Rupp and trials marathon: a diff't perspective

Tyrone ReXXXing wrote:

rojo wrote:

Let's don't let facts get in the way of a good argument.

Eliud Kipchoge mile pb: 3:50.40.

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Geb ran 3:31 indoors. Certainly capable of probably 3:47 outdoor mile.

Bekele was capable of sub 3:50 mile

Those guys were pretty strong in their first marathons.

What most people seem to be missing is that these guys (and Dixon) have a 10 year gap between their best 1500/miles and marathons. Making that transition is a lot easier to do gradually. Rupp has run his mid d PRs in the last 3 years.

Gurgle wrote:

Ahead of myself wrote:

Same here.

Close to 28:00 in the 10k. Never broke 2:20 in the marathon.

This is fascinating. I would like to hear more examples of how Galen Rupp's marathon experience will be the same as people he would lap in a 10,000.

That's not the point, dumbazz. Based on my 10k PR you'd project +/- 2:12 for the marathon.

And my point dumbazz is that Galen Rupp's 10,000 performances are closer to Eliud Kipchoge and Sammy Wanjiru than they are to you, so he has a lot of room for error.

Gurgle wrote:

And my point dumbazz is that Galen Rupp's 10,000 performances are closer to Eliud Kipchoge and Sammy Wanjiru than they are to you, so he has a lot of room for error.

Right. And he might be a 2:10 guy not a 2:05 guy. Try and keep up.

Like Rupp, you waited to long. Its an american thing, run a full career then fall back to the marathon. Your not alone the list is long.

Young elites, don't be afraid.

I still remain doubtful Rupp is even moving up to the Marathon. Yes, he announced that he is going to show up at the start line for the trials and run it. But attempting a marathon is different than "moving up" to the marathon and focusing on it. We'll see if he finishes, and if he does, whether its in the top 3.

But we can all believe one thing. Rupp's primary focus is on the 10,000M and I don't think he is going to compromise any of his training to do anything but run the best 10000M Olympic race he can. That means speed work. I thought he said that he plans to run the 5000M as well at the trials. That contradicts that Rupp is seriously focused on the Marathon.

My guess is that Rupp is focused on base training for the 10000M and it just happens to coincide with marathon training so he is going to give the Trials Marathon a try. If he qualifies for the Olympics than he has that in his back pocket. But after the marathon trials its going to be all about the track. I bet he runs the 5000M and qualifies and if he does he will run the 5000M in the Olympics.

I agree with the OP. The idea of running a marathon/10K double and focusing on the 10K makes no sense. Its no sure thing Rupp can even qualify for the marathon for reasons he stated. But even if he does, I think it would be disrespectful to those American dedicated to the marathon if Rupp focuses on the track in the months leading up to the Olympic, but retains his spot on the Olympic marathon team.

Being te most talented does not change what happens to your body over the last 4 miles. It is silly talk to think that your fade ratio has something to do with talent.

What is the debut record? How about without pacers? How about without pacers in 70 degrees? How about without pacers in 70 degrees in a championship race?

So... What I've learned from reading this entire thread is that the marathon is tricky to predict and Galen Rupp may or may not win/make top 3/DNF in the race.

Got it.

I think we all know the marathon is tricky, guys. No one is saying he will 100% FOR SURE win the race. People just think he's more likely to win than others.

In general most of the better performances by US runners in the marathon have been their first time out.

The fact that outside of Ritz and Meb we still have virtually no one that can run under 2:10 is a shame. 2:11 or 2:12 hasn't gotten it done since before Shorter in 72. Guys have all the opportunity to train and not work, aren't driving across the us to earn $ in road races and sleeping in couches or floors. No more just going for it most times.

I just wish that someone I know and trust would want to bet me $1,000 that Rupp will be outside the top 3 (or either dns or dnf). I would regard that as relatively easy money.

reality isnt rupp certified, so he doesnt deal with it

Supremely Talented wrote:

Being te most talented does not change what happens to your body over the last 4 miles. It is silly talk to think that your fade ratio has something to do with talent.

What is the debut record? How about without pacers? How about without pacers in 70 degrees? How about without pacers in 70 degrees in a championship race?

Tsegaye Mekonnen at 2:04:32 is the fast debut

If you look at americans, Hall ran a 2:08:24

Guys like Williams had good debuts (2:11 and he was probably only a 27:50 type guy at that point).

