Addressing the question of where the Olympic gold is more likely for Mr. Rupp:
Let's say Kamworor, Tanui and Karoki use a frontrunning tactic again against Mo (or other Kenyans, but I do see Tanui and Kamworor in there. I assume Kamworor is in the Olympic 10000.)
They came close to Mo this summer past at worlds, and they know it's their only chance to beat Farah. They come in fit and motivated next summer. They take it out fast, and share the work. They are out there busting balls, let's assume!
It's possible that Rupp is better able to stand the pace than Mo, who is 33 at the games. This super strong Rupp, he'll likely be ready to kick past the Kenyans too. There are many variables, but this is possible.
On the other hand, the marathon is unpredictable on a given day, who can say? However, I predict right now that your 2016 Olympic gold medalist is Eluid Kipchoge. I'd be delighted to see this great man cap off his career with an Olympic gold.
I'd rather see Galen run the 1500 at indoor worlds that the marathon trial. Get that 2012 kick back!