Kenya Names Olympic Marathon Team (For Real): Kipchoge, Biwott, W. Korir (M) + Kiprop, Sumgong + Jepkesho (W)

The real scandal is the selection of Visiline Jepkesho.

Comparing her with Florence Kiplagat is not possible.

Florence has 7 times better than the PB of Visiline, all achieved in Marathon Majors. She won two World Championships (one in Cross Country, one in Half Marathon). She bettered 5 World Records, and currently is the WR holder of 15 km, 20 km and Half Marathon. She is the National Record Holder of 10000m on track. She won 3 Majors, She ran faster than Visiline this year of more than 2 minutes. She was only at 70% of shape in London because was injured for 3 months after Chicago, only starting training at the beginning of January.

Visiline has a PB of 2:24:44, 5 minutes worse than Florence. She never ran any Major, and has little experience. She competed last year in WCh, ran 2:36:17 and was the worst Kenyan in the race.

There is really no reason to select her, since there are at least 7-8 kenyan Marathon runners better than her.

lack of objectivity wrote:

I'm just glad that the US doesn't pick its Olympic team by choosing who is most outspoken against doping, tough, has a good story, and is a politician. Korir is a great guy, has a good story, etc. That doesn't make him one of the top 3 marathoners in Kenya.

This is another example of why a purely objective trials system is so much more fair than selection by committee.

POD

Could they afford to have a runner get popped in the testing process?

Has a highly placed IAAF official leak word to countries with less than pristine doping records that an OG positive brings a nationwide multi-year ban on all athletes at every IAAF meet?

Actually AK made it very simple, they basically pick the winners of the recent big marathons:

- Jemimah SUMGONG : 1rs Londres 2016 ;

- Helah KIPROP : 1rs Tokyo 2016 ;

- Visiline JEPKESHO : 1rs Paris 2016 ;

- May KEITANY : 1rs New-York 2015 ;

- Florence KIPGLAGAT : 1rs Chicago 2015 ;

- Eliud KIPCHOGE : 1rs Londres 20016

- Stanley BIWOTT : 1rs New-York 2015 ;

- Bernard KIPYEGO : 1rs Amsterdam 2015 ;

- Cyprian KOTUT : 1rs Paris 2016 ;

So with two major exceptions : Dickson CHUMBA (1rs in Chicago 2015, nor selected even in the reserve), and Weslay KORIR...

So it seems that in Kenya an M.P term counts for 2 majors... :-(

Another point: Florence KIPLAGAT not selected :

I've always thought that F.KIPLAGAT is not a truly made for the marathon, and that she could do much better (29'50 or less) in the 10000m. She is a bit the female KAMWOROR. So I'm expected her on track this summer :-)

Renato CANOVA many times pop up his theory that with a good marathon preparation, your marathon pace can be only 5% slower than your HM record pace, and with some runners it could even get down to a 4% decrease.

With a PB of 1h05'09 and CANOVA's "5% rule", Florence KIPLAGAT should be under 2h17 in the marathon. She's been far from this achievement, despite a constant focus on the marathon the last few years.

So my conclusions are that:

1) either she was not well prepared in all her recent marathons (with Renato as coach, I doubt it) ;

2) or that she is not truly made for the marathon (where she underperform) ;

3) and/or Renato's "5% rule" must be revised...

I've asked the question to CANOVA some time ago here, of course he did not reply (whatever the good answer his, quite embarrassing for him anyway...)

If Wesley Korir and Visiline Jepkesho have any shred of integrity, they should voluntarily step aside for better runners. Visiline is young and inexperienced so she should wait her turn. Persuade her with big money in one of the fall marathons and I'm sure she won't mind.

Wesley, on the other hand, has been campaigning for this in the Kenyan media for months. Every chance he gets, he's been saying why he should be selected like its a job interview. There's definitely a political angle to this because it just doesn't make sense. He's not even in the current top 10 of Kenya's best marathoners. So disappointed.

Korir CONSISTENTLY performs well in bad conditions and under pressure. Reminds me of a certain someone who surprisingly medaled in 2004.

I'm certain political muscles were flexed. It's like if the US picked that Paul Ryan guy for their team.

Average Weather In August For Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

https://weatherspark.com/averages/33421/8/Rio-de-Janeiro-Brazil

As with most Olympic marathons it could be cool, hot or somewhere in between and the humidity could be low, high or somewhere in between. Rio looks to be the same.

For your information, Florence in London was only at 80% of the best condition.

She had to stop last year after Chicago (she was lucky to win because the competitors were not very fast, since already her training was very poor, coming after an injury that made her dropping out of the 10000m of Hengelo at half of June (Ethiopian selection, she was the only Kenyan, in front after 8 km, suddenly limping and stopping running for a problem in one toe which required 2 full months of stop for recovering). She started training at mid of August only, and in Chicago had less than two months of training. After Chicago, the pain came again, and she quitted training for one month, going to the New Dehli half Marathon with 10 days jogging only (this was a mistake), and in ND she had to drop out after 8 km because of the problem in her foot.

