Fast Trials wrote:
800. wrote:What if he doesn't hit it in the final? The finals are sit and kick races 99.9% of the time resulting in very slow times. So even if he wins the race, he doesn't go to the Games.
Not really, there are always guys trying to hit the standard in the trials making it a fast race. Winning time last trials was 3:35.
The Trials record is 3:35 (low) by Steve Scott from a million years ago. There is a reason why it has stood so many years...
Even at 3:35 (high) at the Trials in 2012, finals aren't run with running a fast time in mind. That year they came thru the 800 at a pedestrian pace and ran a blistering last 700. So yes, the winner ran under the standard (barely) but do you want to risk just missing it again? Is that a risk worth taking?
Look what happened last night. Perfect weather. No wind. A rabbit hitting the splits for him. All Clayton had to do was follow. No, no one pushed him in the last 200 but he admitted he was all out up that home stretch. He did have competition the first 1200 meters....the rabbit.
At Hayward Field the wind it notoriously strong on the backstretch. If he wants a fast pace, he'll more than likely have to set it and break the wind for the rest of the field and that is not his MO.
If he sits, as is his MO, he'll have to pray to Jesus Christ in heaven that the 2nd half of the race is fast enough to produce close to an All-Time Olympic Trials record. Unlikely.
And even if all the unlikely scenarios happen, he still needs to place in the top 3. And top 3 isn't a guarantee. There are other quality milers in the U.S. you know. Centro, Andrews, Blankenship and some others that are quietly having really good "under the radar" years as well as guys you simply can't count out like Leo.
If he's smart, he goes 800. For God's sake he can run a 400 as fast as any of the 800 guys but is significantly stronger. He has the A standard and international experience. He may be a 1:43 guy. That is much more competitive on the World scene than a 3:36 and remember he was gunning for a time at 3:36. Could he go significantly faster? Probably some day but right now? Not enough to get to a 1:43 level.