Lagat has verbally committed to doing the 10000m at Oly Trials - top two spots are now gone to Rupp + Lagat.

Lagat may be able to go under 27:15 he ran 27:48 on the roads in his first 10k, roads tend to be slower than track, I would not be surprised if he thinks he can beat Rupp at 10000, he is 21-4 lifetime vs Rupp, yes his age is very high for top level, but he is an anomaly.

He should stick with the 5,000m

Oly Trials 10k is almost always slow. Saying Chris Derrick or German Fernandez can beat Lagat in the type of race is disrespectful to Lagat. He could probably drop a 3:55 mile if he needed to...Derrick can't. What Lagat can't do is a long drawn out kick from 800m out like Farah does.

50 Shades Of Gray Area wrote:

I assume a bunch of guys, including Lagat, will have to run Payton Jordan in order to get their Oly qualifier?

They will have to.

Can't go to Olympics without standard and can't get at the Trials (per USATF policy which can obviously change on a whim)

Payton Jordan is the 1st round of the Olympic Trials for all purposes for many athletes.

Thanks. That is what I was thinking.

real excite wrote:

50 Shades Of Gray Area wrote:

I assume a bunch of guys, including Lagat, will have to run Payton Jordan in order to get their Oly qualifier?

They will have to.

Can't go to Olympics without standard and can't get at the Trials (per USATF policy which can obviously change on a whim)

Payton Jordan is the 1st round of the Olympic Trials for all purposes for many athletes.

real excite wrote:

50 Shades Of Gray Area wrote:

I assume a bunch of guys, including Lagat, will have to run Payton Jordan in order to get their Oly qualifier?

They will have to.

Can't go to Olympics without standard and can't get at the Trials (per USATF policy which can obviously change on a whim)

Payton Jordan is the 1st round of the Olympic Trials for all purposes for many athletes.

You can get the qualifier at the Trials (ie Ritz in 2012), you just can't get it after Trials like you can do with the U.S. champs and Worlds (ie Andrews and True last year) but to assume it will be a sub 28 race isn't too much of a stretch if conditions are good, 28:00 is the standard

Lagat said he'll run a 10k in May, Payton Jordan is in May, but so is Pre which does a 10k every year now since 2011 that I know of

This is great for Lagat, if he doesn't make the 10k team he has a chance in the 5k again 2 days later, True doubled just fine last year

Lagat opened up his indoor season w/ a 7:41 3k at US Indoors, he's fit

I think Lagat is still relatively untested in races longer than 5k. Unless I am mistaken, he has run two road races over 5k in recent years, the NYC Half Marathon (a relatively mediocre result) and one road 10k (27:48 world masters record). As such, we really don't know what he is capable of in a track 10k. Given his pedigree, it would not be astonishing to see him make the 10k team, but it would not be a surprise either if he fell short. Folks are sometimes a bit overly optimistic in assuming that guys who can run fast at middle distances would find 64 x 25 to be easy. Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Steve Ovett and Alan Webb pulled of a pair of good 10k efforts. I don't think Coe ever broke 14 for 5k. Obviously, since Lagat has already run 27:48 on the roads, we know he can extend his range. On the other hand, one never knows how father time is going to play out on any given individual. What he did at 40 he may not be able to do at 41. He is super focused, so perhaps he can time things right and be ready to go at the trials. It will be interesting. Personally, I am rooting for Ritz, but that will probably get even longer odds.

^This is a pretty good summary of how I feel.

Lagat has extended his prime running age a tremendous amount. More than I would have thought he could. It kind of has to end at some point. Every year that goes on, I think that gets closer.

I'm not sure he can run the standard. I'm not sure he can beat the other competitors in the race. I'm pretty sure I'd bet on him if the race acme down to a 200m kick. Not sure that is going to work on a 1000m or 1200m kick, thoguh. All in all, just too many presumptions taht are too optimistic to proclaim that he is a lock for one of the three slots.

Yeah it is me wrote:

Bernard Lagat would have NO CHANCE to make the Olympic Team. Do you think the 10,000m is a joke? Lagat could have easily made the 10,000m team in 2012, but the last 4 years have seen Lagat decline to the point that he is no longer a threat to make the team. This is the way it is. Nothing can change that. Fernandez actually does have a small chance. Lagat does not.

Not sure of your definition of threat to make the team or a decline over 4 years.

