dradd12 wrote:
take an unfit 20 year old with a 5k PR of 25 minutes. for the next 5 years he does nothing but easy running at 70% max heart rate while gradually increasing his mileage to 100 mpw and holding it there. after that he enters a 5k at the age of 25. how fast will he run it?
This is preposterous. We don't know anything about the motivation of the person. Many dedicated runners struggle to reach 100 mpw. Joe Schmo gets there? If Joe Schmo can get there, he can also start guiding himself to faster base running and various paces. Meaning he has a natural intuition and curiosity that flourishes . But A lot of older runners seem to do what you describe, though. They train long distance like dedicated fiends but can't seem to do speed work, Biomechanic work in the gym, etc. They think their joints can't handle it but hey! They can still lift huge, show off, play football and basketball... It's all absurd to me. So this guy might end up an idiot who can't break 19-20m in the 5k but can be super proficient at 10-15 miles.
The whole premise is absurd. Usually every athlete has some sort of life base under their belt. Lots of activity in childhood, or lots of standing on the job in adulthood. Someone who is truly unfit is going to get injured for sure. Assuming they don't get injured and stay motivated to advance that far is jumping the gun big time. But let's suppose the 20 year old is someone with running dreams and knowledge who just didn't get around to training for whatever reason: job, money, love life. 5 years steady training, even basal, and moving up to 100 miles a week is great. But who in their right mind wouldn't want to run fast and throw some speed in? That's part of the joy of life! So assuming you mean mostly base and lack of dedicated speed training and not some totalitarian moratorium on any speed ...
Ah fugedaboutit, it's preposterous!