Will Galen Rupp place in the Olympic marathon?

Agree! Go Galen!

Lots of us picked Rupp to medal in 2012. He was clearly one of the favorites, with the African teams fairly weak.

He might medal, he might not. What's laughable is the huge number of you who are completely certain of the outcome one way or the other.

In wrote:

[quote]The answer is in... wrote:

Not true in the marathon. He will be fine. He will run extremely well.

Also, just because he hasn't run sub 2:06 doesn't mean he can't. He's only run one marathon and it was an OT's win. There is no reason that with significant competition, Galen won't rise to the occasion as he did in 2012 when he medaled even tho no one expected it. After all, the 2:05 guys hadn't run 2:05 either until they did!

Again, use Mohamed Farah as a benchmark. If there was a British "national" marathon, Farah would win. He'd likely win in a 2:11+ time because that's what a Brit-only race would dictate. But, Farah's first marathon was a stud-packed international marathon. He finished 8th and almost a full 4 minutes behind Kipsang's 2:04.xx. Mo didn't run sub 2:06, but 4 guys ran 2:06 and below in the marathon he finished 8th in.

I repeat myself...and maybe I'm just falling to trollism, but I know some of you actually think Rupp will medal in his second marathon, where his PR is up to 8 minutes slower than the favorite.

lottojumbo wrote:

1. Kipchoge 2. Rupp 3. Biwott

Ditto.

I hope Rupp runs tough and challenges Kipchoge even if it ultimately costs him.

I also hope it is hot.

But Salazar and Rupp seem to be placing a lot of emphasis that Olympic marathon's are more tactical relative to the other big marathons and therefore will play more to his strengths. I don't know if that is true or not but that is their rationale for thinking they can medal.

ryan foreman wrote:

But Salazar and Rupp seem to be placing a lot of emphasis that Olympic marathon's are more tactical relative to the other big marathons and therefore will play more to his strengths. I don't know if that is true or not but that is their rationale for thinking they can medal.

2008 was won in 2:06.x by Wanjiru and 2012 in 2:08.10 by Kiprotich (back to defend).

Here are 18 entrants with sub 2:10s under their belts. There are more than this, but it's a snapshot of the line.

Abera – 2:04.24

Abraham - 2:06.40

April – 2:08.32

Barkowet – 2:09.22

Bat-Ochir – 2:08.50

Berhanu – 2:04.33

Biwott – 2:03.51

Dechasa – 2:06.33

Estifanos – 2:09.15

Ghebreslassie – 2:07.46

Guerra – 2:09.33

Kipchoge – 2:03.05

Kiprotich – 2:06.33

Kitajima – 2:09.16

Korir W – 2:06.13

Lilesa – 2:04.52

Mesel – 2:08.17

Sasaki – 2:08.56

Gold

/EOT/

Salazar has said Rupp is light years ahead of where Mo was before London, and he is better suited for the roads/long stuff than Mo. So he could perform way better than Mo in his opener against real comp.

He has not been pushed. He is a 26:44 guy who has will toe the line and get pushed for the first time. It's gonna be interesting as hell that's for sure.

What position will have Rupp if he runs 2:06:xx?

Position 1

George Ilie wrote:

What position will have Rupp if he runs 2:06:xx?

He'll run right around 2:06:xx....for 25 miles. Finishing in 2:12+ for about 7th or 8th solid result for his second 'thon. Chance of gold: 0%. Chance of a medal: 10%.

That'll be his 25 mile split.. wrote:

George Ilie wrote:

What position will have Rupp if he runs 2:06:xx?

He'll run right around 2:06:xx....for 25 miles. Finishing in 2:12+ for about 7th or 8th solid result for his second 'thon. Chance of gold: 0%. Chance of a medal: 10%.

^ This. And maybe that's better as 5% chance of medal.

NOPe.

I think the slower the pace, the better Rupp's chances. If it is a tactical race, if they are bunched up, I think he can pull out a medal. But if the Africans use surging and attempt to string out the field, I think his odds will go down, and Meb's will go up, as he is the stronger closer.

Overall though, I think we've got our best shot at a medal since Meb in '04. I'm very excited to see what happens!

Mark my fing words, Rupp wins this race.

