...
- [myth]He has a normal improvement curve
Then lets talk about improvement curves. We know that gold medalists live on the edge of bell curves. Most Junior World beaters are there because they are insanely talented, but also because they're more mature than the rest. The result is that their career isn't as long. American Milers Jim Ryun to Alan Webb are example of great juniors who still had typical career paths; those paths just started several years earlier than normal.
Want to talk sprinters? Lets talk about Obea Moore: 16 year old runs 45.15 400m and never goes faster. J-Mee Samuels runs 10.08 in high school and only 10.03 3 years later. Their career fits a normal curve, just that it started at a younger age.
The case of diminishing returns is typical. (and if you regularly see proportional improvements from 19.75 to 19.19, then you must be witnessing some incredible coaching). Even more than that though, is the "double peak". The familiar case is the 30-35+ year old who is on the end of their career and turns to doping instead of face the realities of life after. But for an athlete who just moved the whole curve ahead a few years? A double peak shouldn't happen.
A junior phenom is, by definition, beyond the curve. Applying the same averages and expectations for the general population can't work with the athletes never started on that curve to begin with.
Here is his 200m progression, the only event he ran throughout his career.
2015 19.55 -0.1 Beijing (National Stadium) 27 AUG
2013 19.66 0.0 Moskva (Luzhniki) 17 AUG
2012 19.32 +0.4 London (Olympic Stadium) 09 AUG
2011 19.40 +0.8 Daegu 03 SEP
2010 19.56 -0.8 Kingston (NS), JAM 01 MAY
2009 19.19 -0.3 Berlin (Olympiastadion) 20 AUG
2008 19.30 -0.9 Beijing (National Stadium) 20 AUG
2007 19.75 +0.2 Kingston (NS), JAM 24 JUN
2006 19.88 +0.4 Lausanne 11 JUL
2005 19.99 +1.8 London (CP) 22 JUL
2004 19.93 +1.4 Devonshire 11 APR
2003 20.13 0.0 Bridgetown, BAR 20 JUL
2002 20.58 +1.4 Kingston, JAM 18 JUL
2001 21.73 +0.6 Debrecen 14 JUL
(Full graph available here:
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/j...rogression)
Started working with Glen mills in 2005
I see a career in three phases: Pre-Mills (2004 and earlier), 400m/200m in 2005-2007, and 100m/200m 2008- on.
I see an athlete who started their improvement curve early, and got their peak years around 18-22. I see one who then got frustrated that he wasn't living up to the hype and expectation to keep progressing, and with some insane intervention, arrived on the world scene in a wholly new way.