Upsets at marathon trials aren't that common, at least not in the post-Mark Conover era. The top four for the men and women in 2012 were exactly what most people thought they'd be, though not necessarily in the precise order. (Abdi had crept back on people's radar in about the last 72 hours).
It's not QUITE the same for this Saturday. Maybe Rupp CAN't handle 26.2 miles. Maybe Ritz hasn't had enough time to get ready. And at some point, Meb does become too old, and that can happen right away, without warning.
I'd still pick those three to make the team, though. But Luke Puskedra could sneak in, and if one of he big three falters, Sam Chelanga or Jared Ward might have a shot. I'd be very surprised if anyone other than one of those three or the "big three" make the team.
I may be jumping the gun here, but the list of contenders on the women's side isn't really longer.The top four from last time, for sure. Deena running as well as she did in her last Chicago Marathon seems unlikely.
The one pertinent question no one seems to be asking is why everyone, at least in writing, seems to think Amy Cragg is that much better of a marathoner than Serena Burla. I'd say there's valid doubt about that.