Berian or Brazier? Oly trials 800

The rounds will likely be faster than the final. Everyone knows Brazier is incredibly strong and likely will not attempt to break him by running 49-50.5 seconds the first 400m. If it goes slow positioning and timing is everything, experience is everything. If Symmonds were in shape he would be my pick to win it, but Berian seems to be way better than last year. He'll take it, Sowinski will be second, Brazier 3rd (assuming juniors goes well), and Murphy will be 4th.

1:44.2 wrote:

Berian goes out fast. Brazier not so fast. Berian stays strong. Brazier closes the gap but not strong enough. You're wlecome.

Both go to Rio. Placement is not so critical. Brazier should hold back some because his season has been long already. Save it for Rio.

The podium----Berian, Brazier and Sowinski in alphabetical not finish order

This is the million dollar question of the trials. I don't think any other event is nearly as up in the air as the men's 800. We have...

Berian: World Champ, Pre winner, 1:43 in the last 12 months

Brazier: 1:43, NCAA Champ, nothing but upside

Sowinski: World Indoor Medallist, solid season so far.

Symmonds: Most decorated 800 runner in the country. Supposedly peaks at the right time.

Solomon: Probably not going to Rio, but a total wildcard, could change the whole race.

Murphy: Went to worlds last year, beat Berian, NCAA Champion several times.Clearly scared to run 800 though.

If you want my opinion, it is that Berian on paper is the winner. If he gets to the final and runs like he did at Pre, just barely holding the lead and controlling the race, he will win. Brazier blew by the leader at NCAAs, but that guy had a PR a second slower than Berian has. He was redlining, Berian may not be. I am totally discounting Symmonds. He is still injured according to his insta, and not in form. Sorry. Solomon, Sowinkski, Murphy, (Shaquille Walker?) all have a shot. I will say that it is Murphy with a big * there because I really really want Sowinski to make the team, but I see the order being.

Berian

Brazier

Murphy

With Brazier possibly edging Berian. All assuming Berian and Brazier don't screw up and not get into the final, both being amateurs in that sense.

I think Boris learned his lesson last year about how to run rounds, and he has shown huge progress over the last year in his race tactics (world indoors, pre). I feel like Brazier is in a similar position to 2015 Berian in that he comes into the trials with a 1:43 PR but may not be able to handle the rounds due to lack of experience. That being said Brazier seems to possess an inordinate amount of strength despite his alleged 30 MPW, and could definitely surprise, just like at NCAAs. Berian is still a tremendous talent and probably in 1:42 shape, so I still think he will come on top.

I predict Brazier is either 2nd or not in the final. 3rd could go a multitude of ways- I'm thinking Murphy is going to come up clutch with his strength to slip into 3rd.

I honestly don\'t think Brazier is a lock-at all. Everyone\'s justifiably excited about the 1:43.5,but it was ONE performance, which he was exquisitely peaked for.

He\'s not used to rounds. His second fastest performance ever is only 1:45. He\'s already had a long NCAA season with several ups and downs. He hasn\'t even consistently beat NCAA completion-he lost his conference and regional meets. He wasn\'t even planning on running the trials until, what, 2 weeks ago?

He has as good a shot as anybody, but there are a lot of variables here, and the people saying he\'s a 100% lock haven\'t thought this through. Remember when he was supposed to dominate NCAA indoors? Didn\'t quite work out that way.

*completion - competion

Maybe not wrote:

I honestly don't think Brazier is a lock-at all. Everyone's justifiably excited about the 1:43.5,but it was ONE performance, which he was exquisitely peaked for.

He's not used to rounds. His second fastest performance ever is only 1:45. He's already had a long NCAA season with several ups and downs. He hasn't even consistently beat NCAA completion-he lost his conference and regional meets. He wasn't even planning on running the trials until, what, 2 weeks ago?

