Drew Hunter's coach predicts 3:55/8:2X this spring

First of all, different terrain, and weren't the Oklahoma guys running 6 repeats?

Besides that, Fernandez & the others were pacing through the workout, not racing it.

LOL. Arguing "how many Angels can fit on the head of a pin?" Both of his time that day at the CSM were AMAZING! "Only?" 8:38, you say....OK.

I seem to recall it being 5-6 repeats as well. That's a totally different ball game than doing 3.

Not the same workout wrote:

First of all, different terrain, and weren't the Oklahoma guys running 6 repeats?

Besides that, Fernandez & the others were pacing through the workout, not racing it.

Speed is the limiting factor in any race, obviously the longer the race the less of a factor it is. However, even the world's best marathoner had good credentials at shorter distances and some of them where even world class miler in the early part of their careers. Notwithstanding the recent athletes who went straight to the marathon, Bill Rodgers, KK and Hall are the only world class marathoners I can think of who did not have success at shorter distances. The point is, how fast you can run at a shorter distance gives a good indication of your potential at the next distance. Drew is definitely strong, but perhaps no more so than Lindgren, Pre, Virgin, Ritz, Rupp, Solinski, Fernandez, LV, Ches or Fisher, but unless you can run a sub-1:50 or thereabouts, there is almost not way you are going to run a 3:55 mile. Ryun and Webb were able to run super fast miles in H.S. primarily because they were also great 800 runners. I am sure Drew can run a good 800, but I am almost certain he is not a sub-1:50 type for the simple fact that there is almost know way a H.S. kid who thinks he can run a fast 800 is not going to run one...athletes always think they can run faster at a shortern distance than they can and don't pass up the opportunity to prove it.

With all of that said, Hunter has far more upside in the 2-mile, I can see him in the mid-8:30s and about 4:02 in an indoor mile and just under 4 outdoors. Those are reasonable expectations based on what I have seen so far.

He should go after the 13:37 5k record. If he is truly in 3:55 shape then 13:37 should be doable. We still have yet to get a world class highschool 5k boys runner (still in HS).

Gerry Lindgren was the last person to be a world class 5k runner in HS.

That course record probably accidentally cut off a chunk of the course. There's lots of places where a simple mistake could take of 15-20 seconds. In that case the fastest credible time would be Chris Solinsky.

Bell curve wrote:

I feel like these predictions from his coach are damage control after a disappointing race on Saturday.

Ignorant psuedocoach wrote:

Agreed.

The so called coach screwed up Drew's race with bad advice, and is showing his ignorance.

I'm assuming you've both been around long enough to know who his coach is and know Tinman's presence and the respect he has on this board, correct? You do know that "his coach" is not just some dude pulling numbers out of his @ss, correct?

Watch the video with a grain of salt; his athlete just won the HS XC National Title. I think we'd all be a little excited and chatty. Regardless, he's coaching a massive talent who will likely run +/- 4min and under 8:40; I don't think you can slight him too much for his predictions.

That'd be dope

Where does this door go? wrote:

I'm assuming you've both been around long enough to know who his coach is and know Tinman's presence and the respect he has on this board, correct? You do know that "his coach" is not just some dude pulling numbers out of his @ss, correct?

Translation, the majority of posters here didn't put up with his ridiculous theories, and that's why he left.

Ryan is also the only hs miler to ever run sub 4 as a Junior. Most of his sub 4 efforts were also run on cinder tracks with inferior shoes. Webb was perfectly paced to a 3:53 at Prefontaine but Ryan had no rabbits and beat Olympian Peter Snell while in hs. He also broke the mile wr twice--something that no American since has come close to.

LRC vet wrote:

Lenny Leonard wrote:

He was phenomenal last year without maxing out his training. He hasn't gotten injured and has progressed ever so slightly in fitness. A 5-6 sec drop in the mile and 13-15 second drop in the 2 mile is not unrealistic.

Would you say a kid hoping to go from 4:20 down to 4:14 in the mile was trying to hard for a high schooler?

Exactly. Looking for Pat Casey to get down to 3:46 this year.

Pat Casey is a grown man. I'm talking about a runner going from age 17-18.

Also, people realize Hunter ran 1:52 last year? He will likely be in the 1:50 range this year if he attempts it.

Is it just me or does Tinman seem like the kind of guy who has spent his entire life having a hard time getting laid?

Kev2 wrote:

Ryan is also the only hs miler to ever run sub 4 as a Junior. Most of his sub 4 efforts were also run on cinder tracks with inferior shoes. Webb was perfectly paced to a 3:53 at Prefontaine but Ryan had no rabbits and beat Olympian Peter Snell while in hs. He also broke the mile wr twice--something that no American since has come close to.

Ryun was a flake. You know why everybody talks about his amazing high school performances? Because after that, he went down fast. Looks like running out of his mind in his meaningless years really did him wonders...

Using the milesplit time converter, a 3:55.99 mile would convert to a 3:38.57 1500m time (3:53.62 1600). Only one NCAA DI runner ran faster than 3:39 (Chad Noelle 3:38.55, Payton Jordan) last year (according to TFRRS). Is Hunter on the same level as Chad Noelle was in spring? I'd say no. He'll run 3:58-3:59.

Based on what he ran at Footlocker South this year it was pretty clear he was in 14:55 shape and the record was never within reach.

Sure, it's 19 seconds faster than FL last year, but it's not correct to say all the difference in fitness has come after his track season. In fact we would expect a greater increase in fitness from FL '14 to Track '15 then we would see from Track '15 to FL '15.

Based on his progression we should expect a 3:57 1600 and 8:33 3200. He is in about 8:38 3200 shape right now based on his 14:55 at FLN and 14:14c FLS race.

3:55 for the mile is way out of reach. He will struggle to break 4:00 for the mile in an all-HS race.

This is not a knock on him. He's phenomenally talented, but when you are a 1:52.98 800 meter guy you can't really expect to run the equivalent of 3:38 for 1500m.

People read too much into Hunter's 1:52.98. He ran that shortly after a 4:03 1600. At USATF juniors, he closed the last 800 in 1:51--off of a slow pace, to be sure, but still, even running 2 laps at 5k pace negates the effect of running a flying 800. He appeared to be good for 1:50 or high 1:49 last year. Coupled with extreme endurance, his mile time shouldn't be discounted.

Why are you holding his 800 time static to the 2015 best while talking about his fitness in 2016? You have no idea what you are talking about.

Thank you for that posting to the footlocker website and his coaches remarks.

I have been talking to Craig Virgin since April about putting together an article for Running Times or another leading magazine like that. Virgin's biography should be coming out in the next few weeks and we want to get something in to build it up.

Drew Hunter will probably be featured in the story.

I should also mention that Drew Hunter's Dad was a teammate in World CC with Craig Virgin. So Virgin knows the family, and was at one time the record holder in the 2 mile. Virgin broke Pre's record.