Michael Slagowski- 1:48.70 SOLO

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Idaho guy,

I'll give you the point. I think being a fast 800m runner is a better predictor of a fast mile than being a good cross country runner. If he runs 4:09 or 3:59, fast either way.

Igy

Yeah, I normally say the same thing, but when 75% of the guys aren't known for their 800 speed and 87.5% are well known for their cross country prowess, it indicates that perhaps being able to compete at a very high level in longer distance races is more important. I would wager that the percentage is probably the same for guys that have run under 4:03.

Idahoguy,

Good points. Perhaps the added volume allows for faster development overall and a shot at sub-4 as a high schooler. He seems to have a powerful physique for his age.

Igy

jjjjjjj wrote:

He ran very close to even splits 400/400, roughly 54/54.7, where 2 second positive splits are "considered" ideal. He looks like he is going very smoothly and obviously is alone the whole race. So, he is not coming at this from the sprint side, clearly, and he looks like he can keep going. Malmo may be onto something here. We can look forward to some very fast performances at 800m and mile this year, maybe a sub-4 hs race, but definitely sub-4 and 1:46 with higher competition.

You can't just throw around 1:46 as if it is anything like a 4 minute mile. 1:46 is the Olympic qualifying standard, it is a whole different level. I see nothing from this kid that suggests sub 1:47. If he ran more aggressively in a race with better competition he could break 1:48 perhaps.

Two/three seconds in the 800m is loads.

[/quote]

That's an inaccurate assessment of Michael as a runner though. Cross country Michael vs track Michael are totally different animals, and it's not all due to speed. Like he could be a really good xc runner but I'm like 90% sure he hates xc; at least that's the impression I've gotten. In addition, he takes a crazy short break between sports and is on the indoor track one/two weeks after the season dropping hard repeats which leads me to believe that xc is simply used as a method to stay in shape and not as opportunity to prove fitness.

Also quoting bad races and then saying someone is average at xc is kind of a low blow. The dude is a state champion at xc, and dropped a 15:21 on a legit 5k course as a junior (albeit a flatter one). I wouldn't rule out sub-4, even if it is on the unlikelier side.[/quote]

I don't think Michael hates XC either, and I would disagree with what you said about his training. From what I know, Rocky takes 2-3 weeks off after cross country, and doesn't start indoors until January. That's a month of easy runs with maybe a few light workouts, added onto the 2-3 weeks off. They also take a week off after indoors, so plenty of rest. However, 1:46 and sub 4, in my opinion, are too aggressive of goals. Possibly 1:47 and 4:03 with some competition. On a side note, his PR on a legit cross country course is 15:34 on the old Nike Nationals course at Portland Meadows.

I was at both this run and when he won Arcadia last year. Both were just stunning.Arcadia video: http://www.arcadiainvitational.org/eprofile.php?event_id=63&do=videos&video_id=141110Arcadia splits: 58.148 (58.148) 1:51.846 (53.699) He had to run a huge negative split, and he came out of the back, so he had to run around a huge pack in the second 200m. When I saw that, I figured he was capable of sub-1:50 last year. He'd only been 12th in state cross before that.I don't think he ran another big invitational 800 last year – his focus was definitely on the mile/1600 (which he won at both Pasco and Jesuit Twilight Relays). He only ran the 800 again at Districts and State, but it was 3rd event, and he was clearly running for just the win – not worried about time. His background was as more of a 1600/3200 guy => those were his events at districts/state as a freshman and sophomore. But Idaho has a 4X8, and Rocky in particular was turning a lot of cross guys into 4X4 and 4x8 guys a couple years ago (coaching change since then) -- they dominated those relays in Idaho for a couple years (almost exclusively with cross guys, even in the 4x4). They had the 6th fastest 4x8 in the nation in 2013, and he was a part of the 4x800 that won Arcadia his sophomore year. Their guys would look fairly bulked up, and they had less relative success in the 1600 and especially the 3200.I know they were serious about lifting weights back then, and I'm guessing they were doing more drills/speed dev than a lot of *traditional* teams. Since the coaching change, it seems like they have gone to more traditional, endurance-based training. It seems like Slagowski may have gotten the best of both coaching systems: a foundation of strengthening/speed dev, followed by quality endurance work (and getting away from bulking up too much).

Metric Miler wrote:

You can't just throw around 1:46 as if it is anything like a 4 minute mile. 1:46 is the Olympic qualifying standard, it is a whole different level. I see nothing from this kid that suggests sub 1:47. If he ran more aggressively in a race with better competition he could break 1:48 perhaps.

Two/three seconds in the 800m is loads.

I don't know what he's capable of. This was a solo time-trial, but Arcadia showed that he's not just a time-trialer. With another month of training, in an optimally-paced race, with good conditions & excellent competition...I don't know. I don't think 2 seconds sounds so crazy.

I remember thinking, watching in that last 200 at Pulse, "Holy s***...he looks like he's almost at Olympic level..."

