Truth
It's a lot harder to predict who will actually make the team than who will not. Other than the obvious choice of Rupp, who only a total fool like Stick with eHarmony guaranteed would not make the team, the odds of any one runner not making the team in the 10000 was greater than them making it.
Considering that True made the US team in both 5 and 10K for last year's world championship team, anyone who "guarantees" he has no chance of making the Olympics this year is a fool. Yeah True could be shut out of the Rio team but no one who actually knows what they are talking about would say he has no shot.
Same thing as if a random message board poster would have said before the NBA season that Golden State had "no chance!" to win the title. That's just an ignorant opinion. The fact that Golden State did not actually win the title doesn't make the opinion any less uninformed.