Now tha t Rupp is in. Who has the balls to break him?

Ritz bas never been tough enough to run through injuries like real men do.

wake up people wrote:

You guys are nuts.

Rupp will toy with the pack until 23, drop the hammer and let the JV pack slug it out to pick up the table scraps.

It doesn't matter if he's run a marathon or not, the Rupp can mop the floor with the other B listers.

No even close.

Rupp in 2:08:34.

2nd place just under 2:10.

Save this post.

don't like juiced rupp but agree

he's olympic 10k silver winner and marathon might be his best event

he's been held back on milage for years imaging if he cranks it up

Meb

tony da tiger wrote:

Meb

We will find out soon enough but I laugh every time people say Meb for the win. I honestly don't see him finishing in the top 5 and most definitely do NOT see him even coming close to competing with Rupp. I know, I know... he won this he placed well in that. But the bottom line is that he won in something like the slowest major marathon in 200 years and has only broken 2:10 once? Rupp just jogged (and by jogged I mean did he even break a sweat?) a half in 62.xx. Meb hasn't ran that time in 40 years.

I know Rupp has "no experience" in the marathon, but I still see him about 10 levels ahead of anyone else in the race. If he is in it for the win I give him a 99.9% chance of winning the race. He may be running for 3rd to conserve energy though.

I could be completely wrong, which is why they run the race. We will find out soon enough.

My predictions are:

1 - Rupp going for the win:

1. Rupp.

2. Ritz.

3. Chalenga.

Btw. Why is no one giving Chalenga any credit here? I see no one placing him higher than 5th. I anticipate him pushing the pace and breaking the field apart.

2 - Rupp conserving energy:

1. Ritz.

2. Chalenga.

3. Rupp.

You may be right, and Meb is older now but he is a silver medalist and 4th in the last Olympics. Hardly a JV runner even as a master.

yellow house wrote:

For a few reasons, I'm not sure Rupp is ready (or trying) to make that sort of statement in his debut. I expect he will do exactly enough work to get third.

I don't know why people say this kind of thing. Rupp won't settle for third if he can win. It would disrupt the aura of superiority that he has over other American runners and would not be good his ego. The only reason he would get second, third, or lower would be because he doesn't have it on the day. There is a slim possibility that he might not be good at the marathon despite being awesome at 10K and the half marathon, like Zersenay Tadese. But for someone of his level, I don't think it would be too much harder for him to win over getting third.

smile wrote:

Sloop John B wrote:

My prediction is that immediately ritz will have some lame excuse as per the usual about why things didn't go his way. Maybe blisters, but we'll have to see.

As per usual?

What excuses does Dathan consistently make? Examples please.

He´s talking a lot of braindead BS.

No one has to break Rupp, they have to finish in the top 3.

I remember OT Marathons that ended up being 3 guys making it to the finish line.

3rd is the same as 1st in this case.

Tha Usual BS wrote:

My predictions are:

1 - Rupp going for the win:

1. Rupp.

2. Ritz.

3. Chalenga.

Btw. Why is no one giving Chalenga any credit here? I see no one placing him higher than 5th. I anticipate him pushing the pace and breaking the field apart.

2 - Rupp conserving energy:

1. Ritz.

2. Chalenga.

3. Rupp.

My thoughts exactly. I'm as excited to see Sam's debut as Galen's.

runn wrote:

3rd is the same as 1st in this case.

Except for the prize money and accolades and whatnot.

I think anyone in position to win in the last mile is certainly going to try. What I think changes is if there is a pack of three clear of the field at 20 miles, then no one is going to try a crazy surge to break away until very late. The top three won't take a big risk until they know worst they can do is 3rd. That's why, no matter what, I hope there is not a break away of three people.

So I do agree that no one is going to try to "break" Rupp early on. I don't think that the pack is going to concede one spot to someone like Estrada if he makes an early move, however. If you are considered a contender, then I don't see the pack letting you get away, even solo, unless you go so hard that you are obviously going to blow up.

More likely, I could see a pack of 8 or so going out a bit harder than they would have liked, maybe like 2:08-high type pace and a second pack staying measured at 2:10-2:11 pace and hoping enough of the lead pack blows up to pick off the third spot.

Tha Usual BS wrote:

We will find out soon enough but I laugh every time people say Meb for the win. I honestly don't see him finishing in the top 5 and most definitely do NOT see him even coming close to competing with Rupp. I know, I know... he won this he placed well in that. But the bottom line is that he won in something like the slowest major marathon in 200 years and has only broken 2:10 once? Rupp just jogged (and by jogged I mean did he even break a sweat?) a half in 62.xx. Meb hasn't ran that time in 40 years.

Well fair is fair, I laugh every time I see Meb discounted and underestimated (which happens a lot, considering that he keeps proving the doubters wrong).

Now the first important fact is that times and projected PRs don't mean squat compared to beating people. Meb hasn't run Berlin or Dubai and the LA course is no Berlin or Dubai either (though less hilly than Meb might like).

In just the last 3.5 years (ignoring his silver medal), he's finished 4th at the London Olympics beating for instance Dos Santos who is a 59:33 / 2:06 guy, and won Boston 2014 over Chebet (a 59:14 / 2:05 guy) and Chepkwony (a 60:10 / 2:06 guy). In 2014 he was also 4th in NYC beating Kiprotich, Geoffrey Mutai, and Peter Kirui.