Maybe he could train hard, drop two seconds and run 1:46.7.

But that would be a mighty improvement over 1:48.7. Akin to running 3:55 in the mile after running 4:00.

He may have the talent, but nobody can watch that video and say that run was worth a 1:46 Ventolin-style.

As for sub 1:46 as someone posted, that is insanity. May as well say Kszczot will break the 800m world record this year, both the same improvement.

It's Idaho, trust me I ran in high school in Idaho and this is fairly typical

I predict 1:47.6 and 4:04 for Slagowski this year based on the little information available.

idrunner wrote:

It's Idaho, trust me I ran in high school in Idaho and this is fairly typical

What are you referring to that is fairly typical?

idrunner wrote:

It's Idaho, trust me I ran in high school in Idaho and this is fairly typical

Oh, unless you are talking about the amount of people on the infield in which case, that is very typical in Idaho.

1:48.70 solo in a small meet well ahead of peaking time. So, he may not run faster just as Brazier didn't run faster indoors than his early 1:45.93 (and didn't finish a race with competition after states last year to drop his 1:47 down). But if you figure that he ran very even splits for the 800m, just a slight positive split, 54/54.7, then with a 52.5 open and drafting (say, 1/2 second) and chasing advantages with top competition, it is not that unlikely that he could come back in 54 low at his peak. I am not predicting 1:46 flat but sub 1:47. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

For a start we do not know he is not peaking right now. It's not uncommon for young runners to get burnt out early and mis-time their peak, training too hard in the early months and not carrying through to June/July.

Secondly, you can't just go out 1.5 seconds faster in the 800m and hope you'll hang on, not at that level. The kid's PB is 49. 52.5 is too fast. If he went out a second faster so 53.0 and had runners to go with then returning in 54.7 would be impressive. More likely he would fatigue to a 55 2nd lap and run 1:48 low.

Like I said, 1:47.5 is possible with more training.

Sub 1:47 would be massive and unexpected, in my opinion.

jjjjjjj wrote:

1:48.70 solo in a small meet well ahead of peaking time. So, he may not run faster just as Brazier didn't run faster indoors than his early 1:45.93 (and didn't finish a race with competition after states last year to drop his 1:47 down). But if you figure that he ran very even splits for the 800m, just a slight positive split, 54/54.7, then with a 52.5 open and drafting (say, 1/2 second) and chasing advantages with top competition, it is not that unlikely that he could come back in 54 low at his peak. I am not predicting 1:46 flat but sub 1:47. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

I've brought him up before, but Donavan Brazier has similar credentials in XC, but split sub 47 and ran a legit 47.x FAT in the open. He has more leg speed, similar aerobic capacity and ran 1:48.07 winning by 10 seconds with even splits on a cold, windy day in Michigan. Donavan ran 1:47.55 in high school, and might have been able to run 1:47.0. Michael is not on the same level as Donavan, and thus I doubt he'll be able to run what Donavan ran. I'm thinking 1:48.30 this outdoor season.

Metric Miler wrote:

For a start we do not know he is not peaking right now. It's not uncommon for young runners to get burnt out early and mis-time their peak, training too hard in the early months and not carrying through to June/July.

Secondly, you can't just go out 1.5 seconds faster in the 800m and hope you'll hang on, not at that level. The kid's PB is 49. 52.5 is too fast. If he went out a second faster so 53.0 and had runners to go with then returning in 54.7 would be impressive. More likely he would fatigue to a 55 2nd lap and run 1:48 low.

Like I said, 1:47.5 is possible with more training.

Sub 1:47 would be massive and unexpected, in my opinion.

Agree. I can see him going 1:47-mid to high. Maybe 1:47-low in a perfect race. He could also sniff 4:00 in the mile.

folks on the other thread say he's a sub 4:00 type miler based on 1:48.70

No they don't, "they" (meaning people with a grasp of the concept of equivalence) are saying that his 1:48 is as good competitively as a 4:00. Roger Bannister ran 3:58 but never broke 1:50. Wilson Kipketer ran 1:41 but never broke 3:42/3:59.

see the other thread wrote:

folks on the other thread say he's a sub 4:00 type miler based on 1:48.70

I broke 2:30, but only ran 5:16?

Igy

Yeah I don't think so. Where is his 5000m or xc pedigree?

Being fast is not enough.

Even splits doesn't mean he is a miler. Heard of Wottle, Borzakovskiy and now Tuka?

My best 800's have personally come from running very small positive splits (0.5-1s) and I am much better at the 800m than the 1500m.

IdahoGuy wrote:

All due respect to Tracy Harris (brother of low 3:50's guy Rich Harris), but I don't think he will. I've been saying this to everyone regarding HS sub 4 minute milers- they all have something in common.

Every single one of them was a top-flight, national top 10 cross guy.

Ryun was far from a top 10 guy in cross, and never broke 9 minutes for 2 miles in high school. I think his best was 9:13, and Slagowski ran 9:14 a year ago.