Since Murphy > Centro: How much would Murphy have won the 1500 by?

But Maklouhfi beat Murphy in the 800, and Centro beat Maklouhfi... Sooo...

cbenson4 wrote:

But Maklouhfi beat Murphy in the 800, and Centro beat Maklouhfi... Sooo...

You just blew everyone's mind.

ohio native wrote:

So we all saw the 1k in Houston where Murphy beat Centro. Since the men's 1500 was painfully so, and basically turned into a 600, I think it's safe to say Murphy would have won the 1500 gold had he run it.

The question is by how much?

He would probably have gotten shoved back by Makhloufi and the crowd and finished 9-10.

Seriously, Makhloufi, Kiprop, Willis, etc. have ALL beaten Centro. He didn't win because he had superior 1500m ability. He won because he ran intelligently and positioned himself in a way that it was impossible for even those with a better kick to pass him without running a detrimental amount of extra distance.

cbenson4 wrote:

But Maklouhfi beat Murphy in the 800, and Centro beat Maklouhfi... Sooo...

It's like paper rock scissors!

Whoa! Mind Blown. I assumed a theory should apply, but it doesn't. Whoa!

What a bunch of mental defects.

The property that is mindfvcking you is transitivity.

As an Ohioan and a big fan of Murphy, I do not believe he would have beaten Centro.

Centro's race was too smart and played out absolutely perfectly considering the pace, traffic, and resulting physical nature. Anyone trying to come from anywhere but the lead on the rail would have to be incredibly superior to Centro and that currently doesn't exist.

just the facts wrote:

As an Ohioan and a big fan of Murphy,

How is this relevant? If you weren't from Ohio, how would it change your reasoning?

The fvck!

I was obviously joking

What?? wrote:

just the facts wrote:

As an Ohioan and a big fan of Murphy,

How is this relevant? If you weren't from Ohio, how would it change your reasoning?

The fvck!

Ohioans like telling people that their from Ohio. I know this because I'm from Ohio, in case you were wondering.

They're.

Ohioans are also uneducated. Case in point.

Seyta wrote:

ohio native wrote:

So we all saw the 1k in Houston where Murphy beat Centro. Since the men's 1500 was painfully so, and basically turned into a 600, I think it's safe to say Murphy would have won the 1500 gold had he run it.

The question is by how much?

He would probably have gotten shoved back by Makhloufi and the crowd and finished 9-10.

Seriously, Makhloufi, Kiprop, Willis, etc. have ALL beaten Centro. He didn't win because he had superior 1500m ability. He won because he ran intelligently and positioned himself in a way that it was impossible for even those with a better kick to pass him without running a detrimental amount of extra distance.

But that's exactly why this is a semi-interesting question: Murphy has proven himself to be a master tactician as well.

kimani wrote:

Seyta wrote:

He would probably have gotten shoved back by Makhloufi and the crowd and finished 9-10.

Seriously, Makhloufi, Kiprop, Willis, etc. have ALL beaten Centro. He didn't win because he had superior 1500m ability. He won because he ran intelligently and positioned himself in a way that it was impossible for even those with a better kick to pass him without running a detrimental amount of extra distance.

But that's exactly why this is a semi-interesting question: Murphy has proven himself to be a master tactician as well.

Murphy is a fantastic runner, but he is not a "master tactician" (at least not based on his Olympic performance).

1) He made it out of the prelims almost by luck given his performance there. He finished outside of the Top 3 in his heat, but was saved by the fact that he was in a fast, Rudisha-paced heat, while immediately after, Makhloufi, Bosse, and Aman made their own heats go at snail-pace.

Had he made the Top 3 of his heat, THEN it would have been good tactics.

2) His finals performance was effectively identical to Ward's. Half the runners were killed off by attempting to go with a suicidal 1st-Lap pace, and he just managed to stay out of the carnage.

Centro manages to somehow position himself so that he can either control, or is optimized for a kick on the last lap in almost every race, despite having inferior fitness to most of his competitors. If you rewatch the 1500m finals, you'll notice that there are several instances of guys trying to get around Centro, but he never lets them (Kiprop on his shoulder being one of the most notable).

Typically in Centro's races, the only way he doesn't do well is if someone makes the pace fast enough that it's just beyond his fitness entirely (with some exceptions of course).

