Rupp and trials marathon: a diff't perspective

I hope that Galen decides not to run. It is going to be ridiculously hot and this will mess with his recovery. 10k is most important and Indoor Worllds is more important than the marathon.

mis-remembering? wrote:

The "U-turns" on the Stanford course are very gradual bends. No one would claim that it's anything but a very easy layout.

And are you referring to the Regional in '08 when Rupp was a 5th year senior and Puskedra and Derrick were true freshmen? And Rupp was ripping one because he had run in Beijing and this was only his 2nd (after Pac-12) XC race of the season, while the others were treating it as a qualifying round?

Right. And like most cross country there are constant turns, bumps, and undulations. I wasn't saying it was particularly tough, but that it's was constantly changing directions and uneven in places.

And yes you are correct, Rupp was JUST starting to race after taking a break after the olympics, and these guys were peaking and racing to qualify for NCAA's. This was also the year that Derrick and Puskedra went 5, 7 at NCAA's I believe.

On another note, is Garret Heath now on PEDS?? Rupp beat him by over a minute and a half.

1 Rupp, Galen Oregon 27:41.24 1

2 Kiptoo-Biwott, Shadrack Oregon 28:32.31 2

3 Kipchumba, Alfred Portland 28:36.02 3

4 Kinsella, David Portland 28:43.88 4

5 Derrick, Chris Stanford 28:44.31 5

6 Puskedra, Luke Oregon 28:45.48 6

7 Ghebray, Yosef California 28:53.67 7

8 Mineau, Jeremy Washington 29:06.29 8

9 Gonia, Daniel Cal Poly 29:12.39 9

10 Heath, Garrett Stanford 29:14.44 10

OP,

We all get that it's a marathon and anything can happen. But I'm with all the other posters who say that Rupp is so far above most of the competition that he can bring his C game and still qualify. It's highly unlikely that he will need to bring his or A or B game.

This is a nice concise summary of the whole thread.I do think OP is also saying that no one is guaranteed to have their A, B, C, D, or E game for 26.2, and that a lot of folks seem to be dismissing that.

Darron wrote:

OP,

We all get that it's a marathon and anything can happen. But I'm with all the other posters who say that Rupp is so far above most of the competition that he can bring his C game and still qualify. It's highly unlikely that he will need to bring his or A or B game.

UturnMaster wrote:

Rupp was JUST starting to race after taking a break after the olympics, and these guys were peaking and racing to qualify for NCAA's. This was also the year that Derrick and Puskedra went 5, 7 at NCAA's I believe. On another note, is Garret Heath now on PEDS?? Rupp beat him by over a minute and a half.

That was a regional qualifying race.

If you want a true comparison with Rupp as a 5th year senior, post the collegiate results from the final.

Connected to NOP wrote:

I hope that Galen decides not to run. It is going to be ridiculously hot and this will mess with his recovery. 10k is most important and Indoor Worllds is more important than the marathon.

Please don't make the same mistakes Alberto did.

AW believer, what is AW?

I agree that the marathon has a higher probability of things going wrong, even for experienced runners. But Galen Rupp is, objectively speaking, unlike every other American to try the marathon OT, ever, except maybe Dathan Ritzenhein. If you look at the photo in that link, what you see is a guy who ran 27:08 in hot conditions at a WC. He's renowned for crossing very T and dotting every i in his training, so I doubt he's any more likely than anyone else up front to bonk -- probably less likely than anyone than Meb. Except Meb is over 40, so he might not be as bulletproof as he once was.

1. Rupp

2. Ritz

3. Meb

Tadese is an interesting example. He's never run a marathon near his predicted capability (he doesn't run many because he makes a killing in half marathons), but he did run a 2:12:03 in his debut as a less seasoned runner than Rupp is at this point in his career. 2:12 was disappointment, no doubt. Anybody under 2:12 will make the US Olympic Team (for an Olympics that will be cancelled due to the Zika virus).

Tadese had run a 58 half marathon before running 2:12.

