Sadly, Galen Rupp has waited too long to become a marathoner. Alberto was not smart enough to realize that Galen never had a chance to medal at 5000m. Alberto has actually now admitted that Galen would have virtually no chance to medal at 5000m currently. Of course that is the reason they are going to do the 10,000m and marathon double in Rio. Galen is now past his prime as a runner, as he probably will never be in sub 26:55 shape again. Now as a marathoner, Galen once had the potential to run 2:06 or so. Galen will never run that fast now, as he has waited too long to become a marathoner. Galen's best years are behind him, and the field he defeated at the Olympic Trials was so mediocre that nobody would have been within half a lap of him if it had been a 10,000m race. The result is that nobody should expect much of Galen in Rio as he will be at best 6th in the 10,000m and no better than 9th in the marathon.
Galen Rupp Became a Marathoner Too Late in His Career
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Take your mindless hatred elsewhere, son.
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I completely disagree. Prime marathon age is often past 30; look at Gebrselassie, Keflezighi, Ritzenhein. Rupp ran a 27:08 at Beijing last summer in the immense heat and a 26:44 without a closing sprint the year before; he is easily in the shape to break 27 again. In addition, Rupp recently did a workout at 4:52 mile pace for 20 miles. That is roughly 2:07:35 marathon pace. That was without a kick, without competition, without pacers, and without his heart rate ever topping 149. Rupp should run a 2:05 within the next few years. I expect rupp to finish 4-6 in the 10000m in Rio, although he still has potential to medal, but in the marathon I think he should be one of the favorites to medal. The finishing kick he displayed at the OMT was incredible.
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I agree completely. Rupp is in his prime, and is extremely fit. Any E. African watching Rupp's performance yesterday was probably getting a little scared.
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Carlos Lopes ran his first marathon at 35. At 37, he won the 1984 Olympic Marathon. At 38, he set a world record for the marathon. This was nine years after he won the World X-C Championships and an Olympic Silver in the 10,000. Remind us again - why is Rupp too old to become a marathoner?
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This is an interesting debate. E. Africans are going straight into the marathon now that the prize money for the marathon has eclipsed the prize money available on the track. Around the same time, top times in the marathon dropped so much that a once near world record of 2:06 is now somewhat pedestrian. Could be doping, but you get my point.
But, in the US, the opposite has been happening. The cream of the crop goes to the track because they get support from the big elite training groups and sponsors to shoot for the Olympics and WCs. Those who cannot make a go of it on the track head to the roads.
Whatever you say about Rupp's timing, you cannot say that he should have switched to the marathon before the 2012 Olympics. That would just be dumb to say that he should have skipped out on a medal. But after the 2012 Olympics, there is an argument to be made that he should have switched to the marathon. He could have raced six world marathon majors by now and have established himself as a real threat for a medal in 2016. Instead, he is going into 2016 having never raced against E. Africans in a marathon. He had a great win against Meb, but he pretty much had the race wrapped up the last few miles. It is a different story when you have to match huge surges the last few miles.
But Rupp's agenda after 2012 was more about getting some ARs and writing his name in the history books. I am not sure he would have been able to accomplish anything similar in the marathon during that time. -
schultzj1 wrote:
I completely disagree. Prime marathon age is often past 30; look at Gebrselassie, Keflezighi, Ritzenhein. Rupp ran a 27:08 at Beijing last summer in the immense heat and a 26:44 without a closing sprint the year before; he is easily in the shape to break 27 again. In addition, Rupp recently did a workout at 4:52 mile pace for 20 miles. That is roughly 2:07:35 marathon pace. That was without a kick, without competition, without pacers, and without his heart rate ever topping 149. Rupp should run a 2:05 within the next few years. I expect rupp to finish 4-6 in the 10000m in Rio, although he still has potential to medal, but in the marathon I think he should be one of the favorites to medal. The finishing kick he displayed at the OMT was incredible.
When you say that "Rupp should run a 2:05 within the next few years," it reminds me of all the fanboys who asserted with equal confidence that Rupp should run 12:50 or faster within the next few years.
You also have no idea when you state that "prime marathon age is often past 30," and then start discusing Geb. For all we know, Geb would have run 2:02 in his mid to late 20s. We have no idea and we will never know. Rupp moved too late to the marathon if he wanted to be the best marathoner he could be. Now he will run a few 2:07 or 2:08 marathons and people will all be waiting for something faster. It will NOT happen. -
Precious Roy wrote:
This is an interesting debate. E. Africans are going straight into the marathon now that the prize money for the marathon has eclipsed the prize money available on the track. Around the same time, top times in the marathon dropped so much that a once near world record of 2:06 is now somewhat pedestrian. Could be doping, but you get my point.
