The LaShawn Merritt Conundrum

Merritt's chances at Rio gold all Extenze©.

Shannon Hays wrote:

Merritt's chances at Rio gold all Extenze©.

Should Merritt run the 200m or 400m?

TrackCoach wrote:

Shannon Hays wrote:

Merritt's chances at Rio gold all Extenze©.

Should Merritt run the 200m or 400m?

Both

Adding the 200 to the 400 will take a lot out of him. He should stick to one event in Rio. He may want to do only the 200 if he can get that 19.78 down a bit. Heck, even 19.78 is a shot at a medal. 19.78 likely not fast enough for the gold.

Bolt, Gatlin, Powell (well, if he could avoid the yips for a race twice as long--seems unlikely at the Olympics). Then there is DeGrasse, maybe Bromell, others? Merritt's more likely to medal in the 400m and I predict that he will win either gold or silver as usual.

Isn't the 400 finished before the 200 rounds start? The 400 would be finished on the 4th day - heats day 1, semis day 2, day 3 rest, day 4 final.

Just had a look and the 400 is on days 1, 2 and 3. Usually you get a day off between the semis and finals. 200 is on days 5, 6 and 7. Merritt could definitely do both. He gets a day off between the 400 final and the 300 1st round.

Men's 100 starts on day 2 which is a bit unusual. Finals day 3 evening. The 100 and 400 runners both get a day off if they want to double in the 200. Van Niekerk is another possibility of the 400 runners.

Incidentally women's 800 final is 45 mins before the women's 4x4. Bad luck if you've got a good 4x4 team and a quality 4-8 runner as part of it.

For Mo - the 10km is on day 2, 5km heat on day 6 and 5km final on day 9.

Also, some finals are being held in the morning in Rio, presumably at the request of European broadcasters. Mainly distance events - women's 10km, both marathons, both steeples, some throws, all walks I think, and men's 400 hurdles and triple.

Time zone looks like this

Rio - 10pm final

NY - 9pm

LA - 6pm

London - 2am

Tokyo - 10am

Easy to see why Europe isn't that happy.

For an 11am final by contrast

Rio 11am

NY - 10am

LA - 7am

London - 3pm

Tokyo - 11pm

100s are always early in the meet.

He won a silver last year. He's already run 44.2x this season. Huge PR in the 200. Probably going for the WR by seasons end.

He won't medal in the 200. Bolt Blake Gatlin Gay Bromell De Grasse Webb etc.

Shannon Hays wrote:

Merritt's chances at Rio gold all Extenze©.

Haha yeah, like a black guy ever needed to use that stuff.

old coach man wrote:

100s are always early in the meet.

Yes - I meant unusual as they usually start on day 1, not day 2.

Regarding the 200: No one is beating Bolt; Powell is not medalling. I could see Merritt getting silver, and would bet on him being top 3. But the 200 has way less prestige and he is very much a 400 runner.

Regarding the 400: I don't see Makwala medalling--the top three are running out of their minds already (Van Niekerk has two sub-10 100s, Merritt's 19.78, James's 44.08). And Merritt is the most consistent of the three, no way he doesn't medal, and when have we seen him get worse than silver? The other two have higher ceilings, but Merritt is a global finals machine.

kimani wrote:

Regarding the 200: No one is beating Bolt; Powell is not medalling. I could see Merritt getting silver, and would bet on him being top 3. But the 200 has way less prestige and he is very much a 400 runner.

Regarding the 400: I don't see Makwala medalling--the top three are running out of their minds already (Van Niekerk has two sub-10 100s, Merritt's 19.78, James's 44.08). And Merritt is the most consistent of the three, no way he doesn't medal, and when have we seen him get worse than silver? The other two have higher ceilings, but Merritt is a global finals machine.

"[N]o way he doesn't medal" you wrote. Well, he didn't medal at 400m in the 2012 Olympic Games in London - he didn't even qualify for the final due to injury, apparently.

Yowl wrote:

kimani wrote:

Regarding the 200: No one is beating Bolt; Powell is not medalling. I could see Merritt getting silver, and would bet on him being top 3. But the 200 has way less prestige and he is very much a 400 runner.