Finally, she quitted again every activity (going for physiotherapy only, plus some gym session) till 10th of January, starting the real training only when I arrived in Iten on 16th January.

For me, it was already a miracle she was able to reach the shape of London in 3 months, from nothing.

In London she was still 2 kg overweight, and had blisters after 35 km.

For that reason, I think she can run a very fast Marathon in August, having big room of improvement. But for trying to win Olympics she has to be selected....

Is there any living kenyan who has won an olympic marathon, male or female?

I can' t remember any.

No, why?

Renato: I am taking into consideration all her results for the last ~2+ years.

Let's consider 2014 :

- In Feb. 2014, she beat the HM WR with 1:05:12. If I take your "5% rule", it would mean her potential on the marathon is at least a low 2h17.

But her marathon results ~6 months around was :

- Berlin 2013 (a few months before her 1rs HM WR): 2:21 ;

- London 2014 (a few months after) : 2:20 and 2nd

But I remember you said that she prepared specifically for the HM WR in 2014, so she couldn't perform at 100% at London 2014. Ok...

But now, let's consider 2015 :

- Feb 2015 Florence beat again HM WR with 1h05'09 DURING A FULL MARATHON TRAINING (according to you). A

So according to your "5% rule", she should even be able to do a sub-2h17 on the marathon ;

- April 2015 : only 5th in London with a disappointing 2:24 ;

- October 2015 : winner in Chicago, but with 2:20 (far from the theoretical sub-2h17)

Did she have injury problem, or incomplete/incorrect marathon preparation for all the 5 marathons she raced the last 2 1/2 years?...

If not, I see only 2 remaining options:

1) Your "5% rule" is not correct (it works with some runners, not with others) ;

2) Florence is better suited for 10000 / HM than for the marathon

(or both 1+2 together)

Which option is/are correct? And don't you think she could achieve something great on 10000m?...

How I explained before, in Chicago last year she was not perfectly prepared, because of her injury.

About London 2015, the preparation was ok till her 3 World Records in Barcelona. The real problem is that, after 3 WR in the same race, the mental concentration decreased, and her next workouts were not at the same level of before Barcelona. Also, in London she ran one day before the beginning of her period, for the first time in her life, and the feeling was very bad, with heavy legs. This can be the explanation, because in training, in spite of the quality not at the level we wanted (after Barcelona), she clearly showed the possibility to run under 2:19.

El Keniano wrote:

No, why?

Thank you for confirming. I used Google, I tried Bing and Yahoo. I didn't find one.

This thread is a waste of time. We would rather discuss Ugandan Olympic Marathon selection.

I was in Rio last week. I can guarantee you that sub 2:07 in that course it's IMPOSSIBLE. Even for Eliud Kipchoge.

I jogged over the official circuit (In "Bahia de Guanabara", for example) in the morning, and I know, I'm not Kipchoge, i'n not elite, and relative humidity in May it's higher than August. But the fact is, the course it's difficult.

Some days ago I heard that some Brazilian athletes told to the media (off the record) that the course is slow on purpose,

Expect a race with something in the mid 70's (even low 80's peak). over 65%/70% humidity, 22/23°C dew point., and high pollution, of course.

I don't know if Wesley Korir is in shape. But forget about leaders cruising the half in sub 1:03. That would be suicidal.

This is a course builded and planned (prima facie) for athletes like Ruggero Pertile, Meb Keflezighi, Wesley Korir (if he's in good shape), Eritrean Geb, Marilson, Stephen Kiprotich, etc.

Moreover. I'm not sure about Stanley Biwott in that conditions.

I don't know about Ethiopians, but they can make a big mistake if they choose the top 3 athletes from Dubai marathon, instead of Kenenisa Bekele. This is not Dubai. 2:04/2:05 in Dubai it's not even 2:08 in Rio.

Thank you Renato. So, let's hope Florence will stay healthy and injury-free this time, and run a very fast marathon in Berlin.

Ben L Wrong wrote:This is a course builded and planned (prima facie) for athletes like Ruggero Pertile, Meb Keflezighi, Wesley Korir (if he's in good shape), Eritrean Geb, Marilson, Stephen Kiprotich, etc.

Moreover. I'm not sure about Stanley Biwott in that conditions.

I don't know about Ethiopians, but they can make a big mistake if they choose the top 3 athletes from Dubai marathon, instead of Kenenisa Bekele. This is not Dubai. 2:04/2:05 in Dubai it's not even 2:08 in Rio.

All this means is that on a slower course a larger group will be in contention and the results will be more random. It does not mean that Korir suddenly becomes as good as Kipchoge or the other Kenyan marathoners who are better than he is.