Historically America's best hope for medals was the fact that Athletics Kenya always took the top athletes away from their normal training camps and made them train together. Well today AK said they won't do that - at least for the marathon.
You can kiss Rupp's medal chances away in my mind. He'd better do the 10k.
http://www.nation.co.ke/sports/athletics/Marathoners-to-train-separately-for-Olympics/-/1100/3206390/-/cj21fuz/-/index.html?
Raise the white flag: Kenya won't force marathoners to traing together - Rupp should do the 10k in Rio!
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Good move. Here's the picture from the strategic meeting.
https://twitter.com/athletics_kenya/status/732188314124603392 -
The goal shouldnt be to get the easiest medal. The goal should be to beat the best competition.
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Eliud Kipchoge has to be the favorite, Rupp can beat anybody else, I look for Rupp to medal and he could win if Kipchoge has a sub par day, note all of Kipchoge's marathons have been time trials so far, also of note the last time Rupp raced Kipchoge was in a 10000 meter race on the track and Rupp finished ahead of Kipchoge by about a second meaning he out kicked him, I know a marathon is a different race altogether, still.
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Looked it up that 10000 Rupp got 3rd in 26:48 with Kipchoge in 5th in 26:53 so he did NOT outkick him, he was too far ahead for the kick to matter, on another note they have raced 8 times with Kipchoge having a 6-2 lead so far.
Kipchoge is favored, but Rupp is the very rare runner who is close to the caliber of Kipchoge now that K. Bekele still running great by most standards seems to have slipped a little. -
douglas burke wrote:
Eliud Kipchoge has to be the favorite, Rupp can beat anybody else, I look for Rupp to medal and he could win if Kipchoge has a sub par day, note all of Kipchoge's marathons have been time trials so far, also of note the last time Rupp raced Kipchoge was in a 10000 meter race on the track and Rupp finished ahead of Kipchoge by about a second meaning he out kicked him, I know a marathon is a different race altogether, still.
No, Rupp cannot beat anybody else. If we use your logic then Mo Farah would have easily won London marathon. But he didn't, did he. Because marathon is not the same as 10.000 on the track. -
oskdjj wrote:
The goal shouldnt be to get the easiest medal. The goal should be to beat the best competition.
This is idiotic. Shouldn't the goal be to do the event(s) that the athlete is best at? That would generally be the event they is easiest for the athlete to medal in - since the athlete would be the best at it. Or you think it's better for athletes to do the events they aren't so good at, struggle with, so we can see them put in a tremendous effort to come in 12th? That's the spirit of competition, to only do events where you are likely to have the hardest chance to win? -
Which 11 Kenyans who are better marathoners than Rupp will race in the Olympic marathon?
Which 11 runners of any nationality who will race in the Olympic marathon are better than Rupp?
Please offer definitive proof that Rupp is currently better at 10,000m than the marathon.
Meaningless much? wrote:
oskdjj wrote:
The goal shouldnt be to get the easiest medal. The goal should be to beat the best competition.
This is idiotic. Shouldn't the goal be to do the event(s) that the athlete is best at? That would generally be the event they is easiest for the athlete to medal in - since the athlete would be the best at it. Or you think it's better for athletes to do the events they aren't so good at, struggle with, so we can see them put in a tremendous effort to come in 12th? That's the spirit of competition, to only do events where you are likely to have the hardest chance to win? -
Did I say Rupp shouldn't run the marathon? I was commenting on the stupidity of that guys statement. He thinks Rupp should only run an event if he'll have a hard time doing well. If you think Rupp can win, spparently he should switch to an event he'd struggle to win at. That's the goal.
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Kiplipp wrote:
douglas burke wrote:
Eliud Kipchoge has to be the favorite, Rupp can beat anybody else, I look for Rupp to medal and he could win if Kipchoge has a sub par day, note all of Kipchoge's marathons have been time trials so far, also of note the last time Rupp raced Kipchoge was in a 10000 meter race on the track and Rupp finished ahead of Kipchoge by about a second meaning he out kicked him, I know a marathon is a different race altogether, still.
