Dark Horses for 2016 Olympic Marathon Trials

FastJogger wrote:

kara

Here's a question for you guys - of the guys on the starting line in February, how many do you think are doping?

I don't get how Jared Ward can win the US road series title, the US marathon title, and everything else he has run, and not even be mentioned in the post at all. He's had a great year. He will be in the mix.

I am surprised no one mentioned Meb Farah yet? Didn't he win a gold medal in London? Why no love for him? Don't you consider him real American because he was born in Ethiopia?

Mark Conover

readrun wrote:

[quote]Primo Numero Uno wrote:

2:10 is pretty much out of the question for them, but 2:12:30, which would have gotten fourth in 2008, is an outside possibility, especially for Hampton.

http://www.usatf.org/events/2008/OlympicTrials-Marathon-Men/results.asp

I think the trials will be slow in 2016. Ryan Hall pushed the pace hard in 2008 and 2012, causing a lead pack to separate pretty early and pushing everyone to pretty fast times. This year, I honestly think everyone would just let Ryan go if he pushed the pace early. Meb is running on a short turnaround. Ritz is nursing a hip injury. Both will probably just be running to try to safely get a spot on the team. And it is now common knowledge that Hall has heath problems and will more like DNF than break 2:10. I think 2:11-2:12 will be the target pace, which will open up the field a lot.

If the pace is that slow, it could truly be anyone's race.

Dingler wrote:

Sorry, but even "if everything goes their way" none of the 2:15-2:17 guys you listed are even close to 2:10, which is probably what it will take to make the team...

Agreed that none of the 2:15 - 2:17 guys are close to 2:10.

Disagree that it will take 2:10 to make the team. Most likely 3rd place at the trials will be 2:12:xx

honey stanger wrote:

top guys will be IMO

in no order

Meb

Ritz

Hall

...

Hall??? What have you been smoking?

To be honest a guy like Aaron Rono has a good shot, 2nd at the Pan Am 10k and a guy who likes to push the pace. Hes my dark horse. The 3 I think will make it however are Ritz, Meb, and Puskedra. I am rooting for Abdi and Hall as they hold a special place in my heart.

Old age will catch up to Meb, Ritz, Abdi, and Hall and we will have three first time olympians in our midst.

1. Estrada (first time as an American at least)

2. Chelanga

3. Pennell

Agree to Disagree wrote:

honey stanger wrote:

top guys will be IMO

in no order

Meb

Ritz

Hall

...

Hall??? What have you been smoking?

PREDICTIONS:

Hall wins the trials in a spectacular come back effort, goes on to a gutsy performance in rio but not quite good enough for a medal- maybe 7th. He then finishes and releases the HIGHLY anticipated 41st day documentary and everyone who bought a copy back in, what, 2012? loves it so much they don't even care how long they had to wait.

-or-

He disappears with all our money back to Kenya and has a long, sexless marriage with his spud of a wife, Sara

I really like Diego Estrada's chances. I've read a couple articles where he's seemed super confident to run the marathon. His Houston half was impressive, and he always looks relaxed and strong late in races. I think Ritz and Meb are the two locks. Honestly, I think it's anyone's race after that.

I wouldn't count out Jared Ward, especially with Eyestone training him somewhere up in the mountains.

2:12 in that heat last year isn't too shabby.

bahston runnah wrote:

@readrun

How in the world can you post about New England dark horses for the OT Marathon and completely ignore the only NE dark horse that actually has a good chance at making the team? Tim Richie is the only runner you should have named.

This.

Dingler wrote:

The 2:12 range guys like Egleston, Arcinaga, Vail and Cabada are the "if everything goes their way" guys.

Eggleston: 2:10:52

Arciniaga: 2:11:30

Vail: 2:10:57

Cabada: 2:11:36

Whattabout... wrote:

I wouldn't count out Jared Ward, especially with Eyestone training him somewhere up in the mountains.

2:12 in that heat last year isn't too shabby.

Jared Ward is the new Brian Sell. Don't sell him short.

Danny Tapia - you heard it here first.

My money is on Pennel.

Genius...all three are now US Citizens. Ignorant or Xenophobic? Hard to tell.