I think Michigan is just as deserving as OSU. There loss in OT on the road shows they are a better team on a neutral/home field then OSU.
I don't think OSU or Michigan deserve in if they can't win BIG 10 conference.
I think Michigan is just as deserving as OSU. There loss in OT on the road shows they are a better team on a neutral/home field then OSU.
I don't think OSU or Michigan deserve in if they can't win BIG 10 conference.
DRAKEback2back wrote:
... So this shows that conference titles are valued and nothing is certain going into the final week. And yes, a team like Colorado may even have a shot if they win big in the Pac12 title game this week. You never know.
$$$ is all that matters as long as the rankings aren't too egregious to make fans stop watching. If conference titles mattered, the 2014 scenario would've already eliminated Ohio State this year. If a one loss team gets jumped it will be Washington by a big 10 team.
IT Guy wrote:
I don't know much about Clemson's schedule.
It is piss poor. They squeaked out wins over crappy Auburn, Lousville, Flordia state, NC ST and lost to Pitt. Those are bunch of 3+ loss teams that are mostly ranked high because we though beating FL ST or Lousville was an accomplishment and preseason hype.
It isn't their fault that teams like Auburn and FL ST aren't good this year the same way it isn't WA fault that Oregon and Stanford suck this year.
Reality is we end up with sample size issues as there aren't enough games between top teams to have a clue who is good or not. If anyone in the top 25 played 11 games against top 25, I doubt any of them would go undefeated.
1. Alabama
2. Ohio state
Are in. #2 will not drop out of the top four after beating #3. They can't be punished for not playing next week- not really their fault how crazy the B1G standings worked out.
In true irony, OSU is lucky it lost to PSU. Had they won, they would still have to beat a good Wisco team in the B1G championship to guarantee a playoff spot.
3. Clemson
4. Washington
Are in if they don't lose.
Michigan, wisco, and PSU are all 10-2. And Michigan beat BOTH WISCO & PSU head to head. Unless one of wisco/PSU kills the other by 30+ next week, Michigan will stay at 5. They are #5 in the AP poll for a reason.
The big ten's only shot at getting 2 teams into the playoff is if either Clemson/Washington loses. And the second team would probably be Michigan.
They definitely passed the "eye test" last weekend @ The Shoe. That game last Saturday between 1-loss teams was the true B1G championship.
The college football review shows I've been watching are not favoring Washington to be guaranteed a spot even with a win. If Wisco wins, the shows were favoring them to make it over Washington. Besides Washington's weak conference, not their fault, their soft OOC play should hurt them. As far as OSU dropping out, forget about it. All this conference champ stuff being a factor is between "like" teams, and OSU is not considered to be "like" Rape St or Wisco. Although, being an OSU fan, I can't help but think noise caused by dropping OSU would be music to the committees ears. It'll be a nervous weekend for certain.
Why the big fuss over who gets to get crushed by Bama?
I think Penn State will get in over Ohio State if they win the conference championship game. Head to head win and conference champion will trump the extra loss and inferior schedule.
I think Ohio State would get in over Wisconsin.
The Big Ten is really strong this year. Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan could all lay a claim on a spot in the top four. Probably only one will get in, and it will probably be Ohio State, with only one loss. Washington really doesn't belong, imho, I think the winner of the Penn State/Wisconsin game should get in as well.
I'm not convinced Ohio State is that much better than the other three -- it took them overtime to beat Wisconsin, who was actually ahead most of the game. They needed 2xOT to beat Michigan, and they barely lost to Penn State (albeit on a freak play).
Wisconsin's two losses are to highly ranked teams. They also beat three teams that were in the top-10 when they played them (LSU, Michigan State, Nebraska). Granted those three teams don't look so good now.
Michigan really blew it losing to Iowa. I don't follow Penn State but agree that their loss to Pitt makes them very suspect, plus, they played a weaker schedule than the other three.
It's possible that in a neutral site, any of those teams could beat the other.
Why play in the past wrote:
The college football review shows I've been watching are not favoring Washington to be guaranteed a spot even with a win. If Wisco wins, the shows were favoring them to make it over Washington. Besides Washington's weak conference, not their fault, their soft OOC play should hurt them. As far as OSU dropping out, forget about it. All this conference champ stuff being a factor is between "like" teams, and OSU is not considered to be "like" Rape St or Wisco. Although, being an OSU fan, I can't help but think noise caused by dropping OSU would be music to the committees ears. It'll be a nervous weekend for certain.