Regarding the 400: I don't see Makwala medalling--the top three are running out of their minds already (Van Niekerk has two sub-10 100s, Merritt's 19.78, James's 44.08). And Merritt is the most consistent of the three, no way he doesn't medal, and when have we seen him get worse than silver? The other two have higher ceilings, but Merritt is a global finals machine.

"[N]o way he doesn't medal" you wrote. Well, he didn't medal at 400m in the 2012 Olympic Games in London - he didn't even qualify for the final due to injury, apparently.

1. LaShawn ran maybe 120m in his prelim and stepped off and said he knew he probably wouldn't finish but it was the olympics so he had to try

2. when healthy he is a machine in the finals, hence the twitter name Machine Merritt

3. You're an idiot.

I think everyone is missing the point, Merritt ran 19.78 in mid-April; that has got to be one of the fastest 200s ever run this early in the season. Usually you don't see any sub-20s until June. 19.78 is super fast any time of the year. Merritt is probably on the top-10 list for U.S. 200m sprinters. The top 200m times in the world nowadays are in the 19.6x to 19.7x range, with an occasional 19.5x and only Bolt and Gatlin are capable of running 19.5x. If Merritt is running 19.78 in April, I assume he will be in 19.5x shape come July/August. 19.5x is a gold medal contender, in fact Merritt can probably medal in Rio if he runs no faster than 19.78. Bolt has been on the decline for several years now and I seriously doubt Bolt or Gatlin will run faster this year than they did last year. And, all of the other athletes De Grasse, Bromell, Webb and Blake, etc., I just don't see them running 19.5x this year.

From a scheduling stand point, it is definitely doable, the schedule for Rio is the same as it was in 1996 when Michael Johnson did his double. For my money, I see Merritt's chances in the 200 about equal to his chances in the 400. At the very least, Merritt has to enter himself in the 200 in case things don't workout in the 400.

I like what you're saying; Merritt's chances at the 200 are pretty pretty pretty pretty good and Merritt's chances at the 400 are pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty good too. So he's pretty pretty pretty pretty fast. This is a pretty good thread.

Although that 200 is an eye-opener for his speed - he should stick to the 400 MAINLY for the reason the US will need him for what looks like will be a very competitive 4X4. Also, I predict a high school 400 meter runner will make the men's US 4X4 relay team.

TrackCoach wrote:

If Merritt is running 19.78 in April, I assume he will be in 19.5x shape come July/August.

That's a pretty big assumption. I'd bet a lot of money that Merritt will never run 19.5x.

asdfgh wrote:

TrackCoach wrote:

If Merritt is running 19.78 in April, I assume he will be in 19.5x shape come July/August.

That's a pretty big assumption. I'd bet a lot of money that Merritt will never run 19.5x.

I agree, I find it difficult to see Merritt running 19.5x as well, but then again, I find it difficult to see how Merritt ran 19.78 with relatively slow 100m sprint speed and this early. I am just assuming he was no where near top shape when he ran 19.78. World class sprinters are just coming off of conditioning training in early April, no block starts or acceleration drills. In global championship years, they usually train through April meets and don't anticipate running fast until the first DL meet or Pre. Btw, Merritt doesn't have to get much faster to medal in Rio.

Should only do 1 event at Rio wrote:

Adding the 200 to the 400 will take a lot out of him. He should stick to one event in Rio. He may want to do only the 200 if he can get that 19.78 down a bit. Heck, even 19.78 is a shot at a medal. 19.78 likely not fast enough for the gold.

Don't rule out another Jamaican for a possible 19.5-.6 and Tyson Gay still has a 19.7 in him.

19.78 would be lucky to get 4th in Rio

yowl is silly wrote:

Yowl wrote:

"[N]o way he doesn't medal" you wrote. Well, he didn't medal at 400m in the 2012 Olympic Games in London - he didn't even qualify for the final due to injury, apparently.

1. LaShawn ran maybe 120m in his prelim and stepped off and said he knew he probably wouldn't finish but it was the olympics so he had to try

2. when healthy he is a machine in the finals, hence the twitter name Machine Merritt

3. You're an idiot.

A), I think Merritt's chances are very high for a medal, but didn't most people feel that way three months before the 2012 Olympic Games?

B). My point was that he might not show up healthy, might become injured, or something else might hinder him. You perhaps acknowledge that possibility in your point 2 regarding injury, yet you criticize me for that very point. You've argued poorly. I'm not an idiot. Urine idiot.