He's also had subpar races, but in not in championships and he also steps up when conditions are tough (for example heat).

Bottom line, Meb consistently beats guys with far better half/marathon credentials than anyone in this field. If he beats 59:30 guys on the East Coast why can't he beat 60:30 guys on the West?

Nope!! wrote:

smile wrote:

As per usual?

What excuses does Dathan consistently make? Examples please.

He´s talking a lot of braindead BS.

I will start with a lengthy dose of nostalgic Ritz love and then prove that Sloop John B is not spewing "braindead BS."

Ritz is my favorite runner, without question. I grew up in MI and it was actually a Ritzenhein race that got me into running. I had given track a try the previous Spring and kind of liked it. My dad, a runner, was excited that I was excited about this. During my 8th grade year, I wasn't sure if I was going to run again until my dad took me up to watch a very low-key high school indoor meet at Central Michigan University. He told me that there was a chance that one of the best HS runners in history would show up.

Sure enough, my dad pointed out Ritz when we arrived. I had never even seen or heard of him. Within an hour, he was my new idol. As things would turn out, there was no 3200m run scheduled for that meet. Thankfully, the race directors Ritz permitted to run in the 3200m relay event. He ended up WINNING (only a handful of teams) the event with a sub-8:50. I was shocked and became obsessed with running.

I remember reading some article about Ritz running a 4 mile time trial everyday as an 8th grader prepping for track. I started doing the same thing and went from 5:37 as a 7th grader to 5:02 as an 8th grader. I closely followed Ritz when he ran for Colorado and cried tears of joy when he won the NCAA XC title. During XC camp my junior year, I watched Ritz limp through the Olympics with a stress fracture as my teammates and I talked about how "badass" and tough he was for finishing. During the fall/winter of my senior year, Ritzenhein was running like never before and even got a feature in Sports Illustrated. Nothing could have made me happier.

I hope my affection for Ritz is obvious. That still does not mean that Sloop John B is wrong.

Ritz complained about blisters after his 62nd place finish in World XC in '05:

Ritz complained about cramps in at least a couple of different marathons. Here he mentions cramping during the Trials:

and here he complains about cramping in Chicago '13. He also acknowledges that cramping has a common problem he encounters during races:

I am not saying that I don't believe him. I think that his excuses are real and I hope it doesn't happen again. I want him to dominate the trials. He is my idol. Sloop John B has a point though.

I agree. Discount Meb at your own peril.

Meb, Ritz, Puksedra will keep the pace honest but not scorching. They know there aren't many guys that can run under 2:10, so they'd be pretty happy running 2:09 pace.

The question comes if one or more of the others wants to run 2:07 pace. That was Hall in 2012 but the others wouldn't have pushed it that early if he didn't. If Estrada, for example, forces the pace, things will get interesting and decisions will be made.

Either way, Rupp hangs out at literally tempo effort and probably runs away from the last couple guys over the final 5k. Anyone who doesn't believe that Rupp is supremely prepared for this is wrong. I don't think it will be the same beat down that Hall did in 2008, but the result will be the same. Rupp's final 5k will be his fastest and he will win.

Rupp, Meb, and Ritz are clearly the favorites. That said, I could see this race ushering in a new era of US marathoning with some new entrants taking down the old guard, despite strong performances by the vets. Envision a scenario where Rupp, Chelanga, Kibet, and Estrada take it out hard (sub 2:08 pace), forcing Meb and Ritz to run at PR pace. One or two of those three, I'm gonna say Rupp and Chelanga, hang on to that pace. Meb and Ritz run great races, say 2:09 range, but can't hang with the new guard and get nipped at the end by someone like Puskedra. This would be a great development for US marathoning. All that said, I think it's more likely that several of the new guard take it out hard only to crash and burn post mile 20, with Rupp and the vets cleaning up.

Ritz Fan wrote:

I am not saying that I don't believe him. I think that his excuses are real and I hope it doesn't happen again. I want him to dominate the trials. He is my idol. Sloop John B has a point though.

We can debate if they are excuses or explanations but yeah the fact is that when Ritz races marathons, he cramps up on a consistant basis (any race other than his 2:08 where it didn't happen?). I will not pretend to know why he cramps but after 10 or so years, it seems unlikely to be a problem that is going away anytime soon. If Ritz takes it out hard, he is far more likely to hurt himself than Rupp.

Thanks for the great story about Ritz running and winning a 3200m relay.

What an exciting marathon this is likely to be!!!!

Can't wait.

Riddle me this one wrote:

With no Ryan Hall, I don't think any American has the courage to keep the pace fast enough to make life rough on Galen.

Who do you think will keep it hot enough to break Galen? I say no one.

If you want to beat Galen.. his competitors need to make the first half fast... not so fast that they hit the wall in the second half. First half has to be an honest pace. Rupps going to try to make it slow in the first half and try to pour itvon in the second part of the race thats his plan

If you want to beat Galen.. his competitors need to make the first half fast... not so fast that they hit the wall in the second half. First half has to be an honest pace. Rupps going to try to make it slow in the first half and try to pour itvon in the second part of the race thats his plan

Faster they go, faster Rupp's debut time is going to be. I think Rupp get run his first marathon faster than Mo did in London. If Ritz pushes 4th 10k to 2:06-07 pace (30min range) Rupp is only one to go with him—he won't push the pace, but will win the trails no problem. I don't think Meb will make the team.