10 Years from Today ___ Number of High Schoolers Will Have Run Sub 4 in the US

I think 20 is definitely a reasonable guess. That would be around 1 per year. Obviously some years there won't be any, but other years I can definitely see 2 or 3 guys going sub 4. I still think Tamagno can do it this year, possibly a few others as well. The training will keep improving, and more and more guys will break the sub 4 barrier

Wejo, Ryun first broke 4:00 in 1964, not 1965 as you keep repeating. That's 52 years ago not 51. Making 2016 the 53rd year since the barrier was first broken.

1964 hs junior

3:59.0

3:39.0

3:41.9

1965 hs senior

3:58.3

3:56.8

3:55.3 (AR)

3:40.4

3:41.9

Why the added hostility? Couldn't a more neutral post have said:

Wejo, Ryun first broke 4:00 in 1964. That's actually 52 years ago, making 2016 the 53rd year since the barrier was first broken.

I know you know him personally, just saying...

It will still be 9. It's a fad, nothing more.

Next year the kids will be into Pokémon again, or something like that.

Another 5 or 10 sounds about right.

I think we're likely to see less intense participation in running by kids in the next decade. It's never on TV, so few are exposed other than families of athletes paying for internet streams. Very few opportunities for new fans to get hooked.

The Olympics are less and less interesting to watch. Political and mired by fraud.

And with the preponderance of evidence showing that winners are usually drugged, it discourages parents from having kids participate beyond a recreational level.

[quote]malmo wrote:

Wejo, Ryun first broke 4:00 in 1964, not 1965 as you keep repeating. That's 52 years ago not 51. Making 2016 the 53rd year since the barrier was first broken.

1964 to 2016 is the 52nd year since. Until the date of the 3:59.0 rolls around, then day 1 of the start of the 53rd year occurs. It won't s a full 53 years since until 2017.

BraveNewWorld wrote:

I think 20 is definitely a reasonable guess. That would be around 1 per year. Obviously some years there won't be any, but other years I can definitely see 2 or 3 guys going sub 4. I still think Tamagno can do it this year, possibly a few others as well. The training will keep improving, and more and more guys will break the sub 4 barrier

Yes definitely, in 10 years we will have 20+. Training methods are better or at least more widely accessible these days. Could be even more as it seems 2-3 are always on the cusp every year now. It's good to see. A good question might be when will the HS record be 3:50???

could still have Tamagno and Dunne do it this year

Only one counts wrote:

1964 to 2016 is the 52nd year since. Until the date of the 3:59.0 rolls around, then day 1 of the start of the 53rd year occurs. It won't s a full 53 years since until 2017.

You must struggle with that whole calendar thingy? Just as 2010 is the first year of the decade and 2019 is the tenth year, it follows that 1964 is the nominal fist year of the span 1964-2016, and 2016 is the nominal 53rd year. 1964 isn't the "zero year", but I made that clear in my post already.

hostile much? wrote:

Why the added hostility? Couldn't a more neutral post have said:

Every day angry drunks walk into bars looking for hostility, conflict and disrespect where there is none -- but he still sees it everywhere he looks.

malmo wrote:

Only one counts wrote:

1964 to 2016 is the 52nd year since. Until the date of the 3:59.0 rolls around, then day 1 of the start of the 53rd year occurs. It won't s a full 53 years since until 2017.

You must struggle with that whole calendar thingy? Just as 2010 is the first year of the decade and 2019 is the tenth year, it follows that 1964 is the nominal fist year of the span 1964-2016, and 2016 is the nominal 53rd year. 1964 isn't the "zero year", but I made that clear in my post already.

hostile much? wrote:

Why the added hostility? Couldn't a more neutral post have said:

Every day angry drunks walk into bars looking for hostility, conflict and disrespect where there is none -- but he still sees it everywhere he looks.

He, and rojo, are right malmo. You are wrong. You are claiming the 53rd year from day one, which has not started. Ryun ran 3:59 in 1964 at the Compton Relays. The date? You don't know do you? The date was June 5th, 1964.

BraveNewWorld wrote:

I think 20 is definitely a reasonable guess. That would be around 1 per year...

