These guys have a chance - Meet the 20 Trials qualifiers who have a shot at Rio if anyone in the Big 3 falters

Yes.

Upsets at marathon trials aren't that common, at least not in the post-Mark Conover era. The top four for the men and women in 2012 were exactly what most people thought they'd be, though not necessarily in the precise order. (Abdi had crept back on people's radar in about the last 72 hours).

It's not QUITE the same for this Saturday. Maybe Rupp CAN't handle 26.2 miles. Maybe Ritz hasn't had enough time to get ready. And at some point, Meb does become too old, and that can happen right away, without warning.

I'd still pick those three to make the team, though. But Luke Puskedra could sneak in, and if one of he big three falters, Sam Chelanga or Jared Ward might have a shot. I'd be very surprised if anyone other than one of those three or the "big three" make the team.

I may be jumping the gun here, but the list of contenders on the women's side isn't really longer.The top four from last time, for sure. Deena running as well as she did in her last Chicago Marathon seems unlikely.

The one pertinent question no one seems to be asking is why everyone, at least in writing, seems to think Amy Cragg is that much better of a marathoner than Serena Burla. I'd say there's valid doubt about that.

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Heat could be a great equalizer in this year's race. I took some crazy upsets in the contest. Rupp not in my top 10 (DNS/DNF hard to discount).

Honestly I'm most surprised that the probability from the binomial distribution was calculated correctly at the end of the article there

Rupp will get beat by somebody with real world experience.

I wager $100 he will DNF

Rupp

Meb

Estrada

I'm willing to wager this is how it will end up. Rupp, although without marathon experience, is by far the most talented runner in the field, while Meb is by far the most experienced and consistent at the marathon. Estrada, although making his debut, has a 60:51 half to his credit, which is worth a 2:07 high, I'm not saying he can run that, but if his half translates at all to the full, he'll make the team.

nutmegs wrote:

Honestly I'm most surprised that the probability from the binomial distribution was calculated correctly at the end of the article there

Your welcome. That 5 on the BC Calc exam finally came in handy. As a former HS math teacher, I'm ashamed to admit in actuality, I just found a website that did it for me. I found the formula and was doing it by hand and thought I might mess it up. So I found a site and understood it enough to look for

Surprised to see eggleston with the 4/5th fastest time run in the last 2 years. Hope he ll bounce back

Great article! Maybe its mu monitor, but many of the athletes look taller or shorter than reality. Bobby Curtis looks like a midget in the twitter photo used in the article, but much taller in the same photo here: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX60P4dW8AArVt9.jpg

Surprised to see eggleston with the 4/5th fastest time run in the last 2 years. Hope he ll bounce back