He has as good a shot as anybody, but there are a lot of variables here, and the people saying he's a 100% lock haven't thought this through. Remember when he was supposed to dominate NCAA indoors? Didn't quite work out that way.

nwpow wrote:

The rounds will likely be faster than the final. Everyone knows Brazier is incredibly strong and likely will not attempt to break him by running 49-50.5 seconds the first 400m. If it goes slow positioning and timing is everything, experience is everything. If Symmonds were in shape he would be my pick to win it, but Berian seems to be way better than last year. He'll take it, Sowinski will be second, Brazier 3rd (assuming juniors goes well), and Murphy will be 4th.

Sowinski beats Murphy? I don't think so. Of course, Murphy hasn't been racing any 800s but I'm very bullish on him. Very.

1:44.2 wrote:

Berian goes out fast. Brazier not so fast. Berian stays strong. Brazier closes the gap but not strong enough. You're wlecome.

Sounds about right. But 1:44.2 is too fast. I say low 1:45.

The one with "bear" in his name will win

None of the above. The winner will come from the "field" mark my words.

Berisn can be a head case at times. I don't hiw the suit will affect him.could have no impact but it's clear the stress was getting to him.

Why the hell are people always bringing up Sowinski as a contender? The guy is a 1:45-1:46 runner who rarely can dip below 1:45. His indoor 800 WC medal is somewhat of a joke considering the field was less impressive than any DL race. There are a dozen guys or more with his credentials in the US right now.

The dude probably wouldn't have gotten top 3 in the NCAA 800 this year for god's sake.

1:44.2 wrote:

Berian goes out fast. Brazier not so fast. Berian stays strong. Brazier closes the gap but not strong enough. You're wlecome.

Berian is better this year, may still have problems with rounds. Brazier is awesome, but it's possible the rounds may get to him. Symmonds? He looked like he was out of it last year then ran his yearly best in each successive round. Don't count Solomon out either. Murphy? We don't know how much better he is this year at 800 because he hasn't run in a fast race, but he did handle Berian without much trouble earlier this season.

The team; Solomon and Symmonds, then Berian, Brazier, and Murphy fight it out for third.

Then it's likely of the old guard, Solomon or Symmonds will get blown out and Berian, Murphy, Brazier and maybe "Shaq" will slug it out for the remaining two spots.

Semenya will take them all out

I think Brazier makes the team as the #3 qualifier. The rounds will be hard on him with his low volume, low experience background. He is the man of the future, though.

Porkroll777 wrote:

Why the hell are people always bringing up Sowinski as a contender? The guy is a 1:45-1:46 runner who rarely can dip below 1:45. His indoor 800 WC medal is somewhat of a joke considering the field was less impressive than any DL race. There are a dozen guys or more with his credentials in the US right now.

The dude probably wouldn't have gotten top 3 in the NCAA 800 this year for god's sake.

Agree 100%. Symmonds is out (would be surprised if he made the final), Sowinksi nowhere close to top 3, and all of the OTC guys won't make the final. Top 3 is going to be Berian, Brazier, and either Solomon or Murphy.

All of that said, this has been an incredibly disappointing and at times frustrating year as an American track fan, as many of our professional runners have yet to run times that would be competitive in the current collegiate ranks. I'm afraid for an appallingly embarrassing showing for Team USA at Rio at this point.

I agree with this pretty much, it's been a pretty down year for the U.S.

That being said Symmonds worries about to much other than running and it's affected him injury or not, I think Brazier I'll be fine through the rounds the question will be if they take a toll on him I still think he could be top 3 though, and we'll have to see how Murphy does coming back down in distance that'll be interesting. But I feel like if Solomon is in shape it'll be Borris, Solomon, Brazier, Muphy. Really depends on how they do through the rounds, this definitely favors the more experienced runners imo who are used to the extra round.

I think Berian, Brazier, and Murphy make the team and could be pretty clear of the fourth-place finisher, who could be Loxsom or Sowinski. My guess is Murphy wins.