He ran 12:58 in 2013, just 2 1/2 years ago.

And last year he had the 6th best American time over 5000 plus he ran a 3:54 mile last year.

Sure, if he declines at all he won't make the team but his recent results shows some pretty damn good fitness for anyone to be a threat to make the US team.

His 10,000 ability is pretty much unknown.

We know he did win a gold medal in the 5000 without much 5000m experience at the time.

If I was a conservative bettor I would pick a safer bet that counting on him to not make the team.

Yeah it is me wrote:

Bernard Lagat would have NO CHANCE to make the Olympic Team. Do you think the 10,000m is a joke? Lagat could have easily made the 10,000m team in 2012, but the last 4 years have seen Lagat decline to the point that he is no longer a threat to make the team. This is the way it is. Nothing can change that. Fernandez actually does have a small chance. Lagat does not.

This is false. Lagat may not make it but he hasn't totally declined.

In 2014, he beat Galen Rupp at Worlds in the 3k and won the silver.

In 2015, he ran 737 indoors and 1314 outdoors.

Outdoors, he wasn't as good but he did just run 741 indoors. In case you forgot, he was just .06 away from Eric Jenkins and he beat Heat, Mead, Jager and Rupp.

If True is hurt or does the 5k, if Derrick is hurt, then the 10k seems to be quite wise.

How has it not gotten brought up that he JUST ran 7:41 indoors?? With a monster close over the last few laps. I think goes to show he still has some kick ability at 41, and like said above he has the strength from a sub 28 road 10k. If he chooses the 10k he is definitely going to be a factor.

ClonedDuck wrote:

How has it not gotten brought up that he JUST ran 7:41 indoors?? With a monster close over the last few laps. I think goes to show he still has some kick ability at 41, and like said above he has the strength from a sub 28 road 10k. If he chooses the 10k he is definitely going to be a factor.

Good point.

Personal observation; I always recognize runners by gate. It is so distinctive. In a 1500 or 5,k Lagat's bobbing lope looks so game and so ready to pounce. But when I saw him running the NYC Half Marathon, he looked like a lion lost on the tundra of Siberia. I almost didn't recognize him. Of course--the pace was slower, so I guess the stride should look different. It was a different Lagat though. Over 10k though--I can see him doing something special if the cards play out right.

Gait, not gate

OKinator wrote:

cl wrote:

No Olympic Trials race will be run in 27:15.

CORRECT

cl wrote:

There is no one fit enough at the moment to take it out in sub-13:10...

NOT RELEVANT. Since when is a sub-13:10 first 5000 necessary for a 27:15? Sub-13:10 is world record pace (by a fair bit) for crying out loud!

But still, you are correct. There will be nothing close to 27:15 at the trials.

Sub 13.10 is not world record pace "by a fair bit". 13.09 isn´t even WR pace.

Look The wrote:

Gait, not gate

I plead autocorrect, but thanks.

Lagat isn't as fast as he used to be. I want to say he's a lock but these days if it comes down to a kick Lagat will get smoked. Under a fast pace he certainly has a chance.

10k contenders:

Fernandez

Rupp

True

Estrada

Mead

Kipchirchir

Heath

Lagat

+ a couple more that I'm forgetting

Lagat has a chance, but no certainty. Only certainty I would say is Mead and if True competes, him too. We don't know how well Rupp will recover.

Other options wrote:

OKinator wrote:

CORRECT

NOT RELEVANT. Since when is a sub-13:10 first 5000 necessary for a 27:15? Sub-13:10 is world record pace (by a fair bit) for crying out loud!

But still, you are correct. There will be nothing close to 27:15 at the trials.

Oh sub 13:10 is world record pace? By a fair bit? Really? 13:09 is world record pace?

Your correction is duly noted. My mistake.

Doesn't change the point of the post however. The notion that a 27:15 requires a first half in 13:10 is absurd.

Still, I give you credit once again for the correction.

The mere fact that he's looking at running the 10000 is evidence that Lagat himself is losing confidence in his kick. He may be a factor and he may well make the team, but he's not "a lock".

Did Lagat not run 27:48 in the toads last year? He can easily hit the standard on a track, and few Americans are in shape for even 27:48. In a 28:30 race I would be surprised if Lagat wasn't top 5. Top 3 is where the real question lies.