A lot of people are underestimating Mead
3:37 to win Oxy, 7:38 indoors, and top American this year at 13:04, he could beat True
If it's truly 27:45 pace and that's going into the last lap, I highly doubt Lagat hangs on, he'll kick w/ 200m to go, but will run out of real estate
Lagat would need the pace to be 28:15 and certain people in the race (Estrada, Rupp) aren't going to let that happen for very long
If Rupp makes a mid race surge and makes it a 27:20's race, I say Rupp, Mead, True, Lagat
If it's left up to the last lap at 27:45 pace, I say Rupp, True, Mead, Lagat
If it's left up to the last lap at 28:15 pace (unlikely) I say Rupp, True, Lagat, Mead
Mead can time trial a 10k faster than True, and True slightly faster than Lagat, but I'll always pick True if he's w/ Mead at 200m to go
This is why True elected not to be on the 10k team last year, A) it was before the 5k B) he can't hang w/ the Ethipians, Kenyan's, Mo and Rupp at Worlds/Olympics becasue the pace will be at least sub-27:15 throughout the race
Good decision on his part, he ended up 6th at World's last year in the 5k