But, in the US, the opposite has been happening. The cream of the crop goes to the track because they get support from the big elite training groups and sponsors to shoot for the Olympics and WCs. Those who cannot make a go of it on the track head to the roads.
Whatever you say about Rupp's timing, you cannot say that he should have switched to the marathon before the 2012 Olympics. That would just be dumb to say that he should have skipped out on a medal. But after the 2012 Olympics, there is an argument to be made that he should have switched to the marathon. He could have raced six world marathon majors by now and have established himself as a real threat for a medal in 2016. Instead, he is going into 2016 having never raced against E. Africans in a marathon. He had a great win against Meb, but he pretty much had the race wrapped up the last few miles. It is a different story when you have to match huge surges the last few miles.
But Rupp's agenda after 2012 was more about getting some ARs and writing his name in the history books. I am not sure he would have been able to accomplish anything similar in the marathon during that time.
This is a more intelligent response than one usually gets here, and by that I do not mean from you, but here generally. Galen truly be humbled in the marathon, and he was racing the OT marathon against runners who generally struggle to break 28 minutes in the 10,000m. I doubt Meb, for instance, can run faster than 28:20 these days. I also agree that after 2012 was the right time to make the switch, as there is nothing wrong with trying to be a marathoner who can also do fairly well on the track, which would have his best bet the past few years. -
Of course I meant to write that "Galen will truly be humbled in the marathon..."
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Yeah it is me wrote:
Sadly, Galen Rupp has waited too long to become a marathoner. Alberto was not smart enough to realize that Galen never had a chance to medal at 5000m. Alberto has actually now admitted that Galen would have virtually no chance to medal at 5000m currently. Of course that is the reason they are going to do the 10,000m and marathon double in Rio. Galen is now past his prime as a runner, as he probably will never be in sub 26:55 shape again. Now as a marathoner, Galen once had the potential to run 2:06 or so. Galen will never run that fast now, as he has waited too long to become a marathoner. Galen's best years are behind him, and the field he defeated at the Olympic Trials was so mediocre that nobody would have been within half a lap of him if it had been a 10,000m race. The result is that nobody should expect much of Galen in Rio as he will be at best 6th in the 10,000m and no better than 9th in the marathon.
This is complete nonsense.
He focused on the 10,000m and got a Silver Medal in London beating Bekele (World Record Holder) and was right behind Mo Farah who was virtually unbeatable in London. Now he's moving to the marathon and I believe the timing is absolutely perfect. Time will tell.
Of course, amateurs like you won't be happy with anything less than a Gold medal in Rio or else he will be called a failure.
Am I right? Of course I'm right. -
nobody can be certain.
We can agree that it will be interesting to watch over the next 4 years.
Mr. Lopes had the patience to wait to try the marathon distance.
It was a successful strategy for him.
Granted, he might have run a minute or so faster had he tried it earlier.
bottom line: it is too early to know if Mr. Rupp waited too long to become a marathoner. -
drunk runner. wrote:
Yeah it is me wrote:
Sadly, Galen Rupp has waited too long to become a marathoner. Alberto was not smart enough to realize that Galen never had a chance to medal at 5000m. Alberto has actually now admitted that Galen would have virtually no chance to medal at 5000m currently. Of course that is the reason they are going to do the 10,000m and marathon double in Rio. Galen is now past his prime as a runner, as he probably will never be in sub 26:55 shape again. Now as a marathoner, Galen once had the potential to run 2:06 or so. Galen will never run that fast now, as he has waited too long to become a marathoner. Galen's best years are behind him, and the field he defeated at the Olympic Trials was so mediocre that nobody would have been within half a lap of him if it had been a 10,000m race. The result is that nobody should expect much of Galen in Rio as he will be at best 6th in the 10,000m and no better than 9th in the marathon.
This is complete nonsense.
He focused on the 10,000m and got a Silver Medal in London beating Bekele (World Record Holder) and was right behind Mo Farah who was virtually unbeatable in London. Now he's moving to the marathon and I believe the timing is absolutely perfect. Time will tell.
Of course, amateurs like you won't be happy with anything less than a Gold medal in Rio or else he will be called a failure.
Am I right? Of course I'm right.
My happiness is not predicated on the success of Galen Rupp. Yes, it was smart to stick with the track until about 27. But Galen waited too long. This is NOT a catastrophe. It simply means that Galen will NEVER run the marathon as fast as he could have...It does NOT impact my happiness. I will not call him a failure for his performances. Never. If anybody should rightly call him a failure, it might be due to his moral compass, but he is far from being alone in that regard. -
Still no response to the fact that Lopes was a lot older that Rupp when he ran his first marathon. Real evidence sucks sometimes. Just ignore it - maybe it will go away.