No, Rupp cannot beat anybody else. If we use your logic then Mo Farah would have easily won London marathon. But he didn't, did he. Because marathon is not the same as 10.000 on the track.
No, your logic is horrible. This was what we assumed before rupp ran his first marathon. He has already succeeded and his debut is arguably far superior to mo's. No pacing, lots of turns, and the heat and rupp still negative split his. -
douglas burke wrote:
Eliud Kipchoge has to be the favorite, Rupp can beat anybody else, I look for Rupp to medal and he could win if Kipchoge has a sub par day, note all of Kipchoge's marathons have been time trials so far, also of note the last time Rupp raced Kipchoge was in a 10000 meter race on the track and Rupp finished ahead of Kipchoge by about a second meaning he out kicked him, I know a marathon is a different race altogether, still.
I hope Rupp focuses on the marathon as that's more exciting for me - as a fan. It's the unknown. In the 10k, I know who he's not beating.
But looking at things objectively, can someone tell me why so many people think he's great at the marathon? Other than the "He looked great jogging a half marathon on youtube" argument. Yes Rupp looked good at Winning the US trials but the guy doesn't have a huge track record on the roads.
Ryan Hall never came close to gold. WHat indication do we have that Rupp is better than Hall at 26.2?
Rupp's medal chances went up simply because the Kenyans put Korir on the team. -
It'll be interesting to see Rupp show his form prior to the Olympics.
Don't count him out for a medal in either the 10K or the Marathon. Yeah the fields are strong, Rupp could run fantastic and still be out of the medals. Or he could medal in both.
I assume he'll be strong enough to run with the break in both races. I wonder how his speed will be for the 10K? Can he bring his 2012 kick to the race?
Based on past performance, it stands to reason that Rupp will be hungry for medals. We'll find out soon enough. -
Aside from his marathon time (only run one on a sh*tty day) he is better than Ryan Hall at every distance. That's the indication
(Ps. We all know Rupp could run faster than 59:43, so please don't make that argument)
rojo wrote:
douglas burke wrote:
Eliud Kipchoge has to be the favorite, Rupp can beat anybody else, I look for Rupp to medal and he could win if Kipchoge has a sub par day, note all of Kipchoge's marathons have been time trials so far, also of note the last time Rupp raced Kipchoge was in a 10000 meter race on the track and Rupp finished ahead of Kipchoge by about a second meaning he out kicked him, I know a marathon is a different race altogether, still.
I hope Rupp focuses on the marathon as that's more exciting for me - as a fan. It's the unknown. In the 10k, I know who he's not beating.
But looking at things objectively, can someone tell me why so many people think he's great at the marathon? Other than the "He looked great jogging a half marathon on youtube" argument. Yes Rupp looked good at Winning the US trials but the guy doesn't have a huge track record on the roads.
Ryan Hall never came close to gold. WHat indication do we have that Rupp is better than Hall at 26.2?
Rupp's medal chances went up simply because the Kenyans put Korir on the team. -
Rupp has very little experience on the roads. He could do well because he is disciplined. He might lay off a fast break and reel in people.
IT is unlikely that he can medal in the 10000 again. That is not to insult him. He ran a great race and had some good fortune that day. Just like most medalists. Usually there are more people ready to kick in a championship 10000. He could run a great race again and be 5-6th. -
So ...... wrote:
Rupp has very little experience on the roads. He could do well because he is disciplined. He might lay off a fast break and reel in people.
IT is unlikely that he can medal in the 10000 again. That is not to insult him. He ran a great race and had some good fortune that day. Just like most medalists. Usually there are more people ready to kick in a championship 10000. He could run a great race again and be 5-6th.
