And if you are trying to extrapolate fitness based on how the defending champ reacted to a tough start; you are not an athlete.
And if you are trying to extrapolate fitness based on how the defending champ reacted to a tough start; you are not an athlete.
Totally agree with you. Pre-select him at 10K. His world half championship race was awesome. I like his aggressive style of running and hope to see him in the Olympic finals 5K and 10K. Thank you for the numerical analysis of times. I'd like to see a 12:30.
ventolin^3 wrote:
it's a pity they haven't pre-selected him for 10k so he woud only need to run 5k
mo gets pre-selected for both
It's not like Great Britain has any other 10K runners in the top 10 in the world.
Where Kenya has four.
Kenya is too deep for any pre-selections based on prior year results.
You need to give any runner who may be ready for a breakthrough this year to have a chance to make the team.
If there are three better runners than Kamworor and Tanui then they should all get a shot at making the team.
ventolin^3 wrote:
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/mar/26/mo-farah-bronze-geoffrey-kamworor-world-half-marathon-cardiffthe paper says he ran 1st mile in 4'15 & we know leaders went thru in 4'30
He didn't run the 1st mile in 4:15 though. Watch the video, he was only down for 7 seconds. Brojos even counted for us. That means his first 400 was more like 61-62.
Why is he bothering with the 5K? He cant hack it against Ndiku, Koech, Choge, Paul Tanui, Longosiwa, Soi
coach deez nuts wrote:Someone has no clue about the sport because they are skeptical someone is saying a guy with a PR of 26:52 is in shape to break the WR in the 10000m by 7 seconds?
OK
eh ???
just like mo had a 3'33.9pb before he ran 3'28.8 ???!!!
do you have a clue that pbs mean nothing once we see a near or actual flat out run to get better idea of ability ?!
ventolin^3 wrote:
coach deez nuts wrote:Someone has no clue about the sport because they are skeptical someone is saying a guy with a PR of 26:52 is in shape to break the WR in the 10000m by 7 seconds?OK
eh ???
just like mo had a 3'33.9pb before he ran 3'28.8 ???!!!
do you have a clue that pbs mean nothing once we see a near or actual flat out run to get better idea of ability ?!
That's true, Mo did. But then Mo didn't run 3:24, he ran 2-3 seconds SLOWER than the existing WR, not faster. Mo didn't outrun the top 1500m in the world. Kam is not going to run sub12:45.
ventolin^3 wrote:
do you have a clue that pbs mean nothing once we see a near or actual flat out run to get better idea of ability ?!
Of course I do.
Do you realize how great 26:17 is and how phenomenal the athlete who holds that record was?
Wtfunny wrote:That's true, Mo did. But then Mo didn't run 3:24, he ran 2-3 seconds SLOWER than the existing WR, not faster
you don't know much about the sport if you think 12'37 is as good as 3'26.00
all records are NOT equal
do you think 12'37 is as strong as 9.58 or 19.19 into a wind ???
12'37 is a very good time bit it's probably worth a 3'27.0, about 1s inferior to hicham's record
in contrast, 26'17 is much weaker, worth probably ~ 3'27.9
Mo didn't outrun the top 1500m in the world. Kam is not going to run sub12:45
eh ???
do you remember paris-'12 when for 1st time in years some sort of pace, but not great, was kept up in 4th km & 6 guys ran 12'46 - 12'49 inclusive, with winner running wide all the way on the last lap, which was intrinsically a 53+ finish in an intrinsic 12'45 ???
the winner probably had close to 10s more in him if pace had been fast enough to bell so that he coud only muster a 61s last lap instead of an intrinsic 53+
12'45 was nothing shape for the top-2 guys in paris if they get a perfect even-paced route-1 race gun-tape & the 4 behind them wouda been 12'40 - 12'43
12'45 is nothing shape for the top guys
coach deez nuts wrote:Of course I do
no
you don't
Do you realize how great 26:17 is
it's good but nowhere as strong as other wrs
it's probably worth a 3'27.9 for 1500
that means the performance has value of 3'27.9 not that the 26'17er was capable of 3'27.9
he wasn't capable of breaking 3'30 that day
and how phenomenal the athlete who holds that record was?
oh he was very good
however his 12'37 ( worth 3'26.9 ) nor his 26'17 are nowhere as strong as 1'40.9 nor 3'26.0
ventolin^3 wrote:
Mo didn't outrun the top 1500m in the world. Kam is not going to run sub12:45eh ???
do you remember paris-'12 when for 1st time in years some sort of pace, but not great, was kept up in 4th km & 6 guys ran 12'46 - 12'49 inclusive, with winner running wide all the way on the last lap, which was intrinsically a 53+ finish in an intrinsic 12'45 ???
the winner probably had close to 10s more in him if pace had been fast enough to bell so that he coud only muster a 61s last lap instead of an intrinsic 53+
12'45 was nothing shape for the top-2 guys in paris if they get a perfect even-paced route-1 race gun-tape & the 4 behind them wouda been 12'40 - 12'43
12'45 is nothing shape for the top guys
Which is why only three men in history have ever run 12:45 or faster.
