Could an elite steepler run a sub-4:00 mile over the barriers and water pit?

TrackBot! VDOT 7:53 3000m

VDOT for 7:53 3.0km: 77

Equivalent race times based on VDOT:

Marathon: 02:11:49

Half marathon: 01:02:55

15K: 00:43:47

10K: 00:28:35

5K: 00:13:44

3Mi: 00:13:14

2Mi: 00:08:31

3200m: 00:08:28

3K: 00:07:53

1Mi: 00:03:59

1600m: 00:03:57

1500m: 00:03:41

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A really rough translation, of course, but I do think the possibility is there.

I'll concede it might be close. Shaheen hits 3:05.9 on 4 laps and 3.13.0 to the 5k start, which puts the difference at 7.1 sec. 7.1 divided by 6.5 laps give you 1.09 sec for each lap to get you to 400m splits. So the 1200m and 1600m marks are 3:07.0 and 4:13.2, or 4:14.7 for the mile. (WR steeplechase pace is 4:14.1 pace per mile)

Still 14.1 seconds is a lot more than you think, A guy who runs that pace for two miles gets him 8:28.2. A guy who runs a 8:28 two mile would do well to run 3:57 - 3:58.

The thing is, the 1 mile steeplechase wouldn't lend itself to risk-free all-out running the same way the flat mile would.

I'm going to go with 4:02

please explain wrote:

Well, if Malmo says it can't be done, than it can't be done. A guy who never broke 4 and isn't even in the top 3500 steeple times certainly should be considered the top expert in the field!

I was 23rd all-time before. That's a hell of a lot higher than you'll ever be.

7:53 x [ 3:26 x 1.08 ] / 7:20 = 473 x 222.5 / 440 = 239 = 3:59

There are Olympic finalists in the steeplechase that run right around 4:00 in the flat mile in the same season - i.e. Cabral this year (on the track). For North Americans, Jager would be the only one with an even remote chance, but likely closer to 4:03. I think a sub-7:55 steepler could have a shot at it. Kipruto would have a real chance if a bunch of Kenyans go after it.

Simple mathematics wrote:

7:53 x [ 3:26 x 1.08 ] / 7:20 = 473 x 222.5 / 440 = 239 = 3:59

But it isn't "simple math".

YMMV wrote:

Seems doable by Kipruto, maybe Jager. It would be a worthy event. The higher velocity should actually make barrier clearance a bit easier, but the equivalence is actually 7:54 (VDOT is off), so a 7:58 steepler with good mile speed might pull it off.

The correct take on this.

malmo wrote:

Simple mathematics wrote:

7:53 x [ 3:26 x 1.08 ] / 7:20 = 473 x 222.5 / 440 = 239 = 3:59

But it isn't "simple math".

I think "an elite steepler" suggests that we're asking whether a ~8:10 man could run a sub 4 mile over barriers. Malmo's right, they couldn't.

The very very best steeplechasers ever - Kiptanui, Cherono - would seem to have been just about at the level that would have given them a chance though.

Of course this is classic letsrun nonsense. We'll never know, who cares?!

PS Of COURSE they're not called steeples, ffs why are people arguing with Malmo on this one? Next you'll be trying to insist that it's legitimate to call the projectile in the shot put a "put".

in a cakewalk wrote:

Let's take Mo Farah. He is the dominant 5,000/10,000 runner of the decade, and has competed very successfully at the half marathon. 12:53 / 26:46 / 59:32. Distance runner. Openly eyeing the marathon. And he ran 3:28.

4 or 5 years is not a decade.

In theory, that would be possible; however, you would need a sub-7:55 guy with a good mile time (3:46 or less) in order to accomplish such a feat. Very unlikely for the moment.

malmo wrote:

Meb FTW wrote:

Interesting question. It's close but I don't think so. A 3:50 miler would only have 10 seconds to spare on 3 water jumps and more than 10 steeples.

Snort. They're not called steeples.

To answer the question, it's not even close.

Not even close? I don't know whether there's been anyone who could do it, but there are certainly guys who could have come within 2-3 seconds. Either you don't think that counts as "close," or we have very different estimations of what 7:53-7:58 steeplers could do.

If we look at the "decay" relative to flat events, which is obviously just one barometer, the steeple is run at about 93% of the pace as the flat 3k. If the equivalent 1500m steeple had the same relationship to the WR, it would be around 3:41.5, which I think we can agree is 3:59.x.

Now, there are certainly some assumptions going into that calculation so I think 4:00.0+ is well within the margin of error for all that. However, I think that going at a slightly faster pace may make the barriers less of a hindrance (I don't really know for sure, my slowest steeple was 9:29 and I actually felt more inhibited doing the 400m hurdles at a much faster pace than during that race). Also, the first 200m of the race is just flat, which would constitute a higher percentage of the mile steeple than the 3000m steeple.

All that said, I think there's a reasonable chance someone could have put down a 3:58-3:59 by now if it was a regularly-contested event, but I wouldn't wager a ton of money on it.

But I think malmo's assertion that it wouldn't even be close is definitely off base.

Sir Bastion Newbold wrote:

PoisonIvy wrote:

I have no idea if it is possible or not but I would pony up a few bucks to watch a serious attempt by a world class field.

If there was serious prize money on the line for the winner only (thus changing the friendly race tactics to something more "assertive"), I would be doubly interested!

I hate tactical "races".

Agreed, would be good to see it tried, although I reckon getting under 4.05 would be tough.

For reference - World record for 2k chase is 5.10.68 (62 seconds per lap)- British record is 5.19.86 (64 second per lap).

1 mile flat: 3.43.19 (55.49 )

2000m flat : 4:44.79 (56.96 )

If the steepler improves the same amount we are looking at a 4:05ish mile. Now the 2000m flat is likely a bit more solid of a record than the 2000m steeple. It sort of seems doable to me but you probably need a slightly different athlete (a guy with more of a 1500m bias rather than 5k). I wonder if that is the future of track when people decide records are untouchable. Start new events:)

malmo wrote:

I'll concede it might be close. Shaheen hits 3:05.9 on 4 laps and 3.13.0 to the 5k start, which puts the difference at 7.1 sec. 7.1 divided by 6.5 laps give you 1.09 sec for each lap to get you to 400m splits. So the 1200m and 1600m marks are 3:07.0 and 4:13.2, or 4:14.7 for the mile. (WR steeplechase pace is 4:14.1 pace per mile)

Still 14.1 seconds is a lot more than you think, A guy who runs that pace for two miles gets him 8:28.2. A guy who runs a 8:28 two mile would do well to run 3:57 - 3:58.

The thing is, the 1 mile steeplechase wouldn't lend itself to risk-free all-out running the same way the flat mile would.

I'm going to go with 4:02

Good point that there wouldn't be that freewheeling charge of an open mile.

I'll agree, not in s cakewalk at all, but with paying admission to watch...

Jäger and Benabbad both have nearly identical, recent 10k times that would lose badly to that wejo guy. How come they are so slow at 10k? Jager isn't slow at 5000.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Jäger and Benabbad both have nearly identical, recent 10k times that would lose badly to that wejo guy. How come they are so slow at 10k? Jager isn't slow at 5000.

I don't know about M-H but Jager? Look at all the hair on his head! He could run a 26:02 10k if he shaved his head.

How about a 5k steeplechase?

Mr. Johnson gives a good analysis here of the slow down over the barriers.

The 400m race is 91.98% slower over hurdles. But there are also 10 of them.