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Rupp2016 wrote:
Still no response to the fact that Lopes was a lot older that Rupp when he ran his first marathon. Real evidence sucks sometimes. Just ignore it - maybe it will go away.
What does that have to do with anything? The main reason why Carlos Lopes became a better runner as he got older was because he started blood doping.
Galen is already doping. He is NOT going to improve as a runner, and his best marathon days are behind him. This is not a big deal. -
Yeah it is me wrote:
Sadly, Galen Rupp has waited too long to become a marathoner. Alberto was not smart enough to realize that Galen never had a chance to medal at 5000m. Alberto has actually now admitted that Galen would have virtually no chance to medal at 5000m currently. Of course that is the reason they are going to do the 10,000m and marathon double in Rio. Galen is now past his prime as a runner, as he probably will never be in sub 26:55 shape again. Now as a marathoner, Galen once had the potential to run 2:06 or so. Galen will never run that fast now, as he has waited too long to become a marathoner. Galen's best years are behind him, and the field he defeated at the Olympic Trials was so mediocre that nobody would have been within half a lap of him if it had been a 10,000m race. The result is that nobody should expect much of Galen in Rio as he will be at best 6th in the 10,000m and no better than 9th in the marathon.
Hey there Cliffy -
Lopes was a doper too? Wow. How about Frank Shorter? Was Murray Halberg a doper? For God's sake, please don't tell me that Sohn kee-Chung was a doper. If you say that Spyridon Louis was a blood doper I will lose my mind. I will just have to come to terms with all of this. So, please tell us the names of all of the famous runners who were blood dopers. Oh, it would be really helpful to provide some real evidence in support of your position. Evidence that would be admissible in an American civil or criminal trial. Evidence that would demonstrate, at least on a balance of probabilities (if not beyond a reasonable doubt), that each named person was a doper. Thanks!
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Yeah it is me wrote:
What does that have to do with anything? The main reason why Carlos Lopes became a better runner as he got older was because he started blood doping.
Galen is already doping. He is NOT going to improve as a runner, and his best marathon days are behind him. This is not a big deal.
Then why are you making it a big deal?
The problem with your argument is that everything you say is hinging on something that can never be known. -
Since 2000, the bronze medal has only once been under 2:10 and frequently been 2:11-2:12. In 2012, bronze was 2:09:37, the winner 2:08 low, in 2008, bronze was 2:10, gold and silver in 2:06:32/2:07, while in 2000 and 2004, we're talking about 2:10-12. So, if that form holds, Rupp will absolutely be able to hang with the leaders and have a shot at a medal. The cooler the better for him. Incidentally, I saw that the UK's Jon Brown was very close to a bronze twice.
http://www.olympic.org/olympic-results/london-2012/athletics/marathon-m -
pathfinder wrote:
Yeah it is me wrote:
What does that have to do with anything? The main reason why Carlos Lopes became a better runner as he got older was because he started blood doping.
Galen is already doping. He is NOT going to improve as a runner, and his best marathon days are behind him. This is not a big deal.
Then why are you making it a big deal?
The problem with your argument is that everything you say is hinging on something that can never be known.
First point: I am not making it a big deal. I am making an assertion of minute importance.
Second point: Many assertions can never be entirely proven, but for those who are extremely intelligent, they can be made with some degree of certainty. IF I say, for instance that the women's world record for the marathon will NEVER be as fast as the men's, you can respond by saying that "everything you say is hinging on something that can never be known," and I can nonetheless make the assertion with some degree of certainty. -
jjjjj wrote:
Since 2000, the bronze medal has only once been under 2:10 and frequently been 2:11-2:12. In 2012, bronze was 2:09:37, the winner 2:08 low, in 2008, bronze was 2:10, gold and silver in 2:06:32/2:07, while in 2000 and 2004, we're talking about 2:10-12. So, if that form holds, Rupp will absolutely be able to hang with the leaders and have a shot at a medal. The cooler the better for him. Incidentally, I saw that the UK's Jon Brown was very close to a bronze twice.
http://www.olympic.org/olympic-results/london-2012/athletics/marathon-m
You're essentially saying that presumably due to less than tremendously stellar competition, that Galen will be in the hunt for a medal. Perhaps, but remember that Galen has not proven much as a marathoner, and of course he knows that. Galen's Olympic Trials win was a joke. Galen managed to beat a 40 year old. It would be like defeating Lagat in the 5000m now. Not much to hang your hat on if you're Galen Rupp.
