Karma Police wrote:
That is just too funny. You've called yourself "grammer", right? If you're going to have a go at someone for their grammAr, at least spell your name correctly.
I did that on purpose, to make an example of you.
Karma Police wrote:
That is just too funny. You've called yourself "grammer", right? If you're going to have a go at someone for their grammAr, at least spell your name correctly.
I did that on purpose, to make an example of you.
Grammer wrote:
Karma Police wrote:That is just too funny. You've called yourself "grammer", right? If you're going to have a go at someone for their grammAr, at least spell your name correctly.
I did that on purpose, to make an example of you.
Riiiiiight. Sure you did.
You were great in Frasier.
Asbel ran a 3'29.3 in windy birmingham with drafting to just over 1k
no wind & drafted to the bell he couda run 3'27-mid in a perfect split race
he's in better shape now as wouda been in training at that time for his trials
if he chases clock & gets decent splits to bell + drafting, he shoud be looking at worst for another 3'26+ at worst
calculo wrote:
Asbel ran a 3'29.3 in windy birmingham with drafting to just over 1k
no wind & drafted to the bell he couda run 3'27-mid in a perfect split race
he's in better shape now as wouda been in training at that time for his trials
if he chases clock & gets decent splits to bell + drafting, he shoud be looking at worst for another 3'26+ at worst
How likely that Kiprop has 3:23.X potential?
Ridiculously thin build. They say Tadesse was most efficient runner out there because of slim calves? Kiprop must be another 3 standard deviations better.
calculo wrote:
there was never a 3'23+ in Asbel's future
however, there definitely wouda been a 3'24-mid/high in him if he had a western set-up with a weights coach/nutritionist to put some semblance of meat onto those stick-bones
his limit with current training is probably 3'25-mid but he won't want to run that fast prior to rio in case it wrecks him but maybe he feels he coud recover in the few weeks if he did attempt such a chase
key is whether he gets to bell evenly & drafted in 2'31 or 2'33
if former, he will go for 3'25
if latter he will settle for 3'27/3'28
if he gets a 2'32, he will waver in decision whether to go for it or not which will cost him valuable time & he'll end up probably at 3'27/3'28 again
What are his chances in the 5000m for future championships?
Inherent 5000m estimate? 3000m WR plausibility?
he trains for 1500
no way off 1500 training & more a 1500/800 type that he breaks 7'30 or 13'00 off his current 1500 training
if he gave up the 1500 & trained for 3k/5k he coud get down to 7'25/12'50 but that woudn't beat a peak mo at those, albeit mo now may be past his peak
Star wrote:
jjjjjjj wrote:In recent years, there have been very few fast races after champs and Olympics, so if not before Rio, probably not after.
Centro had a nice PR of 3:31 high after the 2012 Olympics
And historically there are good races like Rieti and Brussels after champions (not last year, though)
4 of the last years Centro did his season best in Monaco. The exception being the post Olympic PR in 2012.
I totally agree with him staying home right now.
He doesn't need a fast time and hitting 3:34 flat right now was nice.
The Kenyans chase money.
You're trying too hard to defend your stupidity.
Centro has had rough outings after long flights to Europe, first race out.
Give it up.
Still nothing about why Willis not running. He stated that this race was part of his plan so hope not injured.
Deanouk wrote:
Devil Dog wrote:With all the doping scandals going on, the dopers will be laying low. Not running anything suspicious. The winning time will be 3:33. I will be back on Friday when I'm proven right to revive this thread and have an honest discussion about the reality of doping.
I think you're probably right, but I'm going to say 3:31.
Deano, you've written some of most insightful middle distance analysis of anyone on here, how can you predict Kiprop runs 3:31? Have you watched him race this year?!
calculo wrote:
he trains for 1500
no way off 1500 training & more a 1500/800 type that he breaks 7'30 or 13'00 off his current 1500 training
if he gave up the 1500 & trained for 3k/5k he coud get down to 7'25/12'50 but that woudn't beat a peak mo at those, albeit mo now may be past his peak
Obviously he doesn't run
I looked at the list of sub 3:30 1500m times. I am not sure that there are any in the past ten years or so after champs or Olympics. There may be several from a Monaco held in August, and pretty much all the rest are from July or earlier.
As for the claim that there are only 4 Kenyans under 3:30 ever, that's far off the mark. I count 13 Kenyans sub 3:30 and a 14th (Timothy Kiptanui) just off at 3:30.04.
Lagat (3:26.34)
Kiprop (3:26.69)
Kiplagat (3:27.64?)
Ngeny (3:28.12)
Kwemoi
Kipchirchir Komen
Komen
Chirchir
Ndiku
Choge
Chepseba
and a few others
Almost all of them from this era.
