Kate Murphy at NXN

cdawgxc wrote:

Does anyone know what was up with Kate Murphy at NXN? She comes into the meet as a co-favorite, and having the best track credentials, she should've been very competitive, but she was a good bit back of the leaders.

Does anyone know what happened? I didn't watch the race, and I haven't seen her name come up in any articles nor threads.

Obviously I have no way of knowing, but she seems like a type-A distance runner. Unless she was sick, I would not be surprised if she pushed too hard in training leading up to NXN. With that said, the girl who won is a legit long distance runner and Kate was probably not going to win anyway.

The course was very soggy and slippery, could easily explain a speed oriented runner underperforming. Add in an eight hour flight. Perhaps something else was going on but she just didn't look real good at any point. Maybe the stress of college decision, visits also.

Kate made her college commitment a few weeks ago.

I would say going in she had nothing to lose. She is already going to her #1 school, I wam iOS assume on close to a full ride. She will be chasing some all-time records in the spring.

3-months of cross country after her outdoor season pushed her base training start back is a lot.

Would have liked to see her be top-3, but I don't think her long term stock drops much, if at all, based on this race.

Milers hate mud! Annie Hill, who won Brooks PR mile last spring, got 41st.

Milers hate the f###ing mud.

Murphy will avenge this spring.

nxnerr wrote:

The course was very soggy and slippery, could easily explain a speed oriented runner underperforming. Add in an eight hour flight. Perhaps something else was going on but she just didn't look real good at any point. Maybe the stress of college decision, visits also.

That would be fine but last year she took the same 8 hour flight and ran the same course which was in worse shape and ran 1 min faster to place 16th overall so I would think something else had to be up

I don't think the course was nearly as muddy last year. This was like running on pudding. My point with the flight was just that there could be a bunch of other things that affected her. But I think the mud was primary issue.

nxnerr wrote:

The course was very soggy and slippery, could easily explain a speed oriented runner underperforming. Add in an eight hour flight. Perhaps something else was going on but she just didn't look real good at any point. Maybe the stress of college decision, visits also.

Yeah, because VA to OR is 8 hours.

Didn't no she was flying out to Alaska for this meet.

While Kate is an amazing runner, she really wasn't tested much this year. She ran against Rachel Macarthur (41st at FL South), Heather Holt (2nd at FL South), Maria Coffin (3rd at FL NE). She beat Coffin by 14 seconds, Holt by 10 seconds, and Macarthur by 38. None of them pressed her for very long.

Her great american time was slower than Libby Davidson's last year, and slower then she herself ran the year before.

I happen to think that US #3 was perfectly warranted.....I just don't think there is the depth in girls' XC that there was last year. She definitely has the track credentials and will shine much more there..She may possibly finish her HS career as the best HS Miler ever.

That being said, word is she fell during the race. either way, clearly she had an off day.

cdawgxc wrote:

Does anyone know what was up with Kate Murphy at NXN? She comes into the meet as a co-favorite, and having the best track credentials, she should've been very competitive, but she was a good bit back of the leaders.

Does anyone know what happened? I didn't watch the race, and I haven't seen her name come up in any articles nor threads.

I never viewed her as anything close to a co-favorite. She's not nearly as good at xc as track. Yes, our preview talked about her potentially beating Oakley but that was only because on the 2% chance that someone beat her we figured it would be someone with a 4:07 pb.

Now, to run 18:27 and finish 33rd? That's not good.

I honestly just see Kate Murphy as a TRUE miler

I mean, even last year when she had a better XC season, I still thought she performaned heavily under her track creds

How does someone who runs a 4:07 1500m only run 9:17 for 3k? She probably chose the 3k for security because only 2 go to World JR's and Efraimson and Aragon were stiff competition, but a 4:07 girl with a slick of endurance should at least threaten 9:00 in the 3k. So if she has a huge drop off from 1 mile to 2, then she'll have just as much of a drop off to 5k, and she does. Even her 9:17 3k is better than her 17:00. There's girls with much slower than a 4:27 mile equivalent running 15:05-16:00 (on a track, add 20 seconds or so). She's just clearly not an XC girl.

Also, she had a very very late track season, and if she overtrained, probably never fully recovered, definitely a factor.

What Rojo said.... She is a true 800-1500 runner who drops off quickly at distances above that. (at least at this point in her fitness) Because she is so great at track, people were promoting her as a favorite when she never was based on her XC history. Christina Aragon was similar to KM in her HS career and quickly transitioned into a great XC runner in college. I am sure KM can do the same if she wants to. I just want to see her focus on 800-1500 and win double gold for the USA in 2020.

Annie Hill on the other hand has run great at national XC meets previousy. i found her finish much more shocking and dismal than Kate's.

"Murphy crushes Cain’s 3000m meet recordKate Murphy (Burke, Virginia), booked her trip to the World Junior Championships in the women’s 3000m by setting a new meet record of 9:10.51, a record that was previously held by Mary Cain. The showdown between Murphy and Katie Rainsberger (Air Academy, Colorado) came down to the wire, with Murphy finishing among the fastest junior women of all time in yet another event. Murphy’s feat was marked as the second-fastest junior outdoor 3000m of all time, and Rainsberger’s time goes down as the third-fastest in 9:11.60."Rainsberger went on to run 9:00 and did OK at NCAAs. Considering Murphy is more of a 800-1500 type, she didn't do that bad at NXN. I agreee Hill was way more surprising, although she is a miler too.

Correct! The south east is the weakest for women (true distance runners 5,000/10,000 college) in both NXN and Footlocker. Look at the results! She crushes XC even as a 1500 runner.

I know that one NXN runner from Northern Virginia, where Kate Murphy is from, had a 16-hour journey, from wake-up the morning of the travel to arriving at the destination in Oregon. Yeah, some kids have done very well despite this different kind of endurance time trialing, but I would guess that the longer the travel (start at home to finish line at the Portland [NXN] or San Diego [FL] hotel), the greater the odds of running "below par" in the big race.

Of course, travel is just one factor. That is, one potential factor. And, like I said, some kids do great despite the distances traveled. Take Drew Hunter and Weini Kelati a year ago at Foot Locker. Both champs, both from far away.

Annie Hill, it has been reported, has been plagued by some injuries or illness this year. Not sure how this affected her last Saturday, but I don't think anyone has mentioned the possibility of injury/illness. The reality is that even the best athletes, if at all under the weather, can be off of their games. Take D.J. Principe as an example. He will bounce back, even if letsrun.com opinions have shifted.

And then there's Drew Hunter, who twice obliterated indoor mile records despite sickness last winter! But, then, he's one of the all-time greats.

Someone reported that maybe Kate Murphy fell. Does she look mud-smeared in any race video. (I haven't looked.)

Easy explanation - her creepy massage therapist was unable to make the trip.

Yeah, I suppose track talents only go so far.I didn't really think she'd win, but I assumed she would be a factor until late in the race.

There have been some excellent points about her diminishing prospects as the distance increases. Probably won't bode well for those relying on her for NCAAXC next year- but that's a long way off.