Seems like way to many based on the history of the event. Long dry spells have occurred in the past. There have never been any consistency, at any distance or event in T&F, to justify a rate of one per year as a top-10/-20 performance of all time.

He is right wrote:

malmo wrote:

You must struggle with that whole calendar thingy? Just as 2010 is the first year of the decade and 2019 is the tenth year, it follows that 1964 is the nominal fist year of the span 1964-2016, and 2016 is the nominal 53rd year. 1964 isn't the "zero year", but I made that clear in my post already.

Every day angry drunks walk into bars looking for hostility, conflict and disrespect where there is none -- but he still sees it everywhere he looks.

He, and rojo, are right malmo. You are wrong. You are claiming the 53rd year from day one, which has not started. Ryun ran 3:59 in 1964 at the Compton Relays. The date? You don't know do you? The date was June 5th, 1964.

No I'm not claiming "53rd year from day one." It's nearly 52 years since Ryun first broke 4:00 -- I've already made that distinction.

Use your fingers if you have to. 1964 is the first year that a high school kid broke 4:00. 2016 is the 53rd year.

malmo wrote: Wejo, Ryun first broke 4:00 in 1964, not 1965 as you keep repeating. That's 52 years ago not 51. Making 2016 the 53rd year since the barrier was first broken.

I am sure that all of you know how calendars work. I think the 'since' in the last sentence is what is causing the semantic disagreement. The malmo 'correctors' would never say, "1964 is the first year since the barrier was broken," or "1965 is the second year since the barrier was broken." They would say, "1964 is the year the barrier was broken, 1965 is the first year since the barrier was broken."

Interview with the guy who will beat Hunter head to head in a mile (but Hunter would torch him in any longer event): http://www.dyestat.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531&do=videos&video_id=174181

Verzbicas does not count as he was not a US citizen. My guess is that there have been several Australian, African, and British 18-year-olds that have broken 4:00 over the last 60 years (I know Steve Cram did), so Lukas Verzbicas does not count.

Maton does not count as he was 19. Full stop. Again, lots of 19-year-olds have broken 4:00 and we don't count them. He also did not run any kind of HS schedule. Doesn't count.

Hunter has only broken it indoors. Indoors does not count.

So, one way to look at it is that 4 did it in the last 2 years. Another way is that ONLY TWO guys have done it in the last 15 years ... Slagowski and Fisher.

Hardly a huge trend.

I am sure that Hunter has the ability to do it, but his indoor races just went to show how much faster the 200m banked tracks can be. Last week he ran a 3:42.5 against pros, instead of a 3:57y that was fairly easily accomplished. Again, I understand that he is capable of 3:55 or 56 or 57 but he didn't rip one off yet with ease (like he did indoors).

There was a 4:01 mile in 1965 (Lindgren) and a 4:02 or 4:03 nearly every year for 34 years until Webb, but it did not become commonplace then, and it won't now. To suggest that it will happen every year is stupid.

HALF THESE 'HIGH SCHOOLERS' WERE 19...

Training is a big factor in all these recent 4 minute miles.

However some even bigger factors are probably TRACKs, COMPETITION, EQUIPMENT, NUTRITION, AND OTHER SCIENCES.

We had very little in 1965 of these things compared to today.

Craig Virgin ran 27:29 in 1980. Can you imagine what he would run now?

Probably in the low 26:00s. When he ran 27:29 that was the 2nd best in the world.

Who done it? wrote:

Training is a big factor in all these recent 4 minute miles.

However some even bigger factors are probably TRACKs, COMPETITION, EQUIPMENT, NUTRITION, AND OTHER SCIENCES.

We had very little in 1965 of these things compared to today.

Craig Virgin ran 27:29 in 1980. Can you imagine what he would run now?

Probably in the low 26:00s. When he ran 27:29 that was the 2nd best in the world.

I was running in 1980, and I don't remember things being a whole lot different. We definitely had lots of tracks, competition, equipment, nutrition, and science in the U.S.A.

In the past 25 years, the U.S. mile record has come down 3 seconds and the 10,000 record has come down 30 seconds, so I'm not sure why you think Virgin would have run 26-low. Typo?

age cheats wrote:

HALF THESE 'HIGH SCHOOLERS' WERE 19...

Besides Maton, which ones were 19, please let us know?