Bummer Bob wrote:
Rupp will go under 4:45 at the 6th mile and lose everyone
That would not drop anyone in the sixth mile.
Its probably going to run a lot like the 2012 trials if you remember those. A group of 6 runners will break off within the first 5 miles (after about a 24:10 start). They will run hard until mile 18 and then they will be down to 4 runners. They will just run consistently and one will drop off and the three remaining runners will be content to just race the last mile to determine a champ, none of them want to risk falling apart when its down to three runners.
The six will be (in no particular order)
Chelanga
Meb
Ritz
Puskedra
Estrada
(mystery man)
I don't think Rupp is going to run. He is only one year removed from being the top 10k runner in the world, he wouldn't throw that away.