Penn St will make the college football playoff

This season there is really no need for the playoff. It would have been fine the way they did things before the BCS. Give Bama the national title after their undefeated regular season, then controversy ensues when tOSU upsets them in the Sugar Bowl.

This is why college football is really dumb. The sport can be really fluky in that one missed field goal or one trick play can really mess with the dynamic of the game and it is only 1 game. In baseball, the deeper team wins. In basketball the deeper team wins. In cross country the deeper teams win. Very very very rarely are their "upsets" at the NCAA meet. There are certainly surprises but never would the #8 team beat the #2 ranked team. This is what happened when Penn State beat Ohio State (the gap was a lot bigger at time between 2 and 8).

Now having watched college sports in my adulthood, in college football it is ridiculously hard to analyze or rank these teams effectively.

First off the whole idea of a conference or division (which is a good one) is so completely backward now you can't compare them and teams have no incentive to to play anyone good. The big 10 has a million teams now and half of them are awful (Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Illinois, Indiana). There are other conferences with fewer schools. Why not just make all the conferences the same size? Then force the teams to play 2 out of conference games against power 5 teams of the same ranking. If the conferences all had the same # of teams you could have the #1 team play two other #1 teams from other conferences from the year before at the start of the year. Imagine if Alabama got to play Michigan State last year and Clemson last year in the first two weeks! Imagine if Stanford played Oklahoma and Michigan State of Clemson! Those would be GREAT games and we would actually have a way better measuring stick.

Second off, also really hard to compare teams based off who will get drafted considering how few players will end up getting drafted. For years people said LSU was a really really good team because they have so many players drafted. They kept losing games though because they aren't that great.

I concur wrote:

Finally, some wisdom. The Big Ten can't get OSU and Mich both in with neither of them playing the conference championship. As good as Michigan is, they just lost two of their last three and OSU beat them. Oklahoma is the sleeper pick if they beat #10 Okla St this wknd and Clemson or UW lose, and they are playing as well as anyone besides maybe USC and Bama.

Gentlemen, the conference championships don't matter. That's going to be proven this weekend when Ohio State makes it in. These bowl games are played for money. That's it. You think ESPN is going to sit idly by while Ohio St is left out for Washington/Colorado, Clemson and Wisconsin?

If 2014 taught us anything, those three should pass Ohio St this weekend should they all win. (Don't hold your breath if you're a fan of those teams.)

Ohio St jumped TCU in 2014 because TCU wasn't conference champion. They also jumped FSU that year, who was a conference champion with a better record. The only thing in common between these two years is Ohio St. How Penn St (especially) could be left out for Ohio St is simply laughable if you carry forward previous logic. Ohio St lost at home to a garbage team in 2014 as well, so there's no arguing for Ohio State this year either due to 'quality of loss'.

Colorado will probably beat Washington, opening the door for Penn State or Wisconsin.

gold counter wrote:

I'm glad we have a 4 team playoff. Can you imagine this season with the old BCS? There would be 4-5 teams with the credentials to get destroyed by Alabama.

There should be a rule that if you don't win your conference then you can't be in the playoff.

Alabama is good this year - no doubt. However, the SEC is the worst it's been in over a decade. By seasons end, Alabama will be the only team in the SEC with LESS THAN 4 LOSSES!!!! They have wins over 8-4 Auburn, 8-4 Texas A&M and 9-3 USC (who was garbage at the beginning of the year). Not very impressive.

Also, I'd laugh if Florida beats Alabama... I bet you would retract that rule proposition of yours.

Yes they do - they just aren't the lone deciding factor.

Nothing says perfect historical trends like two years of data!

And because Ohio State was 12-1, dominated their conference championship game 59-0 and was considered better by the 'eye test' - which was the correct choice as they went on to win the playoff.

FSU was jumped because their SOS was GARBAGE.

Context is key, my friend. Penn State played a soft schedule and lost two games. That's where the issue lies. OSU schedule is tops in the nation, they rank top 6 offensively and defensively and they just beat the #3 team in the nation after already being #2.

