Rupp and trials marathon: a diff't perspective

Devil Dog nailed it.

The OP is the 'you kids get out of my yard' guy.....

OP, get back to the Lazy Boy and your year end ranking edition 1993 T&FN.

I think the arguments on both sides of this issue have merit. I do think Rupp is capable of running 2:05, but he won't have to. I believe he will win because the competition, compared to say, a WMM, is weak. If we were talking about London, I don't believe even a top 5 finish would be a realistic expectation for Rupp. My prediction is either a ridiculously easy win or a dnf. And, a dnf makes him more marketable for his next marathon outing than a 3rd or 4th place in his debut.

Here's the thing. Due to the contingent quirks of history, including the approximate distance from Marathon to Athens, and Lucian's "account" of something that transpired, we have a race that's not 20 miles, but a bit over 26. If the race were only 20 miles, no one in his right mind would believe anything other than Rupp would be extraordinarily successful. However, those extra 6 miles mean everything . . . given the way human physiology works--the way we burn glycogen, the way we burn fat, the way we sweat, the way we hydrate, our muscle mass: and all of these factors differ from one person to another in ways that we can't possibly predict and they all come into play in a marathon. Farah, the best 5 and 10 guy in the world, in perfect conditions, in great shape, with self-described ideal training, did not break 2:08--not even a club (NOP) record. For all those who think it's so obvious Rupp can run a fast marathon and will have little trouble making our Olympic team, would you have bet the 2:08 over? I doubt it. So the OP's remarks are a healthy and skeptical reminder that the marathon is, as someone in an earlier thread noted, mimicking Robert Heinlein, "the marathon is a harsh mistress." And as Malmo pointed out, one can be running nice and easy at 22 and feeling great, and all of a sudden the trapdoor opens and one is gone.

rojo wrote:

. The thing I've never understood about Rupp is he's a guy that couldn't break 4:00 for years.

Ohh here we go again. Why don't you ask Wheating and Centro when Rupp started working out with the milers.

Here's the thing, that's a great post!!!!!!!!! but unfortunately this is LR.

One poster below yours just posted that he'll win or dnf and that he'll be more marketable if he doesn't win (quite obvious). Wow, that's really putting it out there pal. Salazar couldn't predict the top 3 and he's been there.

[quote]perspectivererer wrote:

I have decent pr's Ron, but no one knows crap as it's all a guessing game.

John Treacy ran a heat of the 10,000 on August 3rd 1984 in 28:18.

He ran the final on August 6th and took 9th in 28:28.

On August 12th, 6 days later, he ran the first marathon of his life and took the silver in 2:09:56.

All of this after just turning 27. Yes, I know John, but I'm not biased at all as facts are facts and I'm not even getting into his WCC victories.

Rupp may win, drop out, or may just not be feeling his Cheerios that day as it's 26 miles, not 100 meters.

Rupp is a talent and if I was forced to bet, I'd say he will make the top 3 and with the money on the line, he'd want the victory as well....but it isn't that easy fellas. And if he craps out, I surely wouldn't count him out as a marathoner as others have done the same thing the first time out and turned it around rather quickly.

Montesquieu wrote:

. . . Farah, the best 5 and 10 guy in the world, in perfect conditions, in great shape, with self-described ideal training, did not break 2:08--not even a club (NOP) record. For all those who think it's so obvious Rupp can run a fast marathon and will have little trouble making our Olympic team, would you have bet the 2:08 over? . . .

The marathon is unpredictable and Rupp may have problems, but Mo ran 2:08 after splitting 1:03 at the half. The US trials is almost certainly going to be two minutes slower at the half which makes it far less likely (but not impossible) that Rupp is going to fade badly.

Citizen Runner wrote:

The marathon is unpredictable and Rupp may have problems, but Mo ran 2:08 after splitting 1:03 at the half. The US trials is almost certainly going to be two minutes slower at the half which makes it far less likely (but not impossible) that Rupp is going to fade badly.

I was about to post something similar. Farah also mentioned he messed up with a few fueling stations later in the race, which could explain some of his 63/65 splits.

Rupp is so much better than everyone else, he'll be able to relax and make sure he doesn't make any mistakes the first 20 miles. The only people really capable of drawing him out of his comfort zone are Ritz and Meb... Both of which are question marks.

Hi Captain Obvious. Boy oh boy, you about covered every possibility there to make yourself sound like you know what you're talking about. "marathon is unpredictable" really?"may have problems" or not"almost certainly" key word is almost"far less likely (but not impossible)" could go either way, right? "fade badly" might, but might not

Citizen Runner wrote:

Montesquieu wrote:

. . . Farah, the best 5 and 10 guy in the world, in perfect conditions, in great shape, with self-described ideal training, did not break 2:08--not even a club (NOP) record. For all those who think it's so obvious Rupp can run a fast marathon and will have little trouble making our Olympic team, would you have bet the 2:08 over? . . .

