I'm surprised that no one has directly referenced Iguider. Fast 1500m guy (better PR than Centro) who doubled at the Olympics in 2012. He just barely beat Centro for bronze, so similar ability nonetheless. Then he doubled for the 5000m. Not sure if it was all the qualifying runs for both distances, or if it was just another example of a 1500m guy who can't quite hack it at 5000m, but in the final lap of the 5000m final Iguider had nothing left with 100m to go, despite being in that ridiculous 6-man fight from 400m out.
So, would Centro be a medal-contender? Eh, maybe for bronze on a good day. Is he a good hope for gold? Nope.
Good point. I think Iguider could be REALLY dangerous over the 5k eventually (he's medalled in the 1500 globally 5 times indoors and out). This past year we saw him go 3:28 and take a world bronze, and then run 12:59 for 3rd in the DL final (beating all of the top Kenyans too). I'd say he's much faster than he was in 2012, given the blazing times he ran this past year. I think he's gotta be seen as much more of a medal threat than Centro in a 5k, let alone the 1500. He's beaten Centro in every global 1500 final besides 2011, and sure seems to have more 5k ability too - he's also run in the 7:30's for 3000 a few times too.