There are only 3 Kenyans in the race, one of them is Wesley Korir.
How can you not think Rupp has a shot at a medal? He crushed Meb at the Trials. Meb was 4th in the last Olympics.
Rupp certainly has a shot at a medal. The betting sites say it's 4-1 to medal.http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/athletics/mens/mens-marathon/top-3-finish
It's way easier for Rupp to win the Olympics than it is for him to win London. Also at a major marathon, no one pays attention to who is third. If Rupp get third here, everyone goes bonkers.
The fact is there are only 3 Kenyans and 3 Ethiopians in the field. And one of them for some idiotic reason is Wesley Korir.
The idea that Rupp is going to rock the marathon is far from proven, however. In the history of the world, a white guy hasn't run faster than 2:06 on a legit course. But let's assume Rupp is the best white guy in history so he could run 2:05. That doesnt' mean he can beat Kipchoge.
Here are Kipchoge's career marathons:
2:05:30 1 Haspa Hamburg
2:04:05 2 BMW Berlin
2:05:00 1 ABN AMRO Rotterdam
2:04:11 1 BankOfAm Chicago IL
2:04:42 1 Virgin Money London
2:04:00 1 BMW Berlin
2:03:05 1 Virgin Money London
So for us to think rupp is going to win, we have to believe he a) is better than any white guy in history and b) also defy history as the only guy in like 40 years to even really attempt to medal in the 10k and marathon at the same Olympics. I'm sorry but I don't think the training goes well together.
When you multiple two very unlikely things together you get a "sorry not going to happen."