Two things I'd disagree with: P12 doesn't have the marquee wins that B1G has, but as a whole the conference stacks up just fine; Wisconsin is somewhat a "like" team in comparison with Ohio State.
I'll tackle the Wisconsin-Ohio State one first: both played strong OOC schedules (Wisco played LSU, Ohio State played Oklahoma, and both won), and more importantly the Ohio State-Wisconsin game came down to a TD, and the Michigan games for both teams was also within a TD. Ohio State is only slightly better in my eyes because of the 7 point OT win over Wisconsin and they were more dominant against the weakest opponents on their schedule.
P12 has 6 teams that are 8-4 or better, plus two others at 5-7, all with a 9-game schedule. Of the six that went 8-4 or better, five combined to go 14-2 with the only losses to Alabama (USC) and Michigan (Colorado). The other team, Washington State, went 1-2 in OOC with losses to 10-2 Boise State and FCS #3 Eastern Washington - both losses being by a FG. Not a good OOC record by them, but at least they were both close losses to solid teams (yes, EWU is solid: they lost in OT to FCS #1 North Dakota State, which is better than B1G power Iowa can say, and Iowa went 6-3 in the B1G and was only 8 points away from winning the B1G West). The only problem with the top teams in the P12 was they didn't win any marquee games against eventual 10+ win teams, but that's not completely their fault: Kansas State is a quality program that has won 10+ games recently, and Stanford beat them handily (KSU is currently #4 in the B12 and 7-4 overall with a game against B12 #5 TCU remaining); Stanford and USC both beat a Notre Dame team that was supposed to be pretty good; Utah beat BYU, which at 8-4 is unfortunately the highlight win unless Kansas State stays to form and beats TCU this week.
Continuing the trend set by Washington State's OOC schedule, a lot of the lower tier teams played very competitively with mid-tier teams from other conferences: Oregon went 2-1 in OOC with a loss to Nebraska (6-3 B1G, 9-3 overall) by a FG; Oregon State went 1-2 OOC but their losses were to Minnesota (5-4 B1G, 8-4) by a TD and Boise State by 14; California beat Texas (3-6 B12, 5-7) by a TD and lost to SDSU (MWC West Champion at 9-3) by 5; Arizona State went 3-0 OOC including a 13 point win over Texas Tech (3-6 B12, 5-7); UCLA went 2-1 with a win over BYU and a loss to Texas A&M (4-4 SEC West; 8-4) by a TD. The only team that struggled OOC was also the team that struggled in conference, but even they went 2-1 OOC with a 2-point loss to (8-4) BYU.
P12 seemed to show this year that their lower and mid-tier teams are on par with the mid-tier teams from the other P5 conferences, and the top teams in the P12 showed they were far ahead of the rest of the conference. The only problem is that USC imploded against Alabama and Colorado didn't upset Michigan (losing by 17 before everyone realized Colorado was a good team), and the rest of the teams on the schedule that were supposed to be good turned out to be 3- or 4-loss teams instead of 2-loss teams as hoped.
Then again, the same thing or worse can be said for the ACC (Florida State was the only one to score a decent OOC win, over soon-to-be 8-4 Florida) and B12 (marquee wins either being Oklahoma State over 8-4 Pittsburgh or West Virginia over 8-4 BYU), and their mid- and lower-tier teams weren't as competitive OOC as the P12 schools were. In fact, even the vaunted SEC didn't do much better, with only two wins over 3- or 4- loss teams (Alabama over 9-3 USC and Tennessee over 9-3 Virginia Tech, and VT is probably going to be at 4 losses after they play Clemson this weekend). The ONLY thing saving SEC from being on the same level as P12, judging by the OOC games, was Alabama stomping USC.
The only conference with any OOC bragging rights is the B1G, and that is really limited to two teams: Ohio State beat Oklahoma and Michigan beat Colorado. Penn State didn't beat anyone, Wisconsin beat a 4-loss LSU squad, Nebraska beat no one and barely survived 4-8 Oregon while Iowa lost to (FCS #1) North Dakota State. And the B1G lower tier was worse than any other conference by a long shot.
