The 800 is a fickle b*tch. I don't think I ever ran close to what I should have, and part of that is getting into the right races. The 400 you can run fast on a one off occasion, but 800 and 1500 are important to have races that get out quick, too. I ran probably 5 1500s for every 800 I ran. The 3:38 and 48.30 are also separated by 4 full years, most of which was going all in on the 1500. 800 and 1500 are separated by 2 years.
I know that a lot of people on here claim to have run such and such times. I ran for a D1 program that consistently had good middle distance teams, and ran my best times 6 or 7 years ago. I'm a slow 35 year old man now. I meant the last part about taking progression slowly. I was at a pretty high level when I ran those marks, and started listening to people that said that I needed to do this or that to get the extra little bit. I ended my 20's with severe chronic overuse injuries, a running career that had careened off the tracks and regrets.
Michael is a special talent. The worst thing that the running community can do is hang all of our expectations on him or be critical when he races poorly. It didn't work for Webb or Hall, and it won't work for Maton, Fisher, Brazier, Hunter, the McGortys, the Lomong brothers, Slagowski, Saarel, or any of the others that we all talk about being the future of American running before tearing them down for getting hurt or racing poorly.