Time for an 8-team playoff

Assuming Bama, Wisco, Clemson, Wash, OU win this week:

1 Alabama 13-0 (automatic bid as SEC champ)

2 Clemson 12-1 (auto bid ACC champ)

3 Ohio St 11-1 (at large bid)

4 Wisconsin 11-2 (auto B1G champ)

5 Washington 12-1 (auto PAC12 champ)

6 Michigan 10-2 (at-large)

7 OU 10-2 (auto Big-12 champ)

8 Western Mich (auto "group of 5" champ)

First 4 out:

USC 9-3

Penn St 10-3

Colorado 10-3

Florida St 9-3

-None of these teams could make an argument for inclusion

i chose D2 wrote:

Time for an 8-team playoff

Assuming Bama, Wisco, Clemson, Wash, OU win this week:

1 Alabama 13-0 (automatic bid as SEC champ)

2 Clemson 12-1 (auto bid ACC champ)

3 Ohio St 11-1 (at large bid)

4 Wisconsin 11-2 (auto B1G champ)

5 Washington 12-1 (auto PAC12 champ)

6 Michigan 10-2 (at-large)

7 OU 10-2 (auto Big-12 champ)

8 Western Mich (auto "group of 5" champ)

First 4 out:

USC 9-3

Penn St 10-3

Colorado 10-3

Florida St 9-3

-None of these teams could make an argument for inclusion

Yep. Once one big conference has had its champ left out a few years in a row (looking at you Big 12) we'll see calls for the 5+3 format.

macdaddy wrote:

Yes they do - they just aren't the lone deciding factor.

Nothing says perfect historical trends like two years of data!

And because Ohio State was 12-1, dominated their conference championship game 59-0 and was considered better by the 'eye test' - which was the correct choice as they went on to win the playoff.

FSU was jumped because their SOS was GARBAGE.

Context is key, my friend. Penn State played a soft schedule and lost two games. That's where the issue lies. OSU schedule is tops in the nation, they rank top 6 offensively and defensively and they just beat the #3 team in the nation after already being #2.

I'm not stating Ohio St isn't the best team. They very well might be, but it's dang near impossible to say IMO as there is so little non-conference overlap. Many of us would like to see an 8 or 16 team playoff including all major conference champions and worthy at large teams actually play to find out who is the best team. Ohio St never played TCU in 2014, so it's unclear to me how anyone would know who would've won that game.

What I am saying is that the process used to select the teams is intentionally subjective so that the most profitable teams can be put in the playoff if at all possible. It is inherently and intentionally unfair to smaller teams that generate less profit IMO. If Alabama, Texas, Florida State, USC and Indiana all end up undefeated after regular season play in 2017, which team do you think will be left out?

Here are some 2014 rankings:

Team A: SOS (prior to bowl season)-10, Off PPG Ranking-2, Def PPG Ranking-8, Highest Rated Team Defeated-#4

Team B: Same rankings-26, 5, 26, 7

Team A was TCU and Team B was Ohio State. I can't speak to who was better in the eye test that year as both teams were awesome as far as I recall (with TCU winning by larger margins on average). On every other objective stat you're using to vouch for Ohio St this year, Ohio St was worse than the team they bumped out in 2014. Sure it's only one data point, but can you explain why the context you cite this year was deemed irrelevant in 2014 when it didn't favor Ohio State? Wouldn't it be more fair to tell the teams ahead of time what the standards for selection will be?

I attended the Alabama vs Texas A&M game. First, never seen tailgating like that. A game in Tuscaloosa should be on everyone's bucket list. Hit Talladega if you can too.

Alabama - who I do think is the best team - hasn't played as strong a schedule as you may think without looking. Reminds me a little of the Troy Smith OSU team that got beaten pretty good by urban Meyer's Gators.

We'll see what happens. Let's say the better team wins 7 or 8 out of 10 times. That still leaves a good bit to chance.

And yes, the Buckeyes got favorable officiating on Saturday. Goes back to that 7 or 8 out of 10 thing.

Ohio state jumped TCU and FSU in 2014 because they routes Wisconsin 59-0 in the B1G championship game.

You literally couldn't argue that they werent a top 4 team after that, anyone with half a brain knew it. They even beam alabama and won the whole thing that year. End of story.

