Now tha t Rupp is in. Who has the balls to break him?

It was Mo Trafeh

My prediction wrote:

Rupp will be dropped in the last 4 miles because of his inexperience. Experience trumps talent in the Trials.

Who exactly has won more ncaa championships, won more USA titles and made more international teams than Rupp? If you had said experience trumps talent in the marathon that is one thing, though well debunked. But you said "trials" and I don't think Rupp is lacking experience in big races, including trials.

Jimmyboy wrote:

Someone (5th to 10th seed) takes a solo flyer, and makes the team in 2:09:56.

Then the fun starts, with a pack of eight being whittled down by a pushing Meb, but it just drags everyone else along...

Down to four chasers vying for two spots in the final three miles.

Meb is the first to break.

Ritz begins to falter, and its Rupp and racer X pulling away from a flailing Ritz...

Rupp outkivks racer X for the second spot...

I just cant figure out who racer X is....

Meb's legs have gone... you know, tick tock tick tock and all that!

questionerofthingz wrote:

My prediction wrote:

Rupp will be dropped in the last 4 miles because of his inexperience. Experience trumps talent in the Trials.

Who exactly has won more ncaa championships, won more USA titles and made more international teams than Rupp? If you had said experience trumps talent in the marathon that is one thing, though well debunked. But you said "trials" and I don't think Rupp is lacking experience in big races, including trials.

Fairly obvious that he/she was referring to the Marathon.

somebloke wrote:

345elmore wrote:

Is Puskedra still in the NOP?

No. Try to catch up.

What is it with people saying 'try to catch up'?

It's an incredibly pathetic, mean spirited, weak thing to say.

Is anybody else pissed that this keeps coming up lately?

You guys are nuts.

Rupp will toy with the pack until 23, drop the hammer and let the JV pack slug it out to pick up the table scraps.

It doesn't matter if he's run a marathon or not, the Rupp can mop the floor with the other B listers.

No even close.

Rupp in 2:08:34.

2nd place just under 2:10.

Save this post.

Ridiculous! If what you're saying is true...that Alberto cloned Rupp, then the following scenario is more likely.

Bang! Gun goes off! Rupp1 tucks in behind Rupp2, followed closely by Rupp3 at a pedestrian 4:50 pace. Neither of the Rupps want to lead. The announcers can't figure out which Rupp is which because of the music chairs game they're playing. The pace slows bc Rupp does not want to lead. At mile marker 0.2 they are walking -- still refusing to take the lead. Eventually, they begin running backwards. Now speeding up bc technically first is now last, etc. They run the course in reverse in 2:04 but it's unofficial.

You heard it hear first LRC

Who can break Rupp? Arturo Barrios and German Silva as soon as the gun goes off. But they are retired.

The top 3 will come from these 6 runners (no particular order):Sam Chelanga, Luke P, Galen, Diego, Ritz, and Meb.

If Estrada is not stupid like he was in USA 10k outdoor, he will wait until about half way or around16miles in to break folks. Those around will hopefully follow. The six that I mention will be in contention with 6 miles to go. Someone like Jared Ward or Matt Llano will try to make it an honest race from the get go but not honest enough to drop the six that I mention. Cabada might try to push early as well but then will fall to 7th. I would bet my money on Vail to be up there but from his blog posts I doubt he is trying to do to much damage coming off an injury (shame). Probably expect the NAZ elite to have some sort of team strategy. My money is on Diego to put some hurt into these guys. As long as he is smart and patient.

madmandoc wrote:

I don't think the top marathoners are going to be too worried. Sure they wish Rupp was not there, but they have been to 22 miles before and they know he has not. It is not like Rupp can run 20 miles at 2:10 pace then just rattle off his usual 10k. The experienced marathoners just need to keep the pace realistic for them and then make a strong move at 22 or 23 miles and see if Rupp can handle it. Maybe he can, maybe not. Even Rupp does not know for sure.

Any top marathoner who isn't worried about Rupp is either stupid or conceding him a spot. Anyone who has run sub 61 for the HM is a threat to run sub 2:10 and be a contender. Realistically nobody is going to break Rupp. He should be able to run at a 2:07 pace for 20 miles and nobody in the field has shown the ability to handle pace like that. If Rupp could hold that pace or fold is an unknown.

