2016 NYC Marathon Fields released - Does Ritz have a chance (only 4 other sub-2:08 guys in the race)?

We also rank Chicago, Berlin and New York for the fall.

For the men, we said it's:

1. Berlin

2. New York

3. Chicago

For the women, we didn't rank all three but it's clear NYC is #1.

Didn't realize Kipsiro had moved to the marathon, but I hope ritz has a great race and is in the mix, he's definitely in great shape so hopefully it comes together in a marathon for him.

I believe the writers of letsrun.com are over looking the talent of Gwen Jorgensen. It's her debut but I see her finishing on the podium. I've witnessed some of her tri runs. Her style is running people down to take the lead. She will be on the podium in November.

I believe the writers of letsrun.com are over looking the talent of Gwen Jorgensen. It's her debut but I see her finishing on the podium. I've witnessed some of her tri runs. Her style is running people down to take the lead. She will be on the podium in November.

I believe you underestimate the difference between a triathlon and a marathon. Even if shes more talented than anyone in the field she will have by far the least preparation.

deejay wrote:

I believe the writers of letsrun.com are over looking the talent of Gwen Jorgensen. It's her debut but I see her finishing on the podium. I've witnessed some of her tri runs. Her style is running people down to take the lead. She will be on the podium in November.

I agree, Gwen Jorgenson FTW. She's the Olympic Champion.

Her style is to beat other runners. That's got to work well in a running race, where the goal is to beat other runners.

deejay wrote:

I believe the writers of letsrun.com are over looking the talent of Gwen Jorgensen. It's her debut but I see her finishing on the podium. I've witnessed some of her tri runs. Her style is running people down to take the lead. She will be on the podium in November.

From the following article:

"Jorgensen, 30, also plans to compete in the Island House Triathlon, Oct. 28-30 in the Bahamas. That triathlon is made up of multiple events over three days, with a field of elite athletes competing for $500,000 in prize money.

A week later, she’ll be in New York to run in her first marathon. And she readily admits she’ll be under-prepared.

'I have no goals for New York'"

There is just no way she finishes on the podium. If the over/under is 2:30, I'd definitely take the over.

Jorgensen might surprise people in a 10k or half IMO (shoe-in at making the trials IMO ), but not in her first 26.2

Ritz I hope finishes. When was the last time he he didn't step off course in a marathon bib-in-hand?

Gwen will run fairly conservatively and be in the area of 2:40-2:43 is what I bet on.

Sit and kick wrote:

Ritz I hope finishes. When was the last time he he didn't step off course in a marathon bib-in-hand?

That would be his second most recent marathon, Boston 2015, where he was with the leaders through the hills and was the top American finisher.

What's your implied list of marathon DNFs other than this year's trials?

I love Gwen and believe she'll be competitive, but unrealistic to think in that field she has the experience and strength to land on the podium this year. Unlikely any of her training has had greater than a 15 mile run, and with WTS Cozumel this weekend, she won't move off ITU training until after this week.

2:28 could happen,

LetsRun.com wrote:

The 2016 TCS New York City Marathon fields are out and given that it's an Olympic year, the men's field is lacking in depth as there are only 2 sub-2:07 guys in the field and a grant total of 4 sub-2:08 guys in the field not named Dathan Ritzenhein.

Could Ritz win it? Find out the scoop and full fields here:

http://www.letsrun.com/?p=126374

The women's field is stronger as Molly Huddle will have to battle 4 sub-2:20 women.

I know it's an Olympic year and all, but there is tons of money on the line here, and there are many sub 2:08 guys that didn't run in the Olympics. Why wouldn't more talent be showing up?

Gwen Jorgensen isn't the the first olympic level triathlete to test herself in a marathon. Her fiercest competitor in rio - nicola spirig - did so in 2014.

On April 6 2014 she ran 2:42:53 in zurich to qualify for the european champs to be held in the same town later that year.

Then on August 16 she pred with a time of 2:37:12 to finish 24th.

Since NYM doesn't have paid pacers, the race strategy and pacing is going to be interesting since there are 5 men who are sub-2:08 runners (and even among those 5, two are 2:03/4 guys and the other three 2:07 guys), and then a big gap back to 2:10:57, 2:11:48, 2:12, etc. The lead pack could be quite small from 10K on if those five keep the pace honest, but will any of them be willing to lead and push the pace? If not, you could see a slow pack including the 2:12/15 guys and then some great racing in the last 10K. The marathon requires patience. It will be very very interesting to see how this plays out with so few fast runners, big payouts, and no paid pacers.