That's why the committee almost HAS to stick to the conference champions, unless they opt for Ohio State over the B1G representative. Not only is it the better move politically, but there were only 3 teams that accomplished anything of note in OOC play: Alabama smashed USC, Michigan beat Colorado, and Ohio State crushed Oklahoma. Only one of those has even a shot at winning their conference, while Clemson and Washington have dominated their conferences. The committee would never be able to live it down if they didn't invite 1-loss Washington or 1-loss Clemson before a 2-loss conference champion or a 1-loss NON-Champion. Cannot and will not happen.
In going 11-1, Clemson has outscored non-FCS opponents 421-204 and ACC opponents 318-167.
In going 11-1, Washington has outscored non-FCS opponents 496-211 and P12 opponents 389-184.
There were only 3 other teams that dominated opponents like that: Alabama, Michigan, and Ohio State. Wisconsin wasn't far off if you look at all non-FCS teams, though they didn't match up as well when only looking at teams with a pulse.
If I'm on the CFP committee, I only see two scenarios if Alabama, Clemson and Washington all hold serve: either invite Ohio State as the #4 despite their not winning a conference title, or hope that Wisconsin beats Penn State (hopefully by a large margin) to maintain the Champions-only factor (since Wisconsin was very close to being undefeated this year while playing a very strong schedule). In order of preference, I would say Wisconsin is the best scenario, but I would prefer a dominate 1-loss Ohio State over PSU as Penn State had a weak schedule as well as not appearing all that dominate throughout the season despite the head to head result. Either way, as long as Alabama/Clemson/Washington hold serve, the B1G rep should be the #4 team because they have the least clean resume (either a 2-loss champ or a non-champ). That would pit the B1G rep against Alabama in the Peach Bowl and Washington vs. Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.
If we apply the transitive property of football (Team A beat Team B, who beat Team C, who beat your team!) then clearly Western Michigan University deserves a shot. They are better than every team not named Alabama.
For example, WMU beat Northwestern, who beat Iowa, who beat Michigan, who beat Penn State, who beat Ohio State. Therefore, WMU > OSU.
The same case can be made for EVERY top team other than Alabama.
WMU beat Central Michigan, who beat Oklahoma State, who beat Pitt, who beat Clemson. Therefore WMU > Clemson.
http://www.myteamisbetterthanyourteam.com/
But, if we reject the transitive property in application to undefeated WMU, we should reject it in all cases.
According to the ESPN expert, 10 teams have a hope for the 4-team playoff going into the final week. All have 2 losses or less and undefeated Western Michigan is not on the list. 4 teams from Big10--Penn St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan. 2 teams from Pac12--Colorado, Washington. 2 teams from Big12 Oklahoma/Oklahoma St (each have 2 losses but play head to head this weekend for de facto big12 title). 1 team from ACC---Clemson. 1 team from SEC--Alabama. It would appear that Alabama/Clemson/Washington would get in with a win in their conf. champ game. And then the Big10 champ would be the other team in. But a Clemson/Washington loss would make things complicated and open the door for Colorado if they win, Ohio St or Michigan and the Oklahoma/Oklahoma St game winner. I'd personally be absolutely shocked if Michigan was selected, since they lost last weekend for the second time (Ohio St/other conf champ should have edge on them). And dare I say, If Alabama loses, perhaps they don't get in if the committee treats that SEC championship like an elimination game for them. If Clem/Wash/Bama win, and B1G champ goes, Ohio St is probably the most disappointed and shocked team left out. They will be the TCU of a couple years ago (ironically they jumped ahead of TCU then to get in and win it all).
I think Ohio State and Alabama are in, no question.
Bama is undefeated. Ohio State played the toughest schedule in the nation, has one loss, and it was a fluke play on the road that beat them.
Clemson and Washington are in if they win.
I think Oklahoma leapfrog's the B1G winner if Washington or Clemson lose. The committee will get a representative from four of the five conferences that way.
As a Penn State fan, I don't have a problem with that. I'd rather play in a competitive Rose Bowl then get curb stomped by Alabama in the first game of the playoff.
Mr. Obvious wrote:
I think Penn State will get in over Ohio State if they win the conference championship game.
I'm going to pull a Flagpole here...
These is a 0% chance that Ohio State doesn't make the playoff. 0. 0. 0. ZEROOOOOOO. #2, then beating the #3... they are a lock.
Alabama is also a lock - even if they lose by 20. LOCK.
That leaves 2 spots...
