I was checking out betting odds and this blew me away.
Donald Trump is 4.7 to 1 to be the next President according to Betfair. That means he wins 17.5% of the time.
The Dallas Cowboys are 14 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. That means they win it 6.66% of the time.
Trump is 2.63 times more likely to be President than the Cowboys win the Superbowl, according to betting odds. Those are the facts.
The Cowboys' record right now is 51 and I think they are one of the better teams in the NFC. Their odds are 6 to 1 to win the NFC, so Trump is more likely to be President than for the Cowboys to be in the Superbowl.
Those are the facts.
My initial thought was "are they Cowboys really that bad?" But I think a) Trump's odds are better than I thought and b) I'm overestimating the odds of the Cowboys winning the whole thing even if they are good.
If the playoffs started today and the Cowboys had a first round bye and were 60% favorites in all 3 of their playoff games counting the Supe rBowl (highly unlikely) they'd only win the Super Bowl 21% of the time. Throw in the rest of the season, facing the Seahawks and Patriots, etc and the odds plummet off.
Oddschecker President Odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uspolitics/uspresidentialelection2016/winner
Oddschecker SuperBowl Odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/americanfootball/nfl/superbowl/winner
Betfair President: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419
Betfair SuperBowl:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/americanfootball/market/1.122868354
Thoughts?
Interpret How You Want: Donald Trump is 2.6 Times More Likely to Be President Than for the Cowboys to Win Superbowl
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Democrats are housecoat Hillary lovers. That's gross!

MAGA! BIGLY! MAGA BIGLY!

Think about how many teams have a reasonable chance of winning the super bowl at this point. There are only two candidates with a chance to be president.

Using advanced analytics, I determined that:
Trump has a 0% chance of winning the election.
and
Dallas has a 49% chance to win the NFC as long as Prescott and Zeke stay healthy, but only a 4% chance to win the SB because nobody's beating the Pats this year. 
Has more to with the fact there's way more NFL teams than presidential candidates probably

Wow. We have a true mastermind statistician over here.
This is the dumbest thread of the day by far and there were some real duds. 
Agreed. How do these people even get out of bed?
Really wejo? wrote:
Wow. We have a true mastermind statistician over here.
This is the dumbest thread of the day by far and there were some real duds. 
Probably because it's easier to fix and rig the US elections than the Super Bowl.

wejo wrote:
I was checking out betting odds and this blew me away.
Donald Trump is 4.7 to 1 to be the next President according to Betfair. That means he wins 17.5% of the time.
The Dallas Cowboys are 14 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. That means they win it 6.66% of the time.
Trump is 2.63 times more likely to be President than the Cowboys win the Superbowl, according to betting odds. Those are the facts.
Thoughts?
So you're saying the Broncos are gonna be President?? 
I was thinking the presidency has 4:1 odds to go to wentzylvania. But wejo's trump has 4:1 in wentzylvania. Does this mean the presidency goes to wentzylvania?

Derp Nation wrote:
So you're saying the Broncos are gonna be President??
Nah I think he's saying there's an 53% odds Clinton wins the Superbowl. 
Really wejo? wrote:
Wow. We have a true mastermind statistician over here.
This is the dumbest thread of the day by far and there were some real duds.
+1 
On another thread, rojo claims to have 4 write in votes. Since at least a dozen of us remember that AND vote, what are the odds of rojo being elected president? I think he has a better chance of being president than Mike Pence.
rojo, 2020 
This a thread about how much the Cowboys suck, right? Can't wait for ole Jerry to put Romo back in. Lolololololololol

Gambling odds have nothing to do with who will win. Odds are set based on how people will bet, and attempt  and usually succeed  in guaranteeing the house wins.

If you think the odds don't reflect the true probabilities, then that means either (a) you are wrong, or (b) you know more than the other people betting and you have an opportunity to make some easy money.
Generally betting markets do a pretty good job predicting outcomes. If the odds imply a probability of 17%, then indeed that thing happens about one sixth of the time. 
skin in the game wrote:
If you think the odds don't reflect the true probabilities, then that means either (a) you are wrong, or (b) you know more than the other people betting and you have an opportunity to make some easy money.
Generally betting markets do a pretty good job predicting outcomes. If the odds imply a probability of 17%, then indeed that thing happens about one sixth of the time.
Of course the odds don't vary wildly from the probability, but they do change if way more money goes to one side. The odds are ultimately based on the the amount of money wagered on each side. 
Per Flagpole Donald Trump has ZERO chance of winning. Ergo the Cowboys have LESS THAN ZERO chance, unless they give 110% effort in which case they might get to Rojo's 6.66%.

AntiAmerican Dream wrote:
Using advanced analytics, I determined that:
Trump has a 0% chance of winning the election.
and
Dallas has a 49% chance to win the NFC as long as Prescott and Zeke stay healthy, but only a 4% chance to win the SB because nobody's beating the Pats this year.
Mods, please put this on the leaderboard for dumbest post of all time.