webby wrote:
Wondering what you put the odds at? Is 1/10th of one percent trivial of nontrivial?
Such a complex thing to put any odds in. So many factors go into it from technological progress assumptions, societal attitudes, funding, etc.
I think if we really were focused on doing it in the same we were say...getting to the moon, I'd go as high as 25%. Maybe 50% if you were born in 2010s.
As it is now, maybe 1%. Five years ago I would have said 0.001% type of thing, but there are some things making me change my mind, aside from just being more aware of technological growth being more exponential than linear. The biggest of these is that people are starting to realize such a thing is possible. Which means more awareness, focus, and funding. It's significant enough that Google was willing to plunk down $1.5 billion to help start/fund a company called Calico to more or less work on this specific problem. Significant to me because if a major company is going to invest in something they don't view it as a mythical objective that maybe could be accomplished in the distant future.
If we get the breakthrough that makes it irrevocably clear to everyone that it's possible within a realistic timeframe (say 20-30 years), I'd think that would bring the percentage up into the double digits.