Here's the problem with your thought process: you are placing marathoners who have been dragged to fast times by a seemingly infinite supply of pacers on a pedestal.

This marathon will have no pacers and no one working together. The Kenyans always say they will but they never do.

Meb does well in championship races because no one is running 2:03 to 2:06 pace. If they did Meb would have been outside the top 10. The only difference between Meb and Rupp in a championship marathon is that Rupp has much, much more upside than Meb. When they drop a 4:20 something mile late in the race Rupp has the wheels to respond.

That's not putting Rupp on a marathon pedestal, that is assessing Rupp's strengths against a likely tactical scenario in this particular marathon. I do agree that we could expect a Mo-like performance in a Berlin/London type of marathon for Rupp (although I suspect that Mo's dominance over Rupp in the 5k/10ks could possibly indicate that Rupp would be better than him at the marathon distance).

So I will say that, not only is Rupp a medal contender this Sunday, but I'm sensing a silver medal to match Meb's in Athens and then a Boston win April 2017. You heard it here first.

Lack of experience=No medal wrote:

twoten wrote:

Will history repeat itself? In 1972 Frank Shorter finished 5th in the 10,000m before winning the marathon. Where will Galen Rupp finish in Rio after his 5th place in the 10,000m?

Galen's chances of winning gold is virtually 0. His chances of medaling are approximately the same as Trump being the next POTUS (per Nate Silver this right around 10%).

They are saying it's going to much hotter this coming Sunday than it was for the women's marathon. This strongly favors the Africans--who were already going to beat Rupp anyway.

In the heat, the best shot at a medal is Meb for the US. My bet is for the US runners is....

Meb (3rd) in 2:10:27

Rupp (14th) in 2:14:56

Ward (18th) in 2:16:43

Hold on, you're going to tell me that Meb is a better heat runner when Rupp kicked that old mans a$$ at a hot Olympic trials. Some people's ignorance amazes me

I'm betting on him getting gold, he's a great distance runner, head and shoulders above the rest of the white world, he also does better in hotter races, like the Olympics, remember in Beijing when kpisang and kimettow both dnf'd? I'm predicting the same with Biwott and kipchoge just won't have the final kick to beat rupp, meb top 10, ward top 20

I'm not much of a Rupp fan, but I definitely think he's in contention for the medals. Some things people are missing:

1) Olympic marathons tend to play out more like the unrabbited 2:09+ Boston and New York races, not like the rabbited 2:04 Berlins and Dubais. The course is going to have annoying turns and unfavorable conditions (just like the US trials).

2) The race is not all that deep and a lot of dropouts/disasters happen at the Olympics. Plus, neither Kenya nor Ethiopia have their full A team on the line.

3) Everyone is underestimating Meb like they always do. He was 4th at the most recent Olympics and won Boston in 2014 over Wilson Chebet, who would be a medal contender in this field. Meb should be in the conversation for a top 5 finish if not a medal, especially if the favorites falter. And Rupp handled him pretty comfortably at the trials.

4) Olympic marathoning is about racing not time trialing. I have to keep emphasizing this because people always put way too much emphasis on PRs. Every year, 2:04-2:06 guys come to NYC or Boston and lose in 2:12, or go to the Olympics and lose in 2:12+. Look at the top people in the field and ask who have they beaten when it counts? Not their times.

My take:

Kipchoge should definitely win it. Biwott and then Kiprotich are the favorites of the rest. After that, I'd say the next tier are Meb, Rupp, the Ethiopians, maybe Ghebreslassie, and maybe W. Korir. (Did I miss anyone?) Any of these could snag a medal on a good day, plus there's a good chance that Biwott falters or Kiprotich can't reproduce the magic.

Of the 10 I mentioned, probably 3-4 will have bad days and DNF or be 15th+, but I don't think it'll be Meb or Rupp. That would place them both top 7 on a good day.

And of anyone in that tier, I like Rupp's chances at a silver or bronze because he's got great credentials at 10k and down and seems to continue to do really well as he goes up in distance. I just think he's more of a marathoner than Farah. Sure Mo's 2:08 in London was great for a middle distance guy, but I would guess Rupp can be better at the marathon than Ryan Hall who ran 2:06 in London.