The marathon is unpredictable and Rupp may have problems, but Mo ran 2:08 after splitting 1:03 at the half. The US trials is almost certainly going to be two minutes slower at the half which makes it far less likely (but not impossible) that Rupp is going to fade badly.

Citizen Runner wrote:

The marathon is unpredictable and Rupp may have problems, but Mo ran 2:08 after splitting 1:03 at the half. The US trials is almost certainly going to be two minutes slower at the half which makes it far less likely (but not impossible) that Rupp is going to fade badly.

I was about to post something similar. Farah also mentioned he messed up with a few fueling stations later in the race, which could explain some of his 63/65 splits.

Rupp is so much better than everyone else, he'll be able to relax and make sure he doesn't make any mistakes the first 20 miles. The only people really capable of drawing him out of his comfort zone are Ritz and Meb... Both of which are question marks.

No, Dathan and Meb are NOT question marks, but thanks for playing. Meb is older but also quite experienced going the distance. Dathan is ready. I live in Grand Rapids very near to Dathan's home (not actually in the city limits of Grand Rapids). If you think Dathan is a question mark, you are clueless as is Citizen Runner. Drawing him out of his comfort zone? Where did you come up with that? This board has all types!

Bubbadeeboo wrote:

Citizen Runner wrote:

The marathon is unpredictable and Rupp may have problems, but Mo ran 2:08 after splitting 1:03 at the half. The US trials is almost certainly going to be two minutes slower at the half which makes it far less likely (but not impossible) that Rupp is going to fade badly.

I was about to post something similar. Farah also mentioned he messed up with a few fueling stations later in the race, which could explain some of his 63/65 splits.

Rupp is so much better than everyone else, he'll be able to relax and make sure he doesn't make any mistakes the first 20 miles. The only people really capable of drawing him out of his comfort zone are Ritz and Meb... Both of which are question marks.

How many US men will go under 2:10 at the trials? Or even 2:12? Maybe that's the question. Sure, based on his 10,000m times, Rupp looks capable of eventually running 2:05-2:07 for the marathon so 2:10 or 2:12 for his first marathon would seem disappointing. But I suspect that's fast enough to be in the top 3 and make the team.

A couple major differences. Mo had paid rabbits to hold his hand and it was 30 degrees cooler.

Completely disagree with OP. I don't know who you are or when you were top 5 in us. But there is a huge difference between top 5 in the US and Rupp who has an Olympic medal. From a talent level he is so far above the rest of the field for the race. He's not going out there to set a fast debut time he's going to make the team and win the race. This isn't the same as when farah debuted in London. Rupp will take a far more conservative approach in this race and risk of disaster is much lower.

I think it far more likely he wins than he doesn't make the team.

Same here.

Close to 28:00 in the 10k. Never broke 2:20 in the marathon.

There is no question "if" he will make the 10Kilometer or the 26.2.

He's been in 26:48 shape at the drop of a hat!!!

Yes, the marathon is a wildcard. However, we are taking about the greatest long distance runner in U.S. History who is also very likely cheating.

I am not going to bet against a Rupp trials win. Meb is great still, but I don't think he is on Rupp's level at this point.

Same here.

Close to 26:40 in the 10k. Never broken 2:20 in the marathon.

With our similar 10k times, we have very similar marathon results!!!

Ahead of myself wrote:

Same here.

Close to 28:00 in the 10k. Never broke 2:20 in the marathon.

That's amazing. My friend Duane Spitz raced for years on the road and only managed to run 30:20, even though we had a State Bank 10k in our town that had Lindsay winning in 28:29 one year and had 4 guys under 30:00 every year. He never cracked 30:00.

He was always going to the Boston every Spring and 1-2 other marathons every year and he would run 2:21, 2:23, 2:24 in Boston. Not sure if he ever ran sub-2:20 at other races, but he ran 2:17 at the Orange Bowl Marathon in January. He beat Kjell-Erik Stahl!!

You reached a level that only about 5 US runners can each year in the 10k, and usually it is the same group of guys each year. Wish you could have made it higher in the marathon.

rojo wrote:

agip wrote:

anyone who can run a 3:50 mile is definitely going to have a very hard time the last 30 minutes of a marathon. Miler legs are different than marathoner legs.

.

Let's don't let facts get in the way of a good argument.

Eliud Kipchoge mile pb: 3:50.40.

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Geb ran 3:31 indoors. Certainly capable of probably 3:47 outdoor mile.

Bekele was capable of sub 3:50 mile

Those guys were pretty strong in their first marathons.