I heard on a podcast today with Bernard Lagat that his goal is to make the team in Rio in the 5000m.
What are his chances at age 41?
I heard on a podcast today with Bernard Lagat that his goal is to make the team in Rio in the 5000m.
What are his chances at age 41?
His chances aren't bad.
He ran 13:14 last year plus a 3:54 mile and 7:37 3000.
Given his experience, I'd say he has a near 50 percent chance of making the team.
Well, maybe closer to 40%.
As long as he stays healthy, I think he'll do it. Lagat is an expert racer, one of the best there has ever been, and he almost always has it when it really matters. He's not on lock, but I think he has a good chance at making the team in a slow or fast race.
He has a slim (1%) chance if it is a 13:30-14:00 jogfest with a fast last 600 meters. If Ben True or someone similar makes it an honest race, his odds drop to < 0.1%.
Here's the link to that podcast.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-10-bernard-lagat/id1035155582?i=358104124&mt=2
He has a better chance at the 10000. Rupp is the only 100% lock.
I agree. I think he has a better shot in the 10k. Good luck to him either way
fastpacker wrote:
He has a slim (1%) chance if it is a 13:30-14:00 jogfest with a fast last 600 meters. If Ben True or someone similar makes it an honest race, his odds drop to < 0.1%.
When was the last time USAs was NOT a 13:30 jogfest? Lagat will blow True's doors off...
daddy can still kick wrote:
When was the last time USAs was NOT a 13:30 jogfest? Lagat will blow True's doors off...
No kidding. Remember that time when the race was almost 15:00?
Definitely agree he has a better shot at the 10k. All he has to do is sit on the 3rd guy and kick past him. Hardest part is getting the standard.
KipforPrez wrote: What are his chances at age 41?
His chances are excellent.
Signed, Regina J.
Star wrote:
His chances aren't bad.
He ran 13:14 last year plus a 3:54 mile and 7:37 3000.
Given his experience, I'd say he has a near 50 percent chance of making the team.
Well, maybe closer to 40%.
No, closer to zero percent. Lagat ran those times at age 40, but he will inexorably decline each year. We can expect that Lagat will not be able to break 13:20 in 2016. He also won't be able to run faster than 3:56 or 7:40. He would be maxing out trying to run 13:20 and he won't have much of a kick in a 13:40 race, not compared to the young guns who can run 13:10 and will be able to also run a faster mile than Lagat.
Also, Lagat's 3:54 was 3:54.91 and his 7:37 was 7:37.92 and BOTH were run indoors when he was younger, in terms of months, and he was not able to run as fast outdoors.
The 13:14 was 13:14.97 and it was at Pre in May. Lagat is clearly not going to make the Olympic team next year. Months matter at his age, and he is more likely to run 13:25 next year than 13:15.
mefireo wrote:
...were run indoors when he was younger, in terms of months....
LOL ... Really? Months? Does ventolin's calculator factor in months into the maths? If not, then your are an idiot for inventing a month metric.
Klu Les wrote:
mefireo wrote:...were run indoors when he was younger, in terms of months....
LOL ... Really? Months? Does ventolin's calculator factor in months into the maths? If not, then your are an idiot for inventing a month metric.
Months matter. How stupid are you? Who wins a running race, a typical 13 month old vs. a typical 23 month old? You must be really stupid, beyond idiotic. Sad. Months matter in decline as well. Tragic that you are so dense.
Your ignorance continues to show.
mefireo wrote:
Months matter.
I am ignoring the rest of your post. Pointless.
This is the part that is interesting. It's a great idea. How do we go about making age adjustment based months? Improvement until age X. Plateau at age Y. Decline at age Z.
Klu Les wrote:
Your ignorance continues to show.
I am MUCH smarter than you, to the point that we CANNOT interact with any degree of success. Months are units which comprise a year. Therefore, if years matter, then months, as units of years, matter as well. Lagat's margin for making an Olympic team is so slim that months do matter, and they now add up to being deleterious for his chances. Time will vindicate me, and the smarter people recognize that. You, on the other hand...
P.S. Somebody just registered my name so I have added an o.
I agree, man you are stupid.
Months Matter wrote:
mefireo wrote:Months matter.
I am ignoring the rest of your post. Pointless.
This is the part that is interesting. It's a great idea. How do we go about making age adjustment based months? Improvement until age X. Plateau at age Y. Decline at age Z.
This is a great idea.
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
Running for Bowerman Track Club used to be cool now its embarrassing
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
Rest in Peace Adrian Lehmann - 2:11 Swiss marathoner. Dies of heart attack.