Raise the white flag: Kenya won't force marathoners to traing together - Rupp should do the 10k in Rio!

Lotta gills in that photo...

El Keniano wrote:

Good move. Here's the picture from the strategic meeting.

https://twitter.com/athletics_kenya/status/732188314124603392

Rupp has been the best performing American in warm conditions, across the board. I think a medal is in the offing.

A "huge track record on the roads" is not a prerequisite for marathon success, as Frank Shorter could tell you.

Unlike Hall, Rupp is not a nut job, and has proven that he can hang in hard races even when not at his best -- go watch the last WC 10000m again. You may not think highly of his chances, but I guarantee that the east africans will be taking him most seriously.

He's got an excellent chance, IMO. The top countries can only send three athletes. That's the key. In the marathon, anything can happen. As opposed to the 10,000m, which rarely has surprises. I can't believe they didn't pick Kipsang...

While I agree that Rupp has a better chance to medal in the marathon (especially since he'll be training for both events and likely won't have the kick he needs for the 10k), I think the main reason for him having a decent chance is that so many people seem to have bad days in Olympic marathons (while I'm confident he'll at least have a good race). I'd say he has a better chance to medal in the marathon, but a better chance to finish top 5 in the 10k.

Kipchoge and Biwott just ran 7-8 minutes faster than Rupp has ever run. Rupp's fastest mile in his marathon was 4:47, while their slowest was ~4:50 (their fastest was around 4:30). If Rupp had recovered well and ran a good indoor 3k, I'd be more bullish on his marathon ranking and his potential. But as it stands, I'd rank him behind all of the 2:07.00 guys that'll be in Rio...

Meaningless, Meaningless wrote:

Which 11 runners of any nationality who will race in the Olympic marathon are better than Rupp?

With a limit of 3 per country he's currently ranked 41st among people who have qualified for Rio:

He ran to win in tough conditions and could very likely do better, but there are more than enough more experienced people ahead of him that something like 12th could happen.

Does anyone doubt that Alberto and the NOP will have their pet project, their baby, their Frankenstein ready for the marathon? Weather conditions, terrain, strategy, gear, allergy conditions, drugs, shoes... Galen will be the most prepared person in the race because he has the best camp. He may not have the most marathon experience but his coach does and that's all he'll need. They'll have him as ready as can be for this caliber of race.

I see the marathon breaking into two groups at mile 12 or so. Two to three guys follow Kipchoge and the chase pack with Galen in it. Galen sticks to a race plan and holds back until the last 10k. Mentally, he'll be ready to cruise the first 20 or so miles and then go back to what he knows 10k racing. High temps beat everyone up except Kipchoge. Galen secures silver or bronze in the last mile or so.