take an unfit 20 year old with a 5k PR of 25 minutes. for the next 5 years he does nothing but easy running at 70% max heart rate while gradually increasing his mileage to 100 mpw and holding it there. after that he enters a 5k at the age of 25. how fast will he run it?
100% easy running
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Depends on his talent.
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let's have
a) no talent
b) some talent
c) lots of talent -
Do you allow the athlete to run strides?
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dradd12 wrote:
let's have
a) no talent
b) some talent
c) lots of talent
a) bullshit number I pulled out of my ass
b) slightly faster bullshit number I pulled out of my ass
c) see above
That will be the extent of this discussion. -
I'll bite.
With no fast running (I'm going to assume no strides, hills either in reference to the previous poster):
I'd say just under 19:00.
But I would add that I don't think it makes too much difference whether he runs 100 mpw for 5 years or 50 mpw. More important factors would be:
1. Longest single run every two weeks
2. Frequency of runs (every 24 hours, every 12 hours, every 48 hours?)
Your body operates on a daily cycle, not a weekly one. Even with purely easy running, you are still training it to be stressed, and then adapt to that stress. That very simple idea of what fitness is has little to do with a total number of miles at the end of a week. -
If all he ever does is running at 70% of maximum heart rate, it will be really easy to predict his 5k time, because it will be the exact same pace as all of his other runs.
He'll probably run about 19:30, since about 6:15 pace should be around 70% of maximum heart rate for most moderately talented runners with a decent amount of easy mileage. -
21:12
15:47
12:54 -
There's no way he won't settle into at least 7min pace for easy runs and therefore he will be able to at the very least run sub 18.
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Most guys on here never for once tried just running easy for an extended period of time without any kind of fast stuff. They got told it wouldn't work on day 1 of their running life and have no doubt in their minds that this is right. -->you won't get any useful info here.
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5kslow wrote:
There's no way he won't settle into at least 7min pace for easy runs and therefore he will be able to at the very least run sub 18.
Exactly, easy pace will get progressively faster. I'd say at least sub 18 mins. -
People who never ran competitively in hs or college, for some reason, just don't know how to run fast. Sometimes they can get good at marathon but they always suck at 5k and under, it's because their race pace is the same for all distances. They just can't run any faster than 5:45-6:00 pace. So I predict 18:00.
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nerdy virgin xc runner wrote:
People who never ran competitively in hs or college, for some reason, just don't know how to run fast. Sometimes they can get good at marathon but they always suck at 5k and under, it's because their race pace is the same for all distances. They just can't run any faster than 5:45-6:00 pace. So I predict 18:00.
Sad but true. I am a perfect example of this.
I say 18:50 on our hypothetical runner. -
i didn't exactly get off the couch, but i did no workouts:
i took a 2 months off - nothing - after a December marathon a few years ago and then starting running about 30-35 miles a week for about 5 months. i did 4-6 strides about 1-2 times a week but otherwise usually ran all my miles between 7:00-7:40 pace. Occasionally i'd throw in a mile or two (generally downhill) at around 6:15-20 pace, but no workouts. no planned fartlek. no tempo. longest run was 10 miles. nothing else but easy runs, exploring the trails and the different parts of my city. it was glorious. its a great way to stay in shape after a long cycle of training/racing and stay mentally fresh
i got convinced by a friend to run a 5k and got caught up in the adrenaline and ran my first mile in 5:20 and ended up running 16:16.
background of previous year:
about 35-50 miles a week. 55 miles biggest week.
10k - 33:35
HM - 1:13:30's
Marathon - 2:36 (second one)
i ran 49 400m, 1:52 800m, 4:14 mile, 15:24 5k in college
5kslow wrote:
Most guys on here never for once tried just running easy for an extended period of time without any kind of fast stuff. They got told it wouldn't work on day 1 of their running life and have no doubt in their minds that this is right. -->you won't get any useful info here. -
So if his main problem is that he can't run fast the better question would be:
How fast can he run a 10k, half marathon and marathon? -
dradd12 wrote:
take an unfit 20 year old with a 5k PR of 25 minutes. for the next 5 years he does nothing but easy running at 70% max heart rate while gradually increasing his mileage to 100 mpw and holding it there. after that he enters a 5k at the age of 25. how fast will he run it?
Slow, he has no speed and can't push it in a race. 18/19 mins best. -
DNF, ends up meeting some chic in bar has 2 kids she starts getting chunky and gives him attitude about staying in shape.
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Plenty of our crew have started at around that pace and trained up for sub 3 hour marathons off 80 to 100 km per week after 3 to 4 years. Most were guys in their 30s. Only speedwork being local races.
My guess a 20 yo with good basic ability would get down to the 17s. With real talent probably 16. -
17:00 or faster. The consistent heavy mileage would drop his 70% pace to a pretty good clip. He would be able to push his heart rate faster in a race.
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All endurance no speed
marathon 2:49
half 1:23
10k 38:00
5k 18:00