As far as the other stuff, all the other guys have to run in the same conditions. Rupp is running for a place not a time. If the race goes out in 2:14, do you think he is going to be upset? Maybe Rupp doesn't handle heat well. I have no clue.

If Rupp had to run a 2:06 to make the team (pretty reasonable for guy with his HM/10k times), I wouldn't like his chances. Having to run a 2:10 or so changes the game quit a bit.

Yes - if Rupp ends up DNF, he could still be a great marathoner. I believe Bill Rodgers dropped out of his first Boston Marathon just after heartbreak hill. He just stopped, rested a little bit, and then jogged home. (This is how he tells it in his most recent book).

I totally agree with the assertion that there marathon is a different animal, and I think Rupp will be far from his best marathon in this race. But, and this is the point, he doesn't need to perform anywhere near his capability to make the team (and win).

Using VDOT, his predicted marathon time would be in the mid-2:03s. He won't run that fast. He can run 5 deviations lower on the VDOT matrix and still run 2:10. What this means in real life is that while everybody else has to have a perfect day to win/make the team, he can do so at 85% effort. He's just that much better than everybody else.

This is a case of the greatest ever American distance runner in his prime vs. a bunch of hard working much less talented guys. Rupp could sabotage himself, but I doubt this will happen. I see him running behind whomever the leader(s) is through 23 miles and then easing past the leader for a comfortable win.

1. Rupp 2:09:35

2. 2:10:55

3: 2:12:05

TheBestDreamRunner wrote:

reality isnt rupp certified, so he doesnt deal with it

Finally, someone said it! Too many turns- not Rupp certified. See if he can deal with 26.2 miles of rhythm changes and fatigue.

Supremely Talented wrote:

Being te most talented does not change what happens to your body over the last 4 miles. It is silly talk to think that your fade ratio has something to do with talent.

I will agree with this to a certain extent, but actually would someones ability to fade less or fade later be their talent? That being said, we certainly can't correlate to 10K or really even half marathon talent with any certainty.

I'm not sure how many people posting have actually run at a good hard clip for over 20 miles. I can say from my own (perhaps foolish) experience that I had a few years of going 22 miles pretty much every sunday during my build up parts of the year (June-October and January-April). I would average about 5:45 to 5:55 pace on those, as it was really one of my workouts for the week. That mean over 2 hours of running, often close to 2:10 at a pretty strong, but not all out effort. I guess you would say tempo.

What I noticed is that I would feel strong and smooth up until about 1:45 to 1:50 almost every time. After that I would certainly notice a change. Sometimes I would start to get dizzy, my stride would shorten and often the last 10 minutes was pretty gritty. Keep in mind that I didn't have any supplements or water because this was just a giant loop in the country, which is why I couldn't cut it down to 18 or 20 miles which probably would have been smarter.

I never raced a marathon, I was training for cross country and road 10Ks, but I can certainly imagine what those with marathon experience are talking about after the 20-22 mile point because I felt the beginning of it several times. And it's a total shift. I'm sure water & supplements push that point further out then my experience, but only so much further.

Here's part of what I wrote the day Rupp announced:1. The course does not suit Rupp well. He's a rhythm runner, and all those turns won't help him.http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=6998901&thread=6998748#6998901

jaguar1 wrote:

TheBestDreamRunner wrote:

reality isnt rupp certified, so he doesnt deal with it

Finally, someone said it! Too many turns- not Rupp certified. See if he can deal with 26.2 miles of rhythm changes and fatigue.

rojo wrote:

agip wrote:

anyone who can run a 3:50 mile is definitely going to have a very hard time the last 30 minutes of a marathon. Miler legs are different than marathoner legs.

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Let's don't let facts get in the way of a good argument.

Eliud Kipchoge mile pb: 3:50.40.

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And Haile did 3:32-3:33 in the 1500, didn't he?

Montesquieu wrote:

Here's part of what I wrote the day Rupp announced:

1. The course does not suit Rupp well. He's a rhythm runner, and all those turns won't help him.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=6998901&thread=6998748#6998901

jaguar1 wrote:

Finally, someone said it! Too many turns- not Rupp certified. See if he can deal with 26.2 miles of rhythm changes and fatigue.

You really should have seen rupp run xc regionals in palo alto. He beat Derrick, Biwott, Heath, Puskedra and everyone by a minute and more. It almost seemed like the turns helped him. Everytime he'd do a u turn and ran past the group he put more distance on them. This might be his perfect course.