In the normal case, Rupp should find the ~2:10 pace comfortable for 20 miles. After that is where the fun begins. Can he close with a 29 min 10k (i.e. runs a mid 2:08) or is he going to close in a 32 and fade to like a 2:12 (well I expect him to drop out if it clear he is't making the team). Both are pretty reasonable options.

I don't think betting the house on a debutante is a good idea. Rupp would not finish in the top 3 this time.

Jimmyboy wrote:

Someone (5th to 10th seed) takes a solo flyer, and makes the team in 2:09:56.

Then the fun starts, with a pack of eight being whittled down by a pushing Meb, but it just drags everyone else along...

Down to four chasers vying for two spots in the final three miles.

Meb is the first to break.

Ritz begins to falter, and its Rupp and racer X pulling away from a flailing Ritz...

Rupp outkivks racer X for the second spot...

I just cant figure out who racer X is....

Sam Chelanga

My prediction wrote:

Rupp will be dropped in the last 4 miles because of his inexperience. Experience trumps talent in the Trials.

^this

And Rupp doesn't have a huge marathon talent. He certainly won't break 2:10.

Even though the marathon is uncharted territory for Rupp, I doubt he will sit and kick. Instead, I think he will approach this race the same way he did the half where he qualified. Run it as a sub-maximal effort but still fast enough that few if any competitors can hang with him. Target something like 2:08 flat and think of it like a long training run. Unless he has a really bad day or is poorly suited to the marathon, he will be able to sustain such a pace and in all likelihood no one else will be able to stay with him, especially if Rupp can put the hammer down over the last 5k in the off chance he still has company at that point. But this strategy assumes that Rupp controls the pace. Someone like Kibet could really shake things up and go out in 1:03 or something crazy. If that happens, it would be interesting to see how Rupp, and the rest of the field for that matter, responds.

Kibetcha wrote:

Target something like 2:08 flat and think of it like a long training run.

LOL. Delusions.

Mo couldn't run faster than 2:08 in a major race after two years of preparations. And he's faster than Rupp over long distances.

Since Ritz has actually run 2:07:47, I think he has the ability to run at 2:07 pace for 20 miles. However, I'd be shocked if the first 5k is under 15:45 and even more shocked if the first half is under 65. Only three guys in the field have run under 2:11.

read my lips wrote:

Kibetcha wrote:

Target something like 2:08 flat and think of it like a long training run.

LOL. Delusions.

Mo couldn't run faster than 2:08 in a major race after two years of preparations. And he's faster than Rupp over long distances.

Fair point, but he went out at 2:06 pace in that race. At 10k, Farah is better than Rupp, but not by as much of a margin as at shorter distances. Rupp has a chance at beating or at least being competitive with Farah at 10k, but not at 1500. At >10k we don't have enough data to draw any conclusions about how they compare.

It isn't clear the Ritz is remotely in that type of shape anymore. You have to ask what is in it for Ritz to do something like that? It would improve his chance of winning but it would drastically lower his chance of making the team. Ritz is a good bet to run a 2:10 which puts you in contention to make the team and his leg speed for something like a fast last 2-3 miles is as good as anyone other than Rupp. Take it out in 2:07 and you up the odds of running s 2:13+ which means no team for him. Meb is in pretty much the same boat.

Now there are alternatives (i.e. they run something like a 66 opening half, and then someone starts running 4:50s at mile 17 as part of a surge) which would leave guys like Rupp and Ritz with an interesting choice to make.

If it turns out Rupp is a marathoner (i.e. a guy with 27 min 10k speed is a 2:06 marathoner), there is nothing that anyone in the field can to him. If it turns out his best distance is 10k-hm, then their is no need to try and break him. Just run your standard 2:10-2:11 and see how things turn out.

asdfads wrote:

Now there are alternatives (i.e. they run something like a 66 opening half, and then someone starts running 4:50s at mile 17 as part of a surge) which would leave guys like Rupp and Ritz with an interesting choice to make.

Sleazy will give Rupp an intricate race plan which he will fail to execute. Face it, Rupp isn't very smart. The best thing he can do is to not think. Instead he should just hang onto Meb as long as he can.

I don't believe Ritz will win just based on his quote of the day a while back about how running is extremely hard on the body. I'll have to dig it up, but it was about Webb and Hall. I think the quote showed he is pondering retirement.

1) Rupp

2) Meb

3) Luke