Plus his cross country and track accomplishments.

sc42 wrote:

He's renowned for crossing very T and dotting every i in his training, so I doubt he's any more likely than anyone else up front to bonk -- probably less likely than anyone than Meb.

1. Rupp

He's renowned for taking every T(estosterone) and using every i(nhaler).

With all due respect, and your voice is one of reason and experience, I don't think it will take time for him to do well nationally. If necessary, he will be able to break 2:10. Most likely, he will only do what is necessary to make the team. However, if he is far superior, he will go for the win. While Salazar may have many faults, one of them is not "miscalculation". People can't lambast him for pushing the envelope of legal/illegal drugs through countless hours of meticulous research and expect him to mess up with something as simple as this. If Rupp ends up racing, he's prepared to do it well.

You have missed the point. Rupp's 10K PB might indicate great marathon potential; but that's all it is, potential. You could equally argue that Rudisha's 800 time indicates great 1500 potential but until he seriously tries the distance you just don't know.

Lots of good 10K (and even half marathon) runners find it difficult to perform at a similar level over the full 26 mile distance - at least initially. For the record, I think Rupp will run well, probably make the US team and if he does that and really focuses on this event in Rio he will be a serious contender.

mark b wrote:

You have missed the point. Rupp's 10K PB might indicate great marathon potential; but that's all it is, potential. You could equally argue that Rudisha's 800 time indicates great 1500 potential but until he seriously tries the distance you just don't know.

Lots of good 10K (and even half marathon) runners find it difficult to perform at a similar level over the full 26 mile distance - at least initially. For the record, I think Rupp will run well, probably make the US team and if he does that and really focuses on this event in Rio he will be a serious contender.

800 to 1500 is a real apples and oranges comparison. maybe if you took a 5K guy to 10K guy we that would be a bit better. but then I think we usually aren't too suprised right? exception being solinsky. but I don't think anyone expected teg to be phenomenal at 10K. very good but not great, much like his marathoning.

rupp is different from those types, he ran 28:28 in high school! he ran 28:15 as a college frosh with a huge negative split of sub 14:00 the last 5K. he was running that alone. he's always had a big old long distance engine. i do agree that we still don't know FOR CERTAIN how he will end up as a marathoner. i would bet pretty damned good and a lot more consistent at the top end then Hall.

" Potential is there, but reality bows to no man."

I agree and disagree with you.

There is absolutely no guarantee that Rupp with will a good marathoner. 10k and even 1/2 marathon are different races. Just because someone is great at 10k or 1/2 marathon offers little to any predictability to their success at a marathon. Yes, the training is almost identical, but that does not matter. It's not a matter of training. People are either suiting for the marathon or they are not.

Rupp will either have a good to great first race and will be our next Ryan Hall (for better or worse), or he will not and he'll never really be a top tier marathoner. He could get better, but he won't go from 2:11-2:12 to 2:06 in a few years with practice.

Of course, it's doubtful he fully goes for it in the trials. He'll run just fast enough to win or get in the top 3. Or he'll drop out as soon as he knows there's no chance. IMO.

"While Salazar may have many faults, one of them is not "miscalculation". "

Do you think his calculation for Mo's marathon debut was accurate?

While it's hard to call Mo's debut an utter failure, I'm pretty sure they were expecting 2:07 or a little better.

Pangolin wrote:

Mo ran what was considered a lackluster debut in 2:08, running mostly in isolation in London. Rupp has PRs within seconds on the track of Mo and has a lighter stride more suited for the roads. It won't even be close.

Someone please bookmark this moron's response

"potential is there, but reality bows to no man"

While its true that some very good 10000 runners don't run the marathon well off the bat, tit is also true that Olympic golds and world records have often been taken by people who were thought of mainly as top 10000 runners not long before. Lopes, Radcliffe, Shorter (remember he was also the top American in the 10000 in 1972), Tergat, Gerbresellasie. Maybe the best Olympic examples are Viren and Zatopek... just jump in there after winning a 5/10 double, and make everyone shit themselves.