Unless Penn State wins 50-6 and Clemson and/or Washington lose, they are sitting at #5/6.
If Penn State only wins 10-6, and one of the above teams loses, Michigan (who destroyed them) or even Colorado/OK could sneak in over Penn State.
Penn State Fan wrote:
I think Ohio State and Alabama are in, no question.
Bama is undefeated. Ohio State played the toughest schedule in the nation, has one loss, and it was a fluke play on the road that beat them.
Clemson and Washington are in if they win.
I think Oklahoma leapfrog's the B1G winner if Washington or Clemson lose. The committee will get a representative from four of the five conferences that way.
As a Penn State fan, I don't have a problem with that. I'd rather play in a competitive Rose Bowl then get curb stomped by Alabama in the first game of the playoff.
Finally, some wisdom. The Big Ten can't get OSU and Mich both in with neither of them playing the conference championship. As good as Michigan is, they just lost two of their last three and OSU beat them. Oklahoma is the sleeper pick if they beat #10 Okla St this wknd and Clemson or UW lose, and they are playing as well as anyone besides maybe USC and Bama.
CU has no chance to make the final four. They played Michigan well for three quarters until their 1st string QB got knocked out of the game & the defense got tired after so many three and outs. But, if they win, they will have only beaten one ranked opponent in UW with WSU and Utah dropping out of the top 25.
I think the Big Ten is a good conference, and I could live with Wisconsin getting in, especially if they win YUGE, but I just think the conference is over represented as it is w/4 of the top 8 teams.
Of course, crazy things could happen, and UW and Clemson could both lose, but I doubt it. I don't see how either PSU or Wisco leap over the team that beat them both. I think Oklahoma is it if they win solidly. The problem w/Oklahoma is they tend to underperform in the big game, so the committee may view them cynically.
Karl Hungus wrote:
Their program should have suffered the death penalty after Sandusky. I'd root for Al Qaeda over Penn State.
If you want to talk about who should have and shouldn't have done things, the NCAA shouldn't have gotten involved in the case in the first place. NCAA rules weren't violated, although abuse reporting laws were.
As Spencer Hall said at the time, it's like a homeowners' association trying to get involved in a triple murder case.
Macdaddy wrote:
Mr. Obvious wrote:I think Penn State will get in over Ohio State if they win the conference championship game.
I'm going to pull a Flagpole here...
These is a 0% chance that Ohio State doesn't make the playoff. 0. 0. 0. ZEROOOOOOO. #2, then beating the #3... they are a lock.
I see this working out about as well for you as it did for that blowhard.
Miss Wumi Abdul wrote:
The Big Ten is really strong this year. Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan could all lay a claim on a spot in the top four. Probably only one will get in, and it will probably be Ohio State, with only one loss. Washington really doesn't belong, imho, I think the winner of the Penn State/Wisconsin game should get in as well.
Or it is really mediocre and you have 4 good teams but 0 great teams. We don't have enough out of conference games to really draw many conclusions between conferences.
Is the Ohio State team that needed questionable calls to beat michigan, overtime to beat Wisconsin and barely squeaked out wins over crappy northwestern and michigan state teams better than a WA state that lost to USC and squeaked out victories over Arizona and utah? Who the heck knows. Early season biases (wisc beating LSU looked a lot better then than now. Same thing with Clemson beating Louisville.)
I'm glad we have a 4 team playoff. Can you imagine this season with the old BCS? There would be 4-5 teams with the credentials to get destroyed by Alabama.
There should be a rule that if you don't win your conference then you can't be in the playoff.
Mr. Obvious wrote:
Macdaddy wrote:I'm going to pull a Flagpole here...
These is a 0% chance that Ohio State doesn't make the playoff. 0. 0. 0. ZEROOOOOOO. #2, then beating the #3... they are a lock.
I see this working out about as well for you as it did for that blowhard.
Don't hold your breathe. Ohio State is in - Penn State/Wisconsin need a lot of help.
asdfasdfa wrote:
Or it is really mediocre and you have 4 good teams but 0 great teams. We don't have enough out of conference games to really draw many conclusions between conferences.
Could be. I think the talent level is very high at Ohio State and Michigan. Less so at Wisconsin and Penn State.
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are all ranked in the top-10 in FBS total defense (Alabama is #1). I think that's where the Big Ten will hang its hat. It's certainly not on offense. But, defense wins championships, right?