -
Jhgfff wrote:
You completely missed the point, which was not that JH was not good (she is maybe sub elite) .
What the FuKK is wrong with you? Sub elite? She just won the United States 10 mile road championship. She just finished 3rd in a stacked Turkey Trot. She has run 31:38 10k on the track and 31:39 on the roads. -
Bro - Mama wrote:
Any care to name any 12yr / 13yr phenoms that have had substantial success when they were older?
Mary Decker, Francie Laureau
Ajee Wilson and Reavyn Rogers have/are doing fairly well. And the Francis sisters had pretty solid college careers. They were all child stars I believe.
