Rupp solo 1:01:20 half marathon today in Portland

DS wrote:

WHY DOES EVERYONE CONTINUALLY BRING UP TADESE as a failed Marathoner?

Do you realize he ran 2:10?? If Rupp runs 2:10, he makes the team. So even if Rupp is a FAILED marathoner, he still makes the team.

And here's the deal: Rupp won't be a failed marathoner. He will be great.

If a guy who has the HM WR only manages 2:10 it´s a failure. Do you think 2:10 is some kind of world class time? This is not the 1970s.

Slow race/fast kick wrote:

Rupp and Salazar had over 3 yrs since London to hone Rupp's gear shifting tactics to win races and if anything he has regressed. Rupp is simply no Mo. He doesn't have it, he can't dominate like Mo has.

Of course.

Nobody else besides Mo can either though. Rupp, at least in terms of kicking, did not seem as good this year, I agree.

As I said, I think it's unlikely Rupp will learn at this point how to change gears on a dime. It's probably just something he can't do, not every runner can.

I give a little better probability than you do for a silver (nobody is stopping Mo) because I still think he might be able to do something if he starts winding up races hard at 600m, allowing him to ease into his topspeed instead of getting gapped by a big acceleration on the backstretch. Slim? Yea, but not so slim I'm willing to discount it.

rcs retired wrote:

Excited about a guy running 2:00 slower than his ability? No.

so if he runs 2:07 and wins gold in Rio, you'll scoff in disappointment, if only because you believe he should be running more quickly?

the point is, american marathoners aren't exactly lighting it up these days... and i personally think Rupp could potentially do something special. i don't think 1:01 is special for him... i'm not lauding the performance within the context of his overall potential. i'm saying dude went out and ran a road race (likely without specific preparation) and put in one of the best half times america has seen in years, generating buzz (excitement!) about what he could do at the trials (and beyond).

i just want to see what he can do, and believe he has the best chance of getting americans excited about a good-to-great performance in the olympic marathon.

(I'm not responding directly bradley strider, just didn't feel like clicking back to the beginning.)

So...the marathon...in Rio de Janeiro. IT WILL BE HOT AS F***, AND HUMID AS F***. The time-trial / "speed" limitations of Americans in the marathon are irrelevant. What America needs to be searching for is a guy who can run about the same times in 65, 75, and 85 degree weather. That's the reality -- that he needs to be a guy who is NOT very affected by heat; a guy who sweats his b*lls off in just about every race, no matter what the temperature, without consequence. THAT'S the kind of guy who is going to win in Rio, THAT'S the kind of guy who is going to medal in Rio.

I have no indication that Rupp can handle the heat & humidity together. Even if he can, training in Oregon is NOT going to get it done. Training in Florida is going to get it done.

Many times, the best marathoner chokes in the heat and humidity. Look at Paula in Athens. Or Kenenisa in the 2007 XC Championships in Mombasa. Or Kenya's super-star 'dream-team' from the 2015 World Championships men's marathon.

In fact, the only country that has shown that they can produce athletes who consistently handle both the heat and humidity well at the same time is Eritrea. It's seriously going to be a bloodbath for a TON of top athletes in Rio, for that reason.

Rupp has the potential to be a great marathoner, but almost any other marathon is a better choice than this exact marathon (Rio, 2016).

In the 10,000, Kamworor and the Kenyans are going to throw everything they can at Mo in Rio. They might actually break him enough that his kick is down to Rupp's level, and Rupp might be able to beat 2 of the Kenyans, or maybe even all 3 and Mo as well. But then again, it'll be hot & humid in that race, as well.

So what's better in the heat & humidity: shorter race but faster pace? Or slower pace but longer race? That's what Rupp and Salazar have to ask themselves in 2016. Rupp's Olympic choice should be whichever Olympic distance that he feels the effects of the heat & humidity the least.

The Rio marathon is going to be slow. I'm confident 2:08 will take gold. Why? Because it's going to be hot and humid. The pack will run slowly until the ral racing begins somewhere around mile 18.

Whoever can manage a decent time in soupy hot weather will win. Not sure those are the best conditions for Rupp, but I sure would love to see him medal.

DC Wonk wrote:

The Rio marathon is going to be slow. I'm confident 2:08 will take gold. Why? Because it's going to be hot and humid. The pack will run slowly until the ral racing begins somewhere around mile 18.

Whoever can manage a decent time in soupy hot weather will win. Not sure those are the best conditions for Rupp, but I sure would love to see him medal.

A 2,08 championship marathon is not "slow".

I hope Rupp runs the marathon trials. He could moonwalk the last mile and still win by several minutes. Forget debut race appearance fees, the guy has enough money already. He should start his marathon career now so he can make two Olympics in the distance.

He'd probably run in the 2:06 range, right? Second and third place finishers would be 3-4 minutes behind him.

I just want to see what he can do and it would make the Trials a heck of a lot more entertaining. Otherwise we'll watch a lead pack of twelve 2:10 guys running the whole way.

eotbs wrote:

So...the marathon...in Rio de Janeiro. IT WILL BE HOT AS F***, AND HUMID AS F***.

Really? Do you realize it is winter in Rio in August? The average high temperature in Rio in August is 76 degrees Fahrenheit. The schedule I see shows the marathon starting at 9:30 in the morning, when it should be cooler than that. While it certainly won't be Berlin type conditions, it will very likely be cooler than the 2008 Olympic marathon was.

Rupp is a great runner and great competitor. But I think his best attribute is his efficiency, which is probably why he doesn't quite finish where we hope he will in the more erratic diamond league 5Ks and Olympic track races. Think about when he ran both of his 10K records. He looked smooth and relaxed almost the entire way. I think his 5K pb at PRE, which was not the ideal venue for a pb at 5K, was a fairly even races as well that had a nice grind up on pace at the end. His half marathons look like comfortable tempo runs for most of us.