Monaco 1500m winning times since 1990:
12.08.1990 3:56,75 John Ngugi (Mile)
03.08.1991 3:32,04 Noureddine Morceli
11.08.1992 3:32,75 Noureddine Morceli
07.08.1993 3:35,81 Jonah Birir
02.08.1994 3:32,94 Venuste Niyongabo
27.07.1995 3:27,52 Noureddine Morceli
10.08.1996 3:32,17 Stephen Kipkorir
16.08.1997 3:29,46 Daniel Komen
08.08.1998 3:28,38 Hicham El Guerrouj
04.08.1999 3:29,79 Noah Ngeny
18.08.2000 3:31,02 William Chirchir
20.07.2001 3:30,36 Rui Silva
19.07.2002 3:27,34 Hicham El Guerrouj
14.09.2003 3:40,09 Paul Korir (World Athletics Final)
19.09.2004 3:44,92 Ivan Heshko (World Athletics Final)
10.09.2005 3:33,50 Ivan Heshko (World Athletics Final)
20.08.2006 3:32,08 Alex Kipchirchir
25.07.2007 3:32,28 Belal Ali Mansoor
29.07.2008 3:31,49 Daniel K. Komen
28.07.2009 3:30,96 Mehdi Baala
22.07.2010 3:29,27 Silas Kiplagat
22.07.2011 3:30,47 Silas Kiplagat
20.07.2012 3:28,88 Asbel Kiprop
19.07.2013 3:27,72 Asbel Kiprop
18.07.2014 3:27,64 Silas Kiplagat
17.07.2015 3:26,69 Asbel Kiprop
So, there have been super-times in Monaco also before 2012. But it should be noted that in
- 1995 Morceli shortly before has set the WR in Nice
- 1997 Daniel Komen was on a unique level
- 1998 El Guerrouj has set the still standing WR
- 1999 Ngeny has run 3:43,40 in the Mile
- 2002 El Guerrouj has had 2 better times
Since 2010 there have been 26 times under 3:30, 20 of them from Monaco. The best non-Monaco time in that period is 3:29,18.
And here all the runners who have 1500m run under 3:30 since 2010 with their Monaco PB and their other PB outside of Monaco:
Asbel Kiprop
3:26,69 3:29,18
Silas Kiplagat
3:27,64 3:29,63
Taoufik Makhloufi
3:28,75 3:30,40
Abdelaati Iguider
3:28,79 3:31,51
Mo Farah
3:28,81 3:34,66
Ronald Kwemoi
3:28,81 3:30,43
Caleb Ndiku
3:29,50 3:32,02
Nick Willis
3:29,66 3:32,17
Amine Laalou
3:29,53 3:31,56
Ayanleh Souleiman
3:29,58 3:30,16
Elijah Manangoi
3:29,67 3:33,67
Nixon Chepseba
3:29,77 3:29,90
Aman Woto
3:29,91 3:30,86
(Farah has not run 1500m outside of Monaco since 2013).
How long is that track? Or do the athletes know that in Monaco (residence of the IAAF) positive tests will disappear? Really, what's the reason for those anomalies.
Just because Kiprop always goes with the pacemaker? No, that's not enough of an explanation.
Why no Willis wrote:
Still nothing about why Willis not running. He stated that this race was part of his plan so hope not injured.
Did he say it was part of the plan? I'm pretty sure he wanted to try a different strategy this year - not peaking for a blazing time in Monaco, but focusing on the Olympics instead. Even just after the world championships last year, he was talking about going back to the drawing board as far as timing his fitness right to get through the rounds and have the necessary combo of strength and speed for the final.
Kiprop's agent is a doctor who has been quoted in the media with in-depth knowledge of doping in professional cycling.
He picked up coaching/management african distance runners late in life after his medical training and became one of the top coaches in the world.
Kiprop has also shown great morals in the past:
http://www.runnersworld.com/newswire/world-1500-meter-champ-asbel-kiprop-accused-of-assault
I am always surprised how many are willing to overlook Kiprop's issues and just say he is a 'genetic freak'.
The Champ wrote:
Kiprop's agent is a doctor who has been quoted in the media with in-depth knowledge of doping in professional cycling.
He picked up coaching/management african distance runners late in life after his medical training and became one of the top coaches in the world.
Kiprop has also shown great morals in the past:
http://www.runnersworld.com/newswire/world-1500-meter-champ-asbel-kiprop-accused-of-assaultI am always surprised how many are willing to overlook Kiprop's issues and just say he is a 'genetic freak'.
I agree. I have never been a fan of Kiprop and don't know why anyone is.
I predict Farah doesn't break 3:31. Just doesn't seem to have the same speed this year.
No WR for Kiprop. He's been dominant, yes, but he's another one who hasn't looked as good as he did last year
tfw wrote:
Makhloufi is the clean world record holder
HAHAHAHA that's such a joke. he is doped out of his eyeballs. hes more juiced than anyone in t&f
lrclowend wrote:
I predict Farah doesn't break 3:31. Just doesn't seem to have the same speed this year.
No WR for Kiprop. He's been dominant, yes, but he's another one who hasn't looked as good as he did last year
He's won every race with ease and his workouts are apparently the best he's ever done.
Nothing to say Kiprop doesn't look as good this year.
We haven't seen a massive finish from Farah, but he wouldn't be running if he wasn't in shape would he?
Swt wrote:
but he wouldn't be running if he wasn't in shape would he?
Lots of elite runners run races when not in top shape. Did you not see all of those devastated pros run at the trials?