That is wisco/PSU's only shot of getting in over Clemson, Washington, or even Michigan (who has beat both of them). A blowout win in the B1G championship.

It will be really interesting to see what happens if Penn State wins. If they take OSU over Penn State then the conference title means nothing. Penn State not only would be the conference champ, but the division champ. OSU would have nothing.

They need to shorten the regular season, and go to a traditional playoff format. If they went to 8 teams now, and kept everything the same they would play until Feb.

[quote]pft fan wrote:

This is why college football is really dumb. The sport can be really fluky in that one missed field goal or one trick play can really mess with the dynamic of the game and it is only 1 game. In baseball, the deeper team wins. In basketball the deeper team wins. In cross country the deeper teams win. Very very very rarely are their "upsets" at the NCAA meet. There are certainly surprises but never would the #8 team beat the #2 ranked team. This is what happened when Penn State beat Ohio State (the gap was a lot bigger at time between 2 and 8).

quote]

LOL did you see the NCAA XC results? Oregon women won, going in ranked like 11th. Cheserek was dethroned as a huge favorite. Upsets happen everywhere. Favorites still win more times than not. Yes football games are close sometimes. But in close games the better team usually prevails. It's not a fluke. More upsets signify a more competitive and less watered down sport.

whoknows wrote:

It will be really interesting to see what happens if Penn State wins. If they take OSU over Penn State then the conference title means nothing. Penn State not only would be the conference champ, but the division champ. OSU would have nothing.

They need to shorten the regular season, and go to a traditional playoff format. If they went to 8 teams now, and kept everything the same they would play until Feb.

While I personally like the concept of an eight team play-off, the smaller the field the fewer teams that can claim stake to a spot. More spots and more teams start believing they should be included, then the transitive property really gets stretched. Four teams might be for the best.

whoknows wrote:

It will be really interesting to see what happens if Penn State wins. If they take OSU over Penn State then the conference title means nothing. Penn State not only would be the conference champ, but the division champ. OSU would have nothing.

They need to shorten the regular season, and go to a traditional playoff format. If they went to 8 teams now, and kept everything the same they would play until Feb.

Conference title meant nothing when the committee chose OSU over TCU by virtue of the fact that TCU's conference doesn't play a championship because many teams left. But they won the de facto conference championship that year by crushing a decent Texas squad on Thanksgiving week.

PSU and Wisco both lost to Michigan, so how do they leapfrog the Wolverines, even though Michigan's loss to Iowa was not a good loss? OSU is a lock because of name brand & strength of schedule. If Clemson, UW, & Bama all win this weekend, it's a moot point, because I don't see how a two-loss team takes the place of any one loss or undefeated team.

If Clemson or UW lose, the fairest thing to do would be to take OU, assuming they beat #10 Okla St. I thought I saw the pundits last week saying OU or USC were their first teams out, so they must not think the Big Ten is as strong as purported or they don't care how teams played in Sept so much as they care how they are playing now.

I agree w/your last paragraph. Shorten the season, go with an eight team playoff. It's the fairest thing to do. Anyway, it's Alabama's title to lose this year.

i chose D2 wrote:

Time for an 8-team playoff

Assuming Bama, Wisco, Clemson, Wash, OU win this week:

1 Alabama 13-0 (automatic bid as SEC champ)

2 Clemson 12-1 (auto bid ACC champ)

3 Ohio St 11-1 (at large bid)

4 Wisconsin 11-2 (auto B1G champ)

5 Washington 12-1 (auto PAC12 champ)

6 Michigan 10-2 (at-large)

7 OU 10-2 (auto Big-12 champ)

8 Western Mich (auto "group of 5" champ)

First 4 out:

USC 9-3

Penn St 10-3

Colorado 10-3

Florida St 9-3

-None of these teams could make an argument for inclusion

Yep. Once one big conference has had its champ left out a few years in a row (looking at you Big 12) we'll see calls for the 5+3 format.

Penn State is as done as Joepa after his shower sessions. They will never leapfrog Michigan. Michigan destroyed Penn State and the committee is on to that.

Not a pedo wrote:

Penn State is as done as Joepa after his shower sessions. They will never leapfrog Michigan. Michigan destroyed Penn State and the committee is on to that.

Joe never took showers