I do agree that you have no idea what he can do in a marathon until he actually runs one, but I think it may suit him very damn well.

Perspectivation wrote:

I do agree that you have no idea what he can do in a marathon until he actually runs one, but I think it may suit him very damn well.

Wasn't the consensus his training partners' debut was a disappointment, eighth place? If anything, wouldn't that discourage Rupp from trying it?

Having said that, Mo's going to run the 10000, so maybe the marathon is a good choice if it suits him better than it did for Mo. Mo put everything into that marathon though...

Go for another silver OR take a risk on the marathon?

Well,. wrote:

DS wrote:

WHY DOES EVERYONE CONTINUALLY BRING UP TADESE as a failed Marathoner?

Do you realize he ran 2:10?? If Rupp runs 2:10, he makes the team. So even if Rupp is a FAILED marathoner, he still makes the team.

And here's the deal: Rupp won't be a failed marathoner. He will be great.

If a guy who has the HM WR only manages 2:10 it´s a failure. Do you think 2:10 is some kind of world class time? This is not the 1970s.

Improved PED testing is making 2:10 look better than it has in some years.

asdfgh wrote:

eotbs wrote:

So...the marathon...in Rio de Janeiro. IT WILL BE HOT AS F***, AND HUMID AS F***.

Really? Do you realize it is winter in Rio in August? The average high temperature in Rio in August is 76 degrees Fahrenheit. The schedule I see shows the marathon starting at 9:30 in the morning, when it should be cooler than that. While it certainly won't be Berlin type conditions, it will very likely be cooler than the 2008 Olympic marathon was.

The temperature fluctuates so little, year-round, in Rio, that it's almost meaningless to mention that it's technically winter there.

That aside, the data I'm looking at shows daily high in August as 77.7 F, daily low as 66 F. So it'll probably be around 72 at 9:30 am, and 75-76 at the finish. 76 is not terribly hot outright, but it will NOT be a race-condition that these guys are used to. All over the LRC boards, it's constantly said that the ideal temperature for marathoning is much lower (in the 40's, F). Some argue a bit higher, but no one is saying that it's anywhere near 76 F.

On top of that, how hot something feels is VERY different from the actual temperature. THIS IS WHY I MADE SURE TO TALK ABOUT TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY CONCURRENTLY IN MY POST. The average relative humidity in Rio in August is 77%. That, along with a temperature of 72-76 will feel like mid-80's or greater, and have worse effects. ...and then, on top of all that, there will likely be full sun...which will make it feel even hotter.

When comparing this to Beijing, here are the numbers I have:

2015 Beijing WC Marathon: Aug. 22nd, 2015: low of 69 F, high of 91 F, averate humidity of 59%, competition started at 7:35am locally

2008 Beijing Oly. Marathon: Aug. 24th, 2015: low of 69 F, high of 90 F, average humidty of 62%, competition started at 7:30am locally

For reference:

2004 Athens Oly. Marathon, Men's: 80 F at start, 40% relative humidity at start, race begun at 6pm locally

2004 Athens Oly. Marathon, Women's: 86 F at start, 50% relative humidity at start, race begun at 6pm locally

So, although there have been a bit hotter temperatures, none of those marathons have had an expected humidity of 77%. It'll feel way hotter and more oppressive than any of the historic marathon conditions listed above, and nothing you posted concretely proves otherwise.

Why does everyone think the only way for Rupp to beat Mo is to run a 52 last 400? How about doing something (surging, negative split) the other 24 laps.

Marathon training might even increase Rupp's strength enough to do this.

One drawback to all this marathon talk is I doubt Rupp has ever ran over 15mi. in a single run?

The temperature fluctuates so little, year-round, in Rio, that it's almost meaningless to mention that it's technically winter there

Actually it does vary a lot. I lived in rio between 2012-2014 and every summer there were more than a few days with max temperature over 110F.

coachkritter wrote:

Why does everyone think the only way for Rupp to beat Mo is to run a 52 last 400? How about doing something (surging, negative split) the other 24 laps.

Marathon training might even increase Rupp's strength enough to do this.

One drawback to all this marathon talk is I doubt Rupp has ever ran over 15mi. in a single run?

Why on Earth would you assume a runner of his caliber has never run over 90-100 minutes? That's just dumb. I would assume EVERY world class runner with a specialty as long as 10K, REGULARLY does 2 hr+ runs. Two hours isn't even a particularly long run. But it is aerobic building and an endurance staple. You're Welcome.

If Bekele can run 2:05 in:

-bad conditions

-a debut

-being past his prime (probably couldn't break 27 at the moment)

-coming from a 5/10k background

then why can't Rupp do the same?

Honestly, Rupp is the GOAT American.

Rupp should run in the marathon trials. Treat it as hard tempo over-distance run and he easily finishes in the top 3. Then focus on 10k training until the track trials. Run a couple tune- ups in Europe, peak for Rio. He runs the 10, recovers then runs the marathon a few days later- He will be 30, he's ready, he has the endurance, he had the track speed, why not? Waiting 4 more years till the next Olympiad will be a huge mistake. Do it now. Strike while the iron is hot.

Back to reality, of course Salazar would never allow his boy to run a marathon now. No way, no how, forget it. Rupp will do the 5/10 double again. He will get smoked in the 5 and maybe do better in the 10 but not medal. Ho hum.

Correction: ...has the track speed...

"The problem with American distance running is Americans run too damn many races." Joe Newton, York HS, Elmhurst, IL