Will Galen Rupp place in the Olympic marathon?

Silver for Rupp

nhvd wrote:

Silver for Rupp

Galen will be dropped. He has one marathon under his belt against weak runners (compared to the world's best). He has never covered 26.2 miles against international competitors.

No medal and outside the top ten.

Oh Hell Nope wrote:

nhvd wrote:

Silver for Rupp

Galen will be dropped. He has one marathon under his belt against weak runners (compared to the world's best). He has never covered 26.2 miles against international competitors.

No medal and outside the top ten.

How is the former Olympic Silver Medalist a weak field?

Update on weather:

100% chance of precipitation

High is 70

Low is 58

At 7am it's forecasted to be 68. At 9am 65.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/today/Rio%20de%20Janeiro,Rio%20de%20Janeiro,Brazil/we-city?weadegreetype=F&tab=details

I'm still amazed by the person in this thread who said it would be hot. He just made that up out of thin air without looking at a forecast

Gold for Galen wrote:

Update on weather:

100% chance of precipitation

High is 70

Low is 58

At 7am it's forecasted to be 68. At 9am 65.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/today/Rio%20de%20Janeiro,Rio%20de%20Janeiro,Brazil/we-city?weadegreetype=F&tab=details

I'm still amazed by the person in this thread who said it would be hot. He just made that up out of thin air without looking at a forecast

It is typically hot in Rio. That's the inductive fallacy, not the "out of thin air" fallacy.

Illinoisphotographer wrote:

Oh Hell Nope wrote:

Galen will be dropped. He has one marathon under his belt against weak runners (compared to the world's best). He has never covered 26.2 miles against international competitors.

No medal and outside the top ten.

How is the former Olympic Silver Medalist a weak field?

Meb isn't weak, but he is well past his prime. Men finished 2nd behind Culpepper in 2004 trials. He finished 2nd to Rupp 12 years later. Certainly Meb has the most longevity of any US marathoners. And I give Meb a better medal chance than Rupp, but neither will be close.

Rupp will trip 10 other runners, going back to check on each one of them.

He'll be DFL.

+1

The easy answer is No. There are only 3 spots and a loaded field.

Even if he runs a great race he could not get on the podium.

Gold, AR, WR (sub-2:00)

comicbookguy wrote:

The easy answer is No. There are only 3 spots and a loaded field.

Even if he runs a great race he could not get on the podium.

I don't think many other marathoners in this field are able to run ~27:10 right now. In 2012, his 5k was the bum race. In 2016, that bum race will be the 10k (and 5th is still damn good.)

1. Kipchoge 2. Rupp 3. Biwott

History and mystery wrote:

And I give Meb a better medal chance than Rupp, but neither will be close.

As a little background on your prognosticating abilities; what chance did you give Simpson to medal?

Anyway, there is no way a 10k silver medalist, 3:50 (i) miler/26:44 10k guy wouldn't be considered a medal favorite regardless of nationality, race, creed or color.

Especially given the Olympic flameout rate of the EAs - no motivation to finish if you aren't absolutely on that day when you can go get a big payday in Oct/Nov.

Jefe in the CO wrote:

History and mystery wrote:

And I give Meb a better medal chance than Rupp, but neither will be close.

As a little background on your prognosticating abilities; what chance did you give Simpson to medal?

Anyway, there is no way a 10k silver medalist, 3:50 (i) miler/26:44 10k guy wouldn't be considered a medal favorite regardless of nationality, race, creed or color.

Especially given the Olympic flameout rate of the EAs - no motivation to finish if you aren't absolutely on that day when you can go get a big payday in Oct/Nov.

Yes. Simpson was a World champion in the event she just grabbed bronze in. Does a previous world gold and world silver @ 1500m make her an Olympic threat, yep. She now has one of each over 1500m international championships ('11,'13,'16).

The marathon is a different animal. Shalane is a bronze medalist over 10000m and a US trials marathon winner. She even has a 2nd at NYC to her name, but she finished 6th in her second Olympic marathon (her first was 9th).

Mo Farah is ace of gold over 10000m yet in 2014 he could only muster an 8th place 2:08.x. That's 3 minutes faster than Rupp's domestic debut.

You people who put Rupp on a marathon pedestal are lame. The marathon breaks runners and each one is its own beast. Meb had the fastest PR at the trials coming in but he's past his prime. Different thing lining up against 2:03-2:06 guys, and there are a bunch.

Yes of course he will place 17th or something. Avoiding a DNF would be a great achievement for 'him'

Who cares about the marathon. There is only one thing that people should be paying attention to on Sunday...Sagan's Olympic debut in XC.

Jefe in the CO wrote:

History and mystery wrote:

And I give Meb a better medal chance than Rupp, but neither will be close.

As a little background on your prognosticating abilities; what chance did you give Simpson to medal?

Anyway, there is no way a 10k silver medalist, 3:50 (i) miler/26:44 10k guy wouldn't be considered a medal favorite regardless of nationality, race, creed or color.

Especially given the Olympic flameout rate of the EAs - no motivation to finish if you aren't absolutely on that day when you can go get a big payday in Oct/Nov.

The top five guys have all run sub 2:05, wouldn't you consider them favorites for a medal? Rupp has not run a fast marathon and hasn't run a fast 10,000m in years. I don't really give a shit what his mile time is. No, I don't think that he's a favorite for a medal.

I see the race playing out very similarly to the women's marathon. The pace will be fairly medium, then pick up. Three Africans will medal, and the Americans will all run quite well but be in the 5th to 12th place range.

Apart from lame dreamers calling gold for Rupp, most of us realize he doesn't factor in. First international marathon competition against serious studs = Rupp left behind.