^this. And I agree with Rojo - I want him to run the marathon as I see it as I total crap shoot. A very good chance he could fall apart or otherwise get spanked, but there is this crazy chance (perhaps only hope) that he could pull of an amazing run... just seems like a bigger possible pay day for people watching if he's successful at the marathon over the 10,000. -
So ...... wrote:
Rupp has very little experience on the roads. He could do well because he is disciplined. He might lay off a fast break and reel in people.
IT is unlikely that he can medal in the 10000 again. That is not to insult him. He ran a great race and had some good fortune that day. Just like most medalists. Usually there are more people ready to kick in a championship 10000. He could run a great race again and be 5-6th.
I actually don't quite understand the knock that he has little experience on the roads. It's not like it's cross country. He's a smart and savvy racer. In the OT Marathon, he knew exactly which moves to cover and which to ignore. Very little doubt in my mind he will be prepared for the tactics in Rio.
Also, every indication right now points to this year's 10k being anything but a sit-and-kick race. Kam found out what worked vs Mo at the 13.1 WC. I fully expect this to be a barn burner from the start. As a result, the ability to "kick" will really be the ability to "hold on better" until people start dropping. -
I don't want to see Rupp or any other doping cheater in any race.
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rojo wrote:
douglas burke wrote:
Eliud Kipchoge has to be the favorite, Rupp can beat anybody else, I look for Rupp to medal and he could win if Kipchoge has a sub par day, note all of Kipchoge's marathons have been time trials so far, also of note the last time Rupp raced Kipchoge was in a 10000 meter race on the track and Rupp finished ahead of Kipchoge by about a second meaning he out kicked him, I know a marathon is a different race altogether, still.
I hope Rupp focuses on the marathon as that's more exciting for me - as a fan. It's the unknown. In the 10k, I know who he's not beating.
But looking at things objectively, can someone tell me why so many people think he's great at the marathon? Other than the "He looked great jogging a half marathon on youtube" argument. Yes Rupp looked good at Winning the US trials but the guy doesn't have a huge track record on the roads.
Ryan Hall never came close to gold. WHat indication do we have that Rupp is better than Hall at 26.2?
Rupp's medal chances went up simply because the Kenyans put Korir on the team.
1. 20 miles at 4:50 pace with 153 heart rate
2. He looked great jogging a full marathon in LA
3. If he equals Ryan Hall on his best day he can win an Olympic medal -
MetricMiler wrote:
The 20 miles at a 153 hr is meaningless unless we knew his max heartrate and also an substantiated rumor.
Alberto said it
MetricMiler wrote:
He was certainly not jogging the Olympic trials marathon. That was all he had on a warm day. He has good form, doesn't mean he wasn't working very hard in L.A..
It was easy, he won by a ton and finished fast. Doesn't happen in a marathon unless you have a lot of energy left.
MetricMiler wrote:
Ryan Hall's best day was with a tailwind at his back in cool conditions. The Rio Olympics will be warm.
Weather is irrelevant on one of Ryan Hall's best days. Ryan Hall in his lifetime best fitness could win an Olympic medal on the right day, therefore Galen does not need to be better than Hall to win a medal.
MetricMiler wrote:
Although Kamworor and Farah are clearly better than Rupp at 10,000 meters , they are the only ones for sure. The marathon brings far more uncertainty.
Then how did Galen finish 5th last year?
MetricMiler wrote:
Salazar will be careful in whether or not Rupp finishes the Olympic marathon. If not in medal contention late into the race dropping out would be smart. He could get a big payday at a fall marathon like NYC or Chicago.
He will finish the race barring injury.
MetricMiler wrote:
I am the Metric Miler and clearly know more than anyone else. So you should listen to me only on this matter.
LOL -
Jeez I thought this was settled already. If (big if - he is not the 2012 Rupp) he runs well, Rupp will make 6-8th in the 10K and 10-12th in the marathon. Let's move on.