Murphy, in contrast, doesn't quite control the race or optimize his positioning as well. The stars just aligned for him while he also happened to run a huge PR.

just the facts wrote:

As an Ohioan and a big fan of Murphy, I do not believe he would have beaten Centro.

Centro's race was too smart and played out absolutely perfectly considering the pace, traffic, and resulting physical nature. Anyone trying to come from anywhere but the lead on the rail would have to be incredibly superior to Centro and that currently doesn't exist.

Murphy doesn't have the strength yet to handle Centro at the 1500, never mind the others. That said, things could change as quickly as next season. Matt may get under 3:30 this season or next, but Murphy is likely going to hit 1:42 flat minimum, likely mid 1:41's over the 800 and probably 3:28 in the 1500 eventually.

I have to wonder what Jim Ryun would have done in that slow Oly final. He ran faster in a 3:38 race (it's on Youtube), no one else has been able to run like that in a sub 3:40 race. If he had that much speed reserve in a much faster race, he would likely have at least a little more left in a much slower race (probably a lot).

But it's all conjecture. Centro won and it's driving the jealous LR posters nuts. Congrats to Matt!

I find it extremely unlikely Murphy would have contended for a medal in the 1500m final, in part since he probably wouldn't have positioned himself/been able to run the 49.xx or 50-low final lap that it would have taken unless he'd run near the front, and he just isn't at the level at 1500m as guys like Willis (who basically employed the strategy Murphy would have needed to medal).

But the fact he hasn't reached his potential should be taken as a compliment; if anyone breaks Rudisha's 800m WR or pulls off an unthinkable double for 800/1500 in 2020 or 2024, my money's on Murphy (maybe the youngest Ingebrigtsen or the next Kenyan sensation could as well). He's very green in terms of development and racing experience, yet he got an Olympic bronze in the 800m running 1:42. He's shown to have 400m speed better than pretty much all the top 1500m guys, he's extremely smart tactically, and his endurance/strength is developing remarkably. To see how he progresses over the next 1-2 years will be very telling in terms of his potential; but unlike Solomon or Symmonds, I doubt this Olympics 800m performance will remain his PR.

Your 2nd point isn't fair. Murphy ran mid-pack the whole way, he came through the first 200 and 400 around 0.5 to 0.7 off the lead time. Not exactly laying off the pace.

TrackBot! Compare Clayton Murphy versus Matthew Centrowitz

TrackBot! Compare Taoufik Makhloufi versus Matthew Centrowitz

Head-to-head record between Clayton Murphy (left) and Matthew Centrowitz (right):

Portland OR 2016-06-12: 1500 m: 3:36.23 (1) VS 3:41.39 (9)

ATL Houston TX 2016-07-23: 1000 m: 2:20.12 (1) VS 2:20.20 (2)

Clayton "MF" Murphy total wins: 2

Matthew "DEVASTATED" Centrowitz total wins: 0

Head-to-head record between Taoufik Makhloufi (left) and Matthew Centrowitz (right):

OG London 2012-08-07: 1500 m: 3:34.08 (1) VS 3:35.17 (4)

VD Bruxelles 2012-09-07: 1500 m: 3:33.42 (8) VS 3:32.47 (4)

Pre Eugene OR 2013-06-01: One Mile: 3:52.94 (11) VS 3:51.79 (10)

Pre Eugene OR 2014-05-31: One Mile: 3:52.16 (11) VS 3:50.53 (8)

Herc Monaco 2015-07-17: 1500 m: 3:28.75 (2) VS 3:30.40 (10)

WC Beijing 2015-08-30: 1500 m: 3:34.76 (4) VS 3:36.13 (8)

OG Río de Janeiro 2016-08-20: 1500 m: 3:50.11 (2) VS 3:50.00 (1)

Taoufik "DEVASTATED" Makhloufi total wins: 3

Matthew "MF" Centrowitz total wins: 4

TrackBot supports Nicolo Filippazzo:

https://fb.com/vegancoyote/

I am a bot. Info:

http://habs.sdf.org/trackbot

I think you're being a tad over optimistic at this stage re Murphy.

The history books are littered with athletes who ran their fastest in an Olympic final at a young age, and never improved on that. Amos is a good case in point.

I think too many on here Consider a 1:42 flat as something that is easily achieved. History has shown that only 5 guys have met that.

I don't think Murphy will break 1:42.5 next year, but if he can consolidate with a 1:43 flat, then a 1:42 flat is a possibility.