Wtfunny wrote:
ventolin^3 wrote:eh ???
do you remember paris-'12 when for 1st time in years some sort of pace, but not great, was kept up in 4th km & 6 guys ran 12'46 - 12'49 inclusive, with winner running wide all the way on the last lap, which was intrinsically a 53+ finish in an intrinsic 12'45 ???
the winner probably had close to 10s more in him if pace had been fast enough to bell so that he coud only muster a 61s last lap instead of an intrinsic 53+
12'45 was nothing shape for the top-2 guys in paris if they get a perfect even-paced route-1 race gun-tape & the 4 behind them wouda been 12'40 - 12'43
12'45 is nothing shape for the top guys
Which is why only three men in history have ever run 12:45 or faster.
Threads like this where Ventolin goes off have been rapidly being deleted. He started two threads asking Canova his thoughts on Kamworor which got deleted, the thread on Kiprop, and I'm sure a few others.
This will be gone soon enough when people start disproving him / making him look stupid.
The Dingo^3 wrote:
Wtfunny wrote:Which is why only three men in history have ever run 12:45 or faster.
Threads like this where Ventolin goes off have been rapidly being deleted. He started two threads asking Canova his thoughts on Kamworor which got deleted, the thread on Kiprop, and I\'m sure a few others.
This will be gone soon enough when people start disproving him / making him look stupid.
No, Ventolin is right, as usual. Ventolin is the El G of the letsrun boards.
That would be awesome.
Any word on Kiprop possibly doubling?
Kamworor and Kiprop most exciting to watch right now.
Wtfunny wrote:Which is why only three men in history have ever run 12:45 or faster
this shows you really know nothing about the sport because of lack of research & inability to use logic
a few guys just outside 12'45 are prime examples :
eluid ran 12'46 with silesi outkicked in 12'47
this was on for close to 12'40 at 3 & even nearer 4k, but silesi did his usual ethiopian-patented parasiting & eliud refused to make the pace when he realised he was being drafted off & slowed waiting for last lap kick
if silesi hadn't been in that race & eliud couda run uninhibited not having to worry about being picked off, he wouda gone close to 12'40
similarly, canova pointed out the rome -'06 race where kennster won the sprint by a fraction in 12'51 ahead of cherono with songok close
canova said cherono was in 12'40 shape & the pace was on for this at 3k
however, kennster who was leading, this time got scared as in rare position of being the pacer, & slowed the pace to a crawl waiting for the last lap sprint
he got the jump on cherono at the bell who was just preparing for the kick & got few meters on him, which cherono gradually pulled back but not quite enough real-estate left to overtake
canova said his boy, cherono was in 12'40 shape that day & i believe him as he had already run 12'48 over 3y before in his 1st ever serious 5k when thumping hicham
learn : 12'45 is a nothing time & if the top guys had all had the perfect race, the number of < 12'45 guys wouda been more like 10 - 12 instead of 3
So you've just named two guys who "coulda" run 12:45. That gives you five guys who "coulda" broke 12:45 (of course, with "smooth pacing to bell").
Five.
In the history of T&F.
Five.
F.I.V.E.
Fi-fukkin-ve.
Five men in the history of the world "coulda" broke 12:45.
Three "actually" did.
Even without naming anyone else, you magically say the number of sub-12:45 guys "wouda" been more like 10-12.
Ten-twelve men in the history of the world who might've been able to run 12:45.
That doesn't make it a "nothing time".
9.84 is the cutoff time for the fastest ever 10-12 men over 100m (the primary differences being (a) how many of those guys have been busted for PEDs, and (b) that is the actual, real world top fastest 100m runners, men who did actually really run that fast). 9.84 is not a "nothing time" for 100m. 12:45 would make anybody one of the most elite athletes in history.
Well, you know what DOES make it a nothing time? Statistically, it's like not actually existing. Much like, ironically, most of the performance times of your imaginations. It's a "nothing time" in the sense that most of the people you imagine to have run it never actually ran it.
which you wouda known if you knew anything about the sport
add songok who crushed kennster in a 12'48 !!!
any guy who can do that has to be in huge < < 12'45 shape
no
now 6
clueless
+ all the others i'll mention
for the rest :
the 2 gebs in paris-'12 who ran 12'46/12'47 with blistering 54 & 55 finishes, the winner actually ran wide both bends, so more like 53+ finish !!!
that's 8
then we have the 4 other guys who went < 12'50 that day
koech did the donkey work & made the race
someone else doing it & better, he wouda gone < 12'45
then yenew behind him who was a shadow of the guy who ran 7'27i
that's upto 10
i haven't included the 5th/6th guys in that race who wouda been just shy of 12'45
then add in tergat who ran 12'46 whilst primarily aiming for 10k wr few days later & suicidally try to keep up with komen/geb instead of running his own race
that is 11
& i have not said anything about mo/bernie/rupp/hicham !!!
not one of those coud go < < 12'50 considering 6 guys did in paris ???!!!
that gets you your dozen
it is
paris-'12 showed it because pace was still to slow in 4th km
why are you wasting my time with 100m ???
it's far more competitive
your argument is also nonsense because if you believe lot of them doped, then the 12th position becomes much slower than 9.84
more like 9.90+
not if that was their absolute flat-out ability
it woudn't get them in top-dozen alltime if all had run perfect races
utterly clueless
no ability to analyse
canova already said cherono was in 12'40 shape
geb2 winning in 12'46 with intrinsic route-1 of 53+ you incomprehend indicated huge < < 12'45 if pace had been fast enough to bell so he coud only eke out a 61
VENTOLIN
If we send you race videos of our races, will you tell us how fast we could have run in ideal conditions?
This would be a great service.
What's wrong with you? When did Songok EVER rush Bekele in 12:48? You mean Zurich, 2006, when Bekele, after blowing by Songok on the back straight, came first, winning, with Songok over 5 yards behind him, nearly 0.75 seconds back? Is that the race you're talking about? Because that doesn't seem, to me, like Songok crushing "kennster".
This may be so. But Songok did NOT do that. And, from everything we saw, could NOT do that.
Nope. Still FIVE.
and, weirdly, still only THREE who actually did run sub 12:45.
I'm all giddy with excitement.
Two more guys who might possibly have run sub 12:45 .. but have not ACTUALLY run 12:45 or lower.
That's seven. Still an incredibly elite field.
Nope .. not this race .. he had nothing his last lap. He did the work, but he wasn't in sub 12:45 that day.
No it isn't. If he was near a sub 12:45 guy he wouldn't got hammered on that last lap like he did but the two gebs. He has great top end speed, but it wasn't there, run out of him by the race. No 12:45 for him (and don't just make sh!t up like "was a shadow of the guy ...". You have ZERO basis for that).
Well, don't let that stop you .. you seem to be more than willing to find a few seconds here and there when you need it.
Nonsense.
He didn't run 12:46.
He ran 12:49.87 .. barely breaking 12:50. Komen paced the race perfectly for 12:45, running 12:49.90 and Tergat couldn't keep up.
No cigar.
No, it isn't.
None of those guys have run anywhere NEAR 12:45.
None of them.
Mo may go under 12:50. He very likely could've at some point. I don't think Rupp ever will. Bernie didn't. Hicham never broke it, and got pasted by Cherono when he ran 12:50.xx. If he was a 12:45 guy, he'd have thrashed Cherono's kick at that pace.
Nope.
12:45 would make anybody one of the most elite athletes in history
Yes, if that was their absolute flat-out ability.
this is fantasy land.
But the top twelve athletes of all time is most certainly not the range of a "nothing time".
The word you're looking for is "imagine". Not "analyze".
Cherono may have been in 12:40 shape. Or may not have. He certainly never ran within 8 seconds of that, and was close to nine seconds off it. If Cherono was in 12:40 shape, then running 12:45 is most definitely a helluva achievement. Coming within 5 seconds of the great Cherono is awesome. Certainly not "nothing". Running 5 seconds faster than Paul Tergat could ever manage, even on his best day, is not something I think many elite runners would call "nothing".
You seem to misunderstand how a kick works. An athlete in an optimally paced race doesn't run perfectly even laps and drop dead as they cross the finish line, which is what you seem to want to believe. Any athlete will ALWAYS be able to run a faster last lap than his race pace in an optimal run. That differential will vary with various factors, but anyone who can muster 61.xx seconds per lap for 11.5 laps is going to go under that for the final lap.
I think this is one thing you seem to consistently misinterpret, and I don't fully understand why it's so impossible for you to fathom.
The 12:45 race was doped to